Net Zero

1. LNG battle lines
2. Permitting reform collapses
3. Coal piles up
4. Record coal demand
5. New renewables target

The case for factory farms.

Experts question Biden’s parting shot at Trump

A top US energy expert thinks the Biden administration missed the mark in its long-awaited study of US natural gas exports, arguing that pushback on a key element of President-elect Donald Trump’s fossil fuel ambitions will end up hurting the economy.

The Department of Energy study, published Tuesday, casts expansion of the liquefied natural gas industry as a dire economic and environmental risk, warning that such a move would cause domestic energy prices and global greenhouse gas emissions to spike. Maintaining the current pace of exports is “neither sustainable nor advisable,” said Energy Secretary Jennifer Granholm.

But Daniel Yergin, vice chairman of the research firm S&P Global and a preeminent energy historian, disagrees. In a lengthy analysis of the US LNG market, Yergin and his colleagues argue that expanding LNG exports is an unalloyed boon to both the US economy and national security. He told Semafor that holding back the sector will cost the US tens of thousands of jobs, empower Russian President Vladimir Putin, and slow the pace of decarbonization in coal-reliant countries in Asia.

Permitting reform collapses

Negotiations over a bipartisan, bicameral deal to overhaul US energy infrastructure permitting fell apart this week. Sen. Joe Manchin (I-WV) had led talks that aimed to make it easier to build both clean energy and fossil fuel projects. Despite widespread agreement in Washington that lawmakers’ prolonged failure to agree on a permitting overhaul has become a major strain on the US energy system, House of Representatives Speaker Mike Johnson (R-La.) decided to kill the talks in the hope that a deal much more favorable to fossil fuels will be possible next year when Republicans control all of Congress and the White House.

US power plants have too much coal

Coal reserves are piling up to record levels at US power plants, an indication of the financial and environmental consequences of the energy transition.

Coal reserves are piling up to record levels at US power plants, an indication of the financial and environmental consequences of the energy transition. About 138 million tons of coal are sitting unburned at power plants, according to federal data. At the current average burn rate — falling every year as coal is replaced by cleaner renewables and cheaper natural gas — US utilities are sitting on about half a year’s worth of unused coal, which they are contractually obligated to buy from mines even when they don’t need it. That unwanted inventory is worth at least $6.5 billion, the Institute for Energy Economics and Financial Analysis estimates, a drain on utilities’ resources at a time when most are under pressure to ramp up spending on the energy transition and supply power-hungry data centers. It’s also forcing some utilities to expand the footprint of their coal storage facilities, raising the risk of local pollution.

Record coal demand

Metric tons of global coal demand in 2024, a record. While coal consumption is falling sharply in the US and Europe, it is rising in the rest of the world, according to a new International Energy Agency report, especially in India, which is now seeing levels of coal demand growth previously only observed in China. Coal production also reached record highs this year. The IEA expects coal demand to level off starting next year — but it warns that the slow pace of carbon capture deployment means emissions from coal consumption will remain high for years to come.

New renewables target

Japan unveiled plans to make renewable energy the country’s top power source by 2040. Tokyo has been a laggard by rich-country standards when it comes to decarbonizing its energy system: Wind and solar account for just 12% of the country’s electricity generation, compared to 27% in the European Union, according to the think tank Ember, and Japan still depends on coal for 32% of its power, almost double the OECD average. The new targets are part of efforts to meet Tokyo’s net-zero goals, as well as a bid to reduce its vulnerability to geopolitical uncertainty. Last year, 70% of Japan’s power was reliant on fossil fuels, nearly all of which were imported.

Semafor will be on the ground in Davos for the World Economic Forum, the annual gathering where the world’s most powerful come together to strike deals, tout their good deeds, and navigate the snow — sometimes getting stuck long enough to share a scoop or two with us.

We’ll deliver exclusives on the high-stakes conversations shaping the world. Expect original reporting, scoops, and insights on all the deal-making, gossip, and lofty ambitions — with a touch of the pretentious grandeur Davos is famous for.

New Energy

• The rate of solar adoption in Europe is falling steeply.

Fossil Fuels

• Germany’s plan to close its coal-fired power plants by 2030 may no longer be feasible, Economy Minister Robert Habeck warned.
• OPEC’s forecasts for oil demand next year are falling closer to those published by the IEA, a sign that the oil cartel is growing increasingly pessimistic about the future.
• The Biden administration detailed a $109 million plan to clean up abandoned oil and gas wells.

Finance

• A pioneer of debt-for-nature swaps is leaving UBS to start his own fund dedicated to the fast-growing financial product.

EVs

• The Biden administration is expected to approve a plan by California and 11 other states to ban the sale of gas-fueled cars by 2035. But the incoming Trump team is likely to revoke it.
• The US Energy Department approved a $9.63 billion loan to Ford and the South Korean battery firm SK to build three new EV battery plants. It also approved a loan for the first large-scale synthetic graphite facility in North America.

Food & Agriculture

• Factory farms may be the world’s best hope for feeding itself without cooking the planet.

Personnel

• Amanda Dasch, head of renewables for Shell in the Americas, is stepping down to join the offshore wind giant Orsted.

Young talent managers are professionalizing Africa's fast-growing content creator market, as top creators in Nigeria earn upwards of six figures from comedy videos, travel recaps, and cooking shows, Torinmo Salau reported in Semafor Africa. The market boom is “driven by a certainty that the move to self-made creators is just beginning to take hold,” Salau wrote.