Principals

1. Gov’t. funding deadline looms
2. NYT poll fallout
3. GOP endorsement war
4. Trump takes the stand
5. Blinken’s shuttle diplomacy
6. Yellen to meet Chinese counterpart

PDB: Inside the Trump team’s plan to get back at prominent allies-turned-critics

Biden speaks on infrastructure in Delaware … Israel announces ‘large attack’ on Gaza overnight … CIA Director Bill Burns to Israel, other Middle East countries

— edited by Benjy Sarlin, Jordan Weissmann and Morgan Chalfant

A busy two weeks ahead for Congress

The next two weeks will tell us a lot about Speaker Mike Johnson’s governing style as he handles a pair of high-stakes standoffs. First, Congress still needs to work out a deal on aid to Israel and Ukraine, after House Republicans passed an Israel-only bill that cut funding to the IRS and is considered dead on arrival in the Senate. Johnson defended the legislation this weekend, telling Fox News, “We’re trying to be good stewards of the taxpayers’ resources.” The White House is peeved over the legislation, but still approaching the new speaker “with a sense of curiosity,” the Associated Press reports, in part because officials were pleased by Johnson’s remarks signaling support for Ukraine despite past votes opposing assistance.

Meanwhile, the government is set to shut down again on Nov. 17 if Congress doesn’t intervene. Johnson said lawmakers were working over the weekend to put together a continuing resolution, having floated a complicated “laddered” temporary funding bill last week that would set different deadlines for different pieces of the appropriations package. The top Democrat on the House Appropriations Committee panned that proposal, saying Johnson “doesn’t have a clue,” and it won’t fly in the Senate. Punchbowl News reports this morning that the other options Johnson could turn to are a clean continuing resolution, or one that pairs government funding with border security measures or funding cuts.

— Morgan Chalfant

The NYT/Siena poll is everything Democrats fear

Is the Democratic party sleepwalking into a loss next year? That’s the conversation that’s been reignited by Sunday’s New York Times/Siena polls showing President Biden trailing Donald Trump in five of six battleground states. Former Obama adviser David Axelrod suggested Biden ask “whether it’s in HIS best interest or the country’s” to seek another term, prompting former Biden chief of staff Ron Klain to snap back that Axelrod had made dismissive comments about his age in the last election too. The Biden campaign noted — as various pollsters have — that surveys a year out often overstate threats to incumbents. “We’ll win in 2024 by putting our heads down and doing the work, not by fretting about a poll,” Biden spokesman Kevin Munoz said.

The bad news for Biden in the poll: The Democratic coalition is cracking, with critical blocs like younger voters and nonwhite voters drifting away, and concerns about Biden’s age intensifying. The good news: There’s little sign of enthusiasm for Trump, leaving Biden allies at least somewhat hopeful they can remind already Democratic-leaning groups why they’ve voted Democrat recently. On Substack, former Obama advisor Dan Pfeiffer pored over additional polling data from Unite the Country, a pro-Biden super PAC, and suggested Democrats court the “double haters” — voters who dislike both candidates — by publicizing Biden’s more popular accomplishments, like drug price negotiations.

— Benjy Sarlin and Kadia Goba

Trump challenges DeSantis on his home turf

The weekend’s Florida Freedom Summit devolved into a battle between Donald Trump and Ron DeSantis over who owns the Sunshine State. Trump paraded six state lawmakers on stage who’d recently flipped from supporting DeSantis, along with two other new endorsers, all in front of a background that declared “Florida Is Trump Country.” DeSantis started off Sunday on a better note, with news that Iowa Gov. Kim Reynolds plans to officially endorse him later Monday. Reynolds has appeared at many of DeSantis’ events as he’s crisscrossed the state, drawing Trump’s public ire along the way: But why is she putting her support behind a candidate who has struggled to gain momentum? One prominent Reynolds supporter suggested the decision was “more personal than political.” An Iowa political operative echoed that assessment, telling Semafor they were surprised she didn’t wait longer to see if Nikki Haley would overtake DeSantis — and speculating that Reynolds’ endorsement “basically confirms” that prominent Iowa evangelical leader Bob Vander Plaats, along with other statewide officials, will likely throw their weight behind DeSantis, too.

— Shelby Talcott

Trump takes the stand in trial that threatens his business empire

Donald Trump is expected to take the stand today to testify under oath in the New York attorney general’s civil fraud trial alleging he and his co-defendants inflated his business assets. While not criminal, the charges have angered Trump and present a grave threat to both his business empire and his carefully honed image as a successful businessman. It’s the first of several trials that could disrupt Trump’s campaign over the next year, but as the Washington Post notes, it could be the only time Trump takes the witness stand because “criminal defendants cannot be forced to testify.” Indeed, some have warned him against taking the stand in the other trials. Monday’s appearance is high-stakes, in part because Trump is “known for spreading falsehoods, both big and small, which could get him into trouble while he’s testifying under oath,” CNN writes. The judge overseeing the trial, Arthur Engoron, already ruled the defendants were liable for fraud and has also fined Trump for violating a limited gag order blocking him from attacking the judge’s staff. Trump’s testimony follows that of his adult sons last week. Both Donald Trump Jr. and Eric Trump distanced themselves from the financial statements in question. Ivanka Trump is expected to testify Wednesday.

— Morgan Chalfant

Blinken traverses the Middle East to manage Israel-Hamas war

Tel Aviv. Amman. Ramallah. Baghdad. Ankara. Secretary of State Antony Blinken has been everywhere over the past few days as the Biden administration tries to manage the fallout from the Israel-Hamas war. The White House is reportedly becoming increasingly uncomfortable with the humanitarian toll of Israel’s military tactics but feels like it has limited leverage, the Washington Post reports. Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu publicly rejected U.S. calls for a humanitarian pause in Israel’s ground operation in Gaza unless hostages are released by Hamas. “This is a process,” Blinken told reporters on Sunday. “Israel has raised important questions about how humanitarian pauses would work. We’ve got to answer those questions.” Palestinian Authority President Mahmoud Abbas, meanwhile, pressed Blinken on the need for a ceasefire and to prevent attacks against Palestinians by extremist settlers in the West Bank. A surprise visit to Baghdad was aimed at sending a warning to Iran and its proxies not to widen the conflict.

— Morgan Chalfant

U.S. steps up economic talks with China with Yellen meeting

Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen will meet with China’s economic chief, Vice Premier He Lifeng, in San Francisco over Thursday and Friday, ahead of a planned meeting between President Biden and Chinese President Xi Jinping on the sidelines of the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation summit. Yellen broke the news about her meeting in a Washington Post op-ed, writing that she will raise “serious concerns” about China’s unfair trade practices and behavior toward U.S. businesses while seeking a “constructive economic relationship” with China. “Our two nations have an obligation to establish resilient lines of open communication and to prevent our disagreements from spiraling into conflict,” she wrote of the recent frequent contacts between U.S. and Chinese officials. “But we also know that our relationship cannot be circumscribed to crisis management.” A Treasury official told the Financial Times that the meetings would be part of “a period of intensified engagement in our bilateral economic relationship” but declined to lay out specific objectives.

— Morgan Chalfant

Beltway Newsletters

Punchbowl News: House Speaker Mike Johnson “hasn’t shared much with his leadership team” on his plans to fund the government, and Republicans likely won’t have more information until after a private conference meeting tomorrow.

Playbook: In a new memo, Sen. Tim Scott’s campaign manager suggests he’ll go after both Nikki Haley and Ron DeSantis aggressively at the Republican debate on Wednesday. “Does anyone actually believe that a moderate who is running as the darling of Never Trumpers can win the GOP nomination? Nikki’s canned lines can’t change the fact that her ceiling is low and getting lower,” the memo says.

The Early 202: Johnson is pursuing a “two-track strategy” passing appropriations bills and working to avoid a shutdown, but is struggling on both fronts. Even if he manages to pass the transportation appropriations bill, which he postponed last week, Johnson faces several other difficult-to-pass funding bills on the horizon.

Axios: Both California Gov. Gavin Newsom and Illinois Gov. J.B. Pritzker both donated to Charlston, S.C. mayoral candidate Clay Middleton, which, given South Carolina’s slot on the primary calendar, could be a sign of both pols’ future White House ambitions.

White House

• President Biden will spend the afternoon in Bear, Del., at an Amtrak maintenance shop to announce over $16 billion in funding from the bipartisan infrastructure law for two dozen passenger rail projects between Boston and Washington, D.C.
• The White House denied that Biden ever met with a Ukrainian executive Vadym Pozharskyi in 2015, only for Hunter Biden’s former business partner Devon Archer to contradict that denial in sworn testimony to the House Oversight Committee. — Politico
• There is an “antisemitism crisis” on America’s college campuses, second gentleman Doug Emhoff told Politico in an interview.
• Former President Barack Obama said “nobody’s hands are clean” in the Israel-Hamas war.

Congress

• Republican senators don’t want to see Speaker Mike Johnson move forward with legislation restricting abortion before next year’s election. — The Hill
• House Majority Leader Steve Scalise, R-La. dodged questions on whether the 2020 election was stolen. White House spokesman Andrew Bates accused Scalise of perpetuating a “dangerous conspiracy theory.”
• Sen. Bernie Sanders, I-Vt. suggested on CNN that Democrats could use aid to force changes to Israel’s war strategy as he called for an end to Israeli strikes on Gaza.
• The Senate expects to surpass 150 judicial confirmations under the Biden administration this week, according to an aide to Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer.
• Sen. Jacky Rosen, D-Nev. and several prominent Jewish Democrats in Michigan, including Rep. Elissa Slotkin and state Attorney General Dana Nessel, criticized Rep. Rashida Tlaib, D-Mich. for endorsing the chant “from the river to the sea.” Tlaib and other activists have argued it’s an aspirational call for “peaceful coexistence,” but many Jews —and the ADL — have long viewed the phrase’s reference to the geographic whole of Israel as a call for the state’s destruction, pointing to its use by groups like Hamas.

Polls

A larger share of Republicans than Democrats support sending weapons and military aid to Israel, according to a new CBS/YouGov poll. A majority of Democrats — 53% — support doing so, but 47% oppose it.

Foreign Policy

• American and European officials have been talking to Ukrainian officials about “very broad outlines” of what Kyiv might have to give up to reach an agreement with Russia to end its war in Ukraine. — NBC
• Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy insisted his country’s fight against the Russians isn’t a stalemate and invited former President Donald Trump to Ukraine. “I will need 24 minutes … to explain [to] President Trump that he can’t manage this war,” he told NBC.
• Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu was forced to suspend a junior cabinet member who suggested a nuclear strike on Gaza was a possibility.

2024

• Virginia’s Republican Gov. Glenn Youngkin still isn’t totally ruling out a late presidential run in 2024. “I continue to be very focused on Virginia,” he said on ABC. “Not in New Hampshire, not in South Carolina, not in Nevada.”
• A DSCC memo obtained by Semafor’s Kadia Goba signals the party’s optimism about 2024 races despite a difficult Senate map. “Strong Democrats, damaged Republicans, and a favorable campaign issue set will all contribute to Senate Democrats’ victories in 2024,” it states.

Media

• Satellite image providers like Planet Labs have restricted imagery of Gaza following the publication of a New York Times story on Israeli tank positions based on the images, Semafor’s Max Tani reports.
• The Washington Post named William Lewis as its new CEO and publisher. Lewis is a former publisher of The Wall Street Journal who spent years as a reporter and editor in England.

Big Read

Donald Trump and his allied groups are already planning a campaign of vengeance if the former president wins a second term, according to the Washington Post. Trump has apparently told associates that he wants the Justice Department to investigate prominent allies-turned-critics — including Gen. John Kelly, William Barr, Ty Cobb, and Gen. Mark Milley — and potentially prosecute officials at the FBI and DOJ. Meanwhile, the group of Trump-aligned think tanks known as “Project 2025” has allegedly been crafting a plan to use the Insurrection Act to quell any domestic unrest — an idea some conservatives wanted to pursue during the George Floyd protests of 2020. That proposal is apparently being spearheaded by Jeffrey Clark, the former DOJ Civil Division Head who was an unindicted co-conspirator in Trump’s federal Jan. 6 case. That said, the Heritage Foundation denied that Project 2025 was working on plans “related to the Insurrection Act or targeting political enemies.”

Blindspot

Stories that are being largely ignored by either left-leaning or right-leaning outlets, according to data from our partners at Ground News.

What the Left isn’t reading: House Oversight Committee Chairman James Comer, R-Ky. promised two-dozen forthcoming subpoenas related to his panel’s investigation into the Biden family’s foreign business dealings.

What the Right isn’t reading: Special counsel Jack Smith doesn’t want cameras in the courtroom for Donald Trump’s election interference trial in D.C.

Principals Team

Editors: Benjy Sarlin, Jordan Weissmann, Morgan Chalfant

Editor-at-Large: Steve Clemons

Reporters: Kadia Goba, Joseph Zeballos-Roig, Shelby Talcott, David Weigel

David Weigel is a politics reporter for Semafor. Sign up for his twice-weekly newsletter Americana.

• Democrats, still struggling to understand the Gen Z voters in their coalition, worry TikTok is driving a wedge between them.
• An analysis of TikTok hashtag data suggests that users outside the U.S. are posting and consuming more content about the Israel-Hamas war than those in the United States.