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Insights into Donald Trump’s policy positions, China dominates the COP29, and a ‘moral panic’ over v͏‌  ͏‌  ͏‌  ͏‌  ͏‌  ͏‌ 
 
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November 11, 2024
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The World Today

  1. Trump appoints hawks
  2. DOJ’s revenge fears
  3. US foreign policy outline
  4. Iran’s power cuts
  5. China dominates COP29
  6. Latam food shortages
  7. South Sudan floods, thirst
  8. Vaping ‘moral panic’
  9. Dutch soccer violence
  10. Coco Gauff’s Saudi win

The London Review of Substacks, and recommending a book about the upsides of the Black Death.

1

Trump team offers insights

Donald Trump points towards a camera while standing in front of US flags
Brian Snyder/Reuters

US President-elect Donald Trump offered early insights into his policy priorities by naming arch-hawks to his administration. The former acting director of the US immigration enforcement agency during the first Trump administration will be the incoming president’s “border czar,” while Elise Stefanik, a Trump critic-turned-supporter in Congress, will be his ambassador to the United Nations, Trump told the New York Post. Outlets disagreed, however, on whether Robert Lighthizer would reprise his role as US trade chief: The Financial Times said Trump offered him the role, but a source told Politico the report was “complete bullshit.” Lighthizer’s potential return sent “tremors” through markets, ING economists said: “His name… serves as a reminder that US protectionism is on its way.”

— For more on the aftermath of the presidential election, subscribe to Semafor’s US politics newsletter. Sign up here.

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2

Trump’s expected revenge

A photo of the entrance of the DOJ building in Washington.
Creative Commons

Adversaries of US President-elect Donald Trump are expecting retribution for standing against him during his time out of office. The Department of Justice in particular is “terrified” of potential revenge after it led prosecutions against him, Politico reported, with many of its 115,000 staff apparently considering quitting. Trump has already begun threatening to use his power to investigate perceived enemies, The New York Times said. Republican insiders told the Times that there is a debate inside his team, with a more confrontational faction persuading him to go after his foes, while others, including some wealthy donors, say this would be counterproductive to his policy agenda.

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3

Trump’s foreign policy in focus

A photo of president-elect Donald Trump standing next to Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy.
Shannon Stapleton/Reuters

US President-elect Donald Trump’s impending return to office is already shifting global geopolitics. In recent phone calls, Trump warned Russian President Vladimir Putin not to escalate his war in Ukraine, reminding the Kremlin of the substantial US military presence in Europe, The Washington Post reported, and assured Palestinian officials he would work to end the war in Gaza. Meanwhile, Taiwan and the Philippines — locked in separate standoffs with China — are looking to increase purchases of US defense equipment. The flurry of announcements points to the contours of Trump’s foreign policy, The Wall Street Journal said: “He will navigate widening conflicts by building deterrence against foreign rivals while favoring transactional policies with US allies.”

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4

Iran under pressure

Apartments are seen with the lights off while electricity is cut off due to energy savings in Tehran
Majid Asgaripour/WANA via Reuters

Iran said it would enforce rolling power cuts, the result of years of sanctions and underinvestment in its energy system. Tehran’s announcement points to the mounting difficulties facing the country, home to the world’s second-largest reserves of natural gas and historically a major oil producer. Beyond the economic crisis at home, its proxies abroad — principally Hamas in Gaza and Hezbollah in Lebanon — have been hammered by Israel since the Palestinian group’s Oct. 7, 2023 attack. There is little respite on the horizon: US President-elect Donald Trump plans to renew his “maximum pressure” strategy with toughened sanctions and harsh restrictions on energy sales when he takes office in January, The Wall Street Journal reported.

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5

China takes lead at COP29

A line chart showing tons of CO2 emissions per capita from major regions.

China will play an outsized role in this year’s COP29 climate conference, its confidence boosted by Beijing’s dominance of the clean tech industry as the West’s attention lies elsewhere. Chinese diplomats will say the country is beating its decarbonization targets, and helping the developing world to do the same, while Europe and the US lag behind. One Chinese analyst told the Financial Times that the West linking climate policies to trade is making climate diplomacy “more politicized, more divisive.” Only two of the G7’s leaders — the British and Italian prime ministers — will attend the summit in Baku this week. By next year, Donald Trump, a known climate skeptic, will be in office in the US, while the pro-climate leaders of Canada and Germany are floundering.

— For more from COP29, subscribe to Semafor’s Net Zero newsletter on the energy transition. Sign up here.

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6

Latam’s growing food crisis

A line graph showing the share of the Latin American and Caribbean population who suffer from hunger.

Latin America is grappling with a worsening food crisis, despite being one of the world’s biggest food producers. Almost a third of people in the region suffer from at least moderate food insecurity. According to experts, the COVID-19 pandemic wiped out more than a decade of progress in terms of hunger reduction, pushing an additional 48 million people into food insecurity. In Argentina, the food-insecure population has more than doubled from 2017. In response, regional governments have made the food crisis a top priority, Americas Quarterly reported. “Hunger is not natural. It is, above all, the result of political choices,” Brazilian President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva said.

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7

South Sudan’s water shortage

A bar shart showing select countries’ share of deaths attributable to unsafe water sources.

Widespread floods in South Sudan have contaminated water supplies as chemicals used in the oil industry seep into potable sources. “We know it’s bad water, but we don’t have anywhere else, we’re dying of thirst,” a cattle rancher told the BBC. Much of the world’s youngest country — whose economy is heavily reliant on oil exports — has been underwater for years amid unprecedented levels of rainfall. Vast parts of the Sahel, a region that straddles the Sahara Desert, have been wracked by repeated drought and flooding cycles as extreme events become more fierce and common due to climate change. The erratic weather patterns have turned the Sahel into the world’s most food-insecure region.

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8

Vaping ‘moral panic’ will kill

A line chart showing the falling global death rate from smoking.

The “moral panic” over electronic cigarettes will cause a “public health crisis” as countries forget just how deadly real cigarettes are, a writer argued in The Observer. The UK government plans new taxes and limits on vaping, but Martha Gill said that it was “odd” to restrict “the most popular and effective aid for quitting smoking.” Each year smoking kills about 8 million people globally, while about half the 2.7 million UK smokers who have quit in the last five years have done so with vapes. Australia made vapes prescription-only in 2021 and saw an immediate rise in smoking rates: “Our victory over the cancer sticks is more fragile than we might think,” Gill argued.

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9

Antisemitic violence in Europe

A photo of Pro-Palestinian protestors facing Dutch police officers.
Anthony Deutsch/Reuters

French President Emmanuel Macron said he would attend France’s upcoming soccer match with Israel after attacks on Jewish fans in Amsterdam. Dutch police arrested 62 people after Ajax Amsterdam’s 5-0 home victory over Maccabi Tel Aviv on Thursday was overshadowed by apparent antisemitic violence by large groups of Arabic-speaking men, seemingly sparked by videos of Israeli fans tearing down a Palestinian flag. Amsterdam was declared a “high-risk security area,” with pro-Palestinian protesters recently throwing eggs at the opening of a Holocaust museum, while a rightward shift in Dutch politics includes an increasingly anti-Islamic streak. Israel’s national team heads to Paris this week, and while Macron will be in attendance, Israel’s government warned its fans not to travel.

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10

Tennis takes center court in Riyadh

A photo of Coco Gauff holding up a trophy
Aleksandra Szmigiel/Reuters

The US tennis star Coco Gauff came back from a set down to win the WTA Finals, a victory that cemented her status as among tennis’ rising stars and spotlighted the host Saudi Arabia’s shifting social mores. Gauff became the youngest person to win the tournament in 20 years, securing a $4.8 million prize — the highest figure in the history of women’s tennis. The WTA Finals are the latest in a series of major sporting events to take place in the country, including boxing, Formula 1 racing, and soccer, part of efforts by the kingdom to raise its global profile and cater to a huge domestic market. “For one night,” The New York Times noted, “the capital of an authoritarian, conservative kingdom where progress on women’s rights is still stop-and-go was… home to one of the most prestigious events in women’s tennis.”

— For more news from Saudi Arabia, subscribe to Semafor’s thrice-weekly Gulf newsletter. Sign up here.

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Flagging
  • Ballot counting is underway in Mauritius after a closely contested general election.
  • The World Meteorological Organization releases its annual State of the Climate report.
  • The US marks Veterans Day to honor all those who have served in the military.
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Plug

For the latest analysis of Latin America and the Caribbean, sign up for the free weekly newsletter from Americas Quarterly. AQ’s coverage of the region’s politics, economics, and culture reaches an influential audience throughout the hemisphere.

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LRS
The London Review of Substacks

Drug of choice

There was a big result in last week’s US election. Polling suggested that the vote would be close, but it was not. Yes, you know the one — the Massachusetts electorate resoundingly rejected Ballot Question 4, the “Natural Psychedelic Substances Act,” on decriminalizing some psychedelic drugs. The policy researcher Charles Fain Lehman notes that this was far from the only progressive policy that lost, alongside defeats for efforts to reduce drug and theft sentences in California and to legalize weed in Florida.

The results do not simply reflect a correction of progressive overshoot, he argues, but a repudiation of a philosophical position that has taken root in recent years: That the costs of deterring antisocial behavior exceed the benefits. Scholars argued that even though incarceration reduces crime, and thus improves society at large, it causes so much suffering in the incarcerated that it is unjustified. Lehman says that that argument is probably empirically and morally wrong, but more importantly, the US public wants “to live in a society where people follow shared rules,” and made that clear at the ballot box.

Safe travels

For years, self-driving cars seemed like one of those technologies that were always five years away. But now they’re normal sights in several US and Chinese cities, and it’s safe to imagine that pretty soon they’ll be mainstream across the rich world. The tech writer Matt Bell has spent 130 hours taking rides in Waymo’s San Francisco robotaxis recently, and the first thing he learnt, he said, is that it’s boring. He took his first ride in 2023 and was ecstatic, but even by the end of that journey, “I already felt a temptation to… get to work on my laptop.”

That’s the point, of course. The ride is “smooth and reasonable,” and it’s easy to work on the journey: “Waymos are great mobile offices.” It’s far from perfect — Waymos sometimes make weird route choices, or get confused by unusual road events. But their rise also reveals something about human nature and society: “People are gradually figuring out that Waymos are incredibly docile and careful, and are taking advantage.” One person sat on Bell’s car for several minutes, during which it just stayed still. If you tried that with a human driver, they might well hit you. It’s a factor which “made me realize to what degree the threat of victims fighting back keeps violence down on the streets.”

Art class

There is a theory about art, which goes something like this. Until modern times, rich people showed off their wealth with ostentation, so their art and especially their architecture was highly ornamented. But then technology made ornamentation cheap and it no longer signaled wealth effectively, so rich people began to signal their wealth through taste instead: Creating elaborate codes and unspoken rules which you had to be rich to have the time and resources to learn. And so art took the “modernist turn,” in which it became more austere, less ornamented, less obviously beautiful.

The architecture writer Samuel Hughes, in Notes on Progress, says that this is a fun and insightful theory, but it can’t be the whole story. For one thing, all art forms took the modernist turn, but not all art forms — live music, for instance — became cheaper to produce. Hughes argues that the story is the other way around. Artists drove modernism, and the intellectual elite followed them. The rich and the masses still want tonal music, ornamented architecture, representational art, but they are not the drivers of elite tastes: “I cannot think of any pioneer modernist composer who reluctantly abandoned Romanticism because atonality was where the money was.”

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Semafor Recommends

The World the Plague Made, by James Belich. The historian’s “informative and often provocative” book argues that the Black Death had “a silver lining,” driving huge economic and technological expansion in Europe thanks to “the unexpected stimulus of a sudden relief from the Malthusian pressure that was part of the nature of the premodern world,” the London Review of Books said. Buy it from your local bookstore.

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