DSCC memo: Democrats see hope in tough Senate map

The DSCC is making its pitch for why they’re feeling good about 2024 in a memo viewed by Semafor. In it, they highlight candidate quality, hotly contested Republican primaries, and policy stances on controversial social issues as the path for Senate Democrats to hold onto their majority.

“Strong Democrats, damaged Republicans, and a favorable campaign issue set will all contribute to Senate Democrats’ victories in 2024,” the memo states. “One year out from Election Day, these factors are boosting our campaigns across the map and setting the stage for Democrats to successfully defend our Senate majority.”

Democratic incumbents plan to promote their policy wins from the last Congress, underscoring infrastructure improvement in their respective states and lowering the cost of prescription drugs. A history of recruiting poor-quality candidates and nasty primary fights on the Republican side — which many in the GOP blamed for a disappointing midterms — could also contribute to Democratic successes.

Alex Mooney, running for the GOP nomination in West Virginia, has labeled Republican frontrunner Jim Justice, the state’s governor, the “king of scandals.” And Kari Lake, who announced her long-anticipated bid for Senate in Arizona after losing a governor’s race in the midterms, makes for an easy target as a 2020 election denier.

It also doesn’t hurt that significant fundraising hauls in competitive states have allowed Democrats to make early investments, they argue. Last month, the DSCC announced they’ll open offices in five Senate battleground states while funding on-the-ground operations in Florida and Texas to support challengers running against Sens. Rick Scott, R-Fla. and Ted Cruz, R-Texas.

It’s a brutal map for Democrats this year, who are largely playing in states Trump won in either 2016 or 2020 and can only afford to lose one seat. Republicans see Biden’s continued unpopularity as an anchor on candidates that will allow them to make gains.