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In today’s newsletter, banking regulators are cracking down on BlackRock and Vanguard for being too ͏‌  ͏‌  ͏‌  ͏‌  ͏‌  ͏‌ 
 
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October 15, 2024
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Business

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Liz Hoffman
Liz Hoffman

Hi, and welcome back to Semafor Business.

A chronic problem with corporate regulation is that regulators, like generals, were trained to fight the last war, not the next one. This is partly understandable — the 2008 crisis exposed glaring risks in the financial system, and so regulators set out to make sure that didn’t happen again. They spent a decade pushing credit risk out of the banking system, only to be blinded by interest-rate risk: Silicon Valley Bank failed for entirely different reasons than Lehman Brothers and Washington Mutual. The press was also guilty of this particular blind spot.

Today’s story is about a different kind of war, but still fundamentally a backward-looking one. Banking regulators at the FDIC are cracking down on BlackRock and Vanguard, believing them to be either too woke (conservatives) or too big (progressives).

This seems like a solution in search of a problem. BlackRock is getting out of the moralizing business as quickly as it can, and Vanguard was only ever lightly in it. Yes, both are big, but that size has allowed them to offer simple, cheap, and easy ways for Americans to invest and save — something progressives support. The politics of this one are strange, not least because the FDIC’s chief, Marty Gruenberg, is leaving under a cloud of scandal.

And speaking of politics: Kamala Harris heads toward election day with historical stock-market tailwinds, but Donald Trump has the day traders.

See you Thursday.

Buy/Sell
A chart showing the odds of Harris or Trump winning the 2024 election according to online betting site Kalshi

➚ BUY: Bets. More than $2 billion has been wagered on the presidential race, with traders betting on a Trump landslide not predicted by polls. A court ruling last month paved the way for legalized political gambling, though a US regulator has a fast-track appeal.

➘ SELL: Jets. Cash-strapped Boeing is raising as much as $35 billion in stock sales and borrowing — an expensive lifeline with its shares down 40% this year. And Elliott cranked up its fight with Southwest, nominating eight directors to its board.

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The Tape

US may cap AI chip exports… China chases tax cheats… Hurricane costs could hit $55B… Global debt approaches $100T… Google bets you’ll scroll forever… Wall Street interns make more than Jay Powell... OpenAI vs. Open AI

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Evidence
A chart showing the S&P’s returns 3 months before the presidential election from 1972 to 2024

Three weeks out from the presidential election, and polls continue to show that the economy is the biggest issue on voters’ minds. The stock market is, of course, not the economy, though it’s historically been a decent indicator: Since 1984, rising stock prices in the three months before election day have led to incumbent parties keeping the White House, excluding a blip in 2020’s pandemic-bruised market.

The S&P 500 is up 12% since Aug. 5 — the date of the mini-crash, when unemployment data rattled investors.

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Mixed Signals

On this latest episode of Mixed Signals from Semafor Media, Ben and Nayeema tackle bias in the media — a conversation that’s especially timely now, just weeks away from a US election and amid an expanding war in the Middle East. They sit down with James Bennet, who has been at the center of this thorny debate around bias and the Middle East since his tenure as the Jerusalem bureau chief at The New York Times.

Listen to the latest episode of Mixed Signals now.

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Liz Hoffman

Giant money managers in Washington’s sights

THE SCOOP

BlackRock is under fire from a federal agency, which is itself a target of Washington scrutiny, over its influence in corporate boardrooms. It’s fighting back.

The Federal Deposit Insurance Corp. wants to impose sweeping limits on how giant asset managers invest in US banks. The agency’s concern is that BlackRock, Vanguard, and other big money managers wield too much influence over lenders that decide what gets built in America.

The effort has the rare backing of both Republicans on the FDIC, who think giant asset managers are too liberal, and Democrats, who think they’re simply too big. Two defining forces in corporate America — concerns over “wokeness” and monopoly power — are colliding, and the ensuing fight is likely to touch on a third: private-sector backlash against expanding regulatory power.

The FDIC’s proposal to BlackRock and Vanguard, delivered Oct. 4, would bar them from trying to influence a bank’s behavior by, for example, nudging it away from financing oil projects — a nod to the past ESG priorities of BlackRock CEO Larry Fink. It would also require them to disclose any conversation their employees have with bank executives, and to notify the FDIC every time they acquire more than 10% of the shares of a bank — a level BlackRock already holds at about 40 lenders, people familiar with the matter said.

BlackRock CEO Larry Fink during the 2017 World Economic Forum in Davos
World Economic Forum/Manuel Lopez

The FDIC “may request such additional information at its discretion,” the draft agreement says, which has left executives concerned that they’re signing up for a new permanent overseer. The agency set an Oct. 31 deadline for BlackRock and Vanguard to sign the agreements limiting their actions.

Without a deal by that date, BlackRock and Vanguard could be forced to sell hundreds of millions of dollars worth of bank stocks — not ideal for a sector still bruised from last year’s mini-crisis. The agency can extend the deadline.

BlackRock executives pushed back in a call with FDIC staff in recent days, the people said, arguing the rules are unworkable for funds that trade in and out of positions frequently to match indexes. Some of the rules would kick in at a 5% stake, which both BlackRock and Vanguard, because of their sheer size, hold in nearly every public company.

The push shows how FDIC Chair Martin Gruenberg, who agreed in May to resign after an investigation found pervasive sexual harassment at the agency, is determined to govern right until the end. He has also proposed new rules on deposits and is holding up a rewrite of new bank rules for being insufficiently strict, Semafor has reported.

On the asset manager front, current rules allow investors to own big stakes in banks so long as they remain passive — although, as Jonathan McKernan, the Republican FDIC director who proposed the new rules in January, has pointed out, it’s a loose system of self-reporting.

“The Big Three purport to be merely passive investors, but a growing body of evidence suggests that’s not always the case,” he said in a speech earlier this year, referring to BlackRock, Vanguard, and State Street.

The FDIC and BlackRock declined to comment. A Vanguard spokesman said: “Consistent with our mission and passive approach, we have taken strong actions, engaged with policymakers, and suggested additional reforms that further clarify and refine expectations around passivity.”

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What We’re Tracking

Strapped: Consumers have less money in their bank accounts, a sign that post-pandemic splurges and two years of higher prices may finally be stretching household budgets. Deposits fell at each of the three big banks that have reported quarterly earnings so far, which JPMorgan CFO Jeremy Barnum called “an indication that consumers are kind of done spending down their cash buffers,” though he said they remain “on solid footing.” Bank of America CEO Brian Moynihan attributed the deposit outflows to wealthier customers looking for higher interest rates elsewhere, but said that should reverse as interest rates come down. Delinquencies are rising, and household debt continues to hit records, with credit card debt accounting for the biggest increase over the past few years.

A chart showing consumer deposits by quarter at JPMorgan, BOA and Wells Fargo from 2021 to 2024
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Live Journalism

What’s in store for the advanced manufacturing workforce in the US? Join Colorado Governor Jared Polis, White House policy advisor Neera Tanden, and other industry leaders in Washington, DC, on Oct. 21 to discuss how the United States looks to maintain a competitive edge.

Oct. 21, 2024 | Washington, DC | Request Invitation

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