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In today’s edition, we look at the how the war between Israel and Hamas is the latest in a string of͏‌  ͏‌  ͏‌  ͏‌  ͏‌  ͏‌ 
 
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October 24, 2023
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Liz Hoffman
Liz Hoffman

Welcome back to Semafor Business.

A key part of being a CEO for the past decade or so has been not falling off the outrage treadmill. One social issue after another presented no-win situations, demanding responses that were likely to alienate some employees, investors, customers, or regulators.

The violence in Israel and Gaza is the latest issue. But as I write below, the idea that this puts them in a tough spot seems to me, so far, like coverage in search of a story. The particular facts of the Oct. 7 attacks might make it an outlier, but each social storm that passes without CEOs being pressured into delicate dances, and some number of them tripping over their shoelaces in the process, moves us back to a world when hardly anyone cared what they had to say.

Plus, the Ozempic trade looks overcooked, the M&A drought gets slaked in the oilpatch, and U.K. banks are free to pay giant bonuses again.

Buy/Sell
Hess

➚ BUY: Big Oil. Chevron’s $53 billion takeover of Hess follows Exxon’s $60 billion deal for Pioneer. Oil and gas is the best-performing S&P industry over the past three months, even as the International Energy Agency — no tree-huggers — says the world is at “the beginning of the end” of the fossil-fuel era.

➘ SELL: Big Tech. The tech rally has lost steam, and Microsoft and Alphabet kick off a flurry of quarterly results this week that will be parsed for AI hype and layoff updates. Excluding AI darling Nvidia, analysts polled by FactSet expect a 2.9% drop in earnings for S&P 500 tech companies.

⇌ HOLD: Big Three. General Motors slashed its EV guidance and said the ongoing autoworkers’ strike is costing it $200 million a week. But its profits were still stronger than expected as new-car prices remain stubbornly high. Ford reports earnings Thursday and Jeep maker Stellantis reports next week.

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Semafor Stat

Paper losses for Republican presidential candidate Vivek Ramaswamy yesterday after shares of Roivant, the pharma company he founded and still owns 7% of, fell after it agreed to sell a key drug to Roche. Roivant, which went public via a SPAC in 2021 and is now trading back under its $10 list price, signaled it wouldn’t be quick to spend the $5.2 billion cash windfall on stock buybacks.

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Liz Hoffman

CEOs’ Israel war footing

THE NEWS

Business leaders are keeping a low profile regarding the new Middle East conflict after a decade of public CEO statements on hot-button issues.

So far, 57 of the S&P 500 companies have made a public statement about the attacks, according to Yale professor Jeffrey Sonnenfeld, who’s keeping a list. The relative quiet follows years of increasing expectations from employees, customers, and investors that business leaders take stances on social issues.

But it hits during a backlash to the broader ESG movement, which has seen shareholder support wane and investor dollars move elsewhere. And with a few exceptions — Salesforce and Walmart donated to Jewish groups, while Pfizer CEO Albert Bourla, the son of Holocaust survivors, wrote an unusually personal note — business leaders are staying out of it.

LIZ’S VIEW

I keep seeing headlines about how the war between Israel and Gaza has put businesses and executives in a bind. But I’ve seen little evidence of it. Most have said nothing and haven’t been punished for it by employees, customers, or other constituencies demanding they take a stance. Neither have the few that vocally supported Israel.

When Mark Zuckerberg called the attacks “pure evil” and got a personal note of thanks from the Israeli government, no #DeleteFacebook hashtag went viral. There weren’t widespread protests outside JPMorgan branches after Jamie Dimon used the word “terrorism” or boycotts of Pfizer (not an uncontroversial company!) after Bourla wrote about Israelis killed “in cold blood.”

Starbucks has drawn criticism for its union-busting efforts but seemingly none from its decision to sue that same union over pro-Palestinian posts that used the company’s logo. And when McDonald’s restaurants in Israel donated free meals to Israeli soldiers, franchisees in Arab countries made some noise. But it’s been 10 days, a lifetime in outrage-land, and no storm has descended on Chicago.

Reuters/Ronen Zvulun

In part, that’s because a plurality of Americans agree with them. And the strongest supporters of Palestinians are college students not in the workforce, which explains why university presidents are facing heat where CEOs aren’t.

But vocal minorities have complicated life for CEOs before, and that’s not happening here. Almost nobody is asking business leaders what they think, and for once, most aren’t rushing to say, a notable departure from the reflexive virtue-signaling that’s become common in recent years. Crisis communications experts have been quick to highlight the pitfalls here — service providers seek to provide service, news at 11 — but most executives don’t need the help.

When I asked BlackRock executive Mark Wiedman earlier this month what lesson he’d learned from the anti-ESG backlash, he said “speak softly and invest money.” That sentiment increasingly describes how CEOs are approaching the public-facing part of their jobs.

The pandemic, the #MeToo movement and social-justice protests, and the broader conversations of the late 2010s about diversity and equity, pushed leaders to speak out. The early calls were easy: Sexual misconduct and harassment is bad, and saying so jibed nicely with corporate diversity efforts. Ditto for racism (though there was a noticeable falloff in corporate responses to George Floyd’s murder in 2020 and the spike in anti-Asian violence a year later).

Then there were issues that were thornier but legitimately required a corporate response, like deciding whether to pay for employees to receive abortions out of state. Closing operations in Russia had the benefit of being both morally unambiguous and relevant to day-to-day operations.

As the issues keep coming and are only getting thornier, many of them regret sticking their heads above the parapet in the first place.

ROOM FOR DISAGREEMENT

It might just be early days. The Washington Post reports that efforts at some companies to blacklist employees who’ve made statements in support of Palestinians is starting to force the hand of companies that have so far stayed silent.

“While many top executives made public statements in support of Israel following Hamas’s devastating Oct. 7 attack, some U.S. employees have begun to pressure management to make similar statements about Palestinian deaths following Israel’s bombing in Gaza,” the paper writes.

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Evidence

The hottest trade on Wall Street is the Ozempic long-short. The thesis: GLP-1 drugs will sap demand for snack food, insulin pumps, and other pillars of the the caloric-industrial complex. On the other side, Novo Nordisk is now the most valuable company in Europe, and analysts are busy calculating the money airlines will save hauling around lighter passengers.

But as with all pile-ins, it may be overdone. “We don’t detect it in any of our numbers,” PepsiCo’s CFO said after the company raised its profit forecasts earlier this month. The direst predictions see spending on GLP-1s accounting for 10% of all retail spending on drugs. “Insurers and government agencies simply can’t afford that, and it’s hard to imagine a situation where they pay it,” writes Barron’s Josh Nathan-Kazis.

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What We’re Tracking
  • In its first meeting since the Oct. 7 attacks, the Israeli central bank yesterday cut economic growth forecasts from 3% to 2.3% this year and from 3% to 2.8% in 2024. It’s already preparing to sell billions of dollars in foreign currencies to prop up a sliding shekel. (Blackstone founder Steve Schwarzman reminded attendees at the “Davos in the Desert” conference in Riyadh that the Yom Kippur War in 1973 was followed by a recession.)
  • The U.K. scrapped limits on banker bonuses that had been in place since 2014, meant to curb excessive risk-taking. Executives have long complained that smaller bonuses just means higher base pay, which can’t easily be cut in lean times.
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