• D.C.
  • BXL
  • Lagos
  • Riyadh
  • Beijing
  • SG
  • D.C.
  • BXL
  • Lagos
Semafor Logo
  • Riyadh
  • Beijing
  • SG


In today’s edition, we look at Pfizer’s activist problem, Google’s antitrust problems, and Saudi Ara͏‌  ͏‌  ͏‌  ͏‌  ͏‌  ͏‌ 
 
rotating globe
October 8, 2024
semafor

Business

business
Sign up for our free email briefings
 
Liz Hoffman
Liz Hoffman

Hi, and welcome back to Semafor Business.

The rise — reemergence, really — of activist investors in the early 2010s created an army of “corporate defense” strategists, specialized SWAT teams of bankers, lawyers, PR professionals, proxy solicitors, and consultants whose job is to fend off sharp-elbowed investors like Elliott Management and Starboard Value. Their pitch is that the best defense is a good offense: CEOs should think like activists themselves, pruning their own bushes before someone shows up with a pair of shears.

Pfizer did that. Among the first things CEO Albert Bourla did after getting the job was to spin off the company’s consumer-products arm, maker of Advil and Centrum vitamins. Animal health and generic medicines went, too. The company announced $4 billion in cost cuts last year, and another $1.5 billion this year, and said it will restart its paused stock buybacks.

Pfizer is under attack anyway, from Starboard, and the moves he’s already made leave Bourla with fewer levers to pull. He’s already jettisoned divisions and announced an all-in bet on cancer treatments, pulling forward his best defense and leaving him without the kind of “transformational plan” that companies often trot out to blunt critics. All he can do is apologize for pandemic mistakes — namely spending too much money, for too long, helping to save the world from a deadly virus. This fight is going to be a demoralizing slog for everyone.

More on that in today’s newsletter, plus: a damning report on Roblox, Saudi Arabian org-chart shenanigans, and Google’s antitrust hit just keep coming.

Buy/Sell

➚ BUY: Roadblocks. Jamie Dimon said US and UK regulators have made it too hard to go public, noting it’s “odd” that more private companies aren’t listing even with stock prices near all-time highs.

➘ SELL: Roblox. The online gaming site is a bot-addled, abuser-filled “hellscape for kids,” short-seller Hindenburg Research said in a new report today, which found games accessible to minors like “Diddy Party” and “Escape to Epstein Island.” Shares are down more than 3% today.

PostEmail
The Tape

CEOs stay quiet on Oct. 7 anniversary... Saudis buy into Selfridges… ‘Godfather’ of AI wins Nobel… Finance bosses skip COP29 climate confab… China’s game of market chicken… Elizabeth Warren vs. Cocoa Puffs… Who died and left the IRS $7B?...

PostEmail
Org Charts
Ahmed Yosri/Reuters

A story from my Semafor Gulf colleagues: Starting next year, any company wishing to do business in Saudi Arabia will need to make Riyadh its regional hub, rather than nearby Abu Dhabi or Dubai, which offer better live-work-play options. So Western firms are looking for loopholes, setting up “in name only” headquarters in Saudi Arabia while locating executives and running operations elsewhere in the Gulf.

The trend speaks to the walking-on-eggshells nature of doing business in the Middle East. It also makes use of corporate America’s great skill: Handing out titles that don’t mean much but soothe egos.

PostEmail
Vital Signs

Pfizer had a great pandemic. Its post-pandemic run has been tough. Its stock price is down by half since its 2021 high, and CEO Albert Bourla has acknowledged the company misjudged demand for vaccines — and the science-skepticism that turned one of the great pharmaceutical wins in history into a PR minefield. The company’s late entry into the weight-loss business that has boosted rivals like Novo Nordisk (maker of Ozempic) and Eli Lilly (Zepbound) has been costly, too.

Bourla’s job is now under threat: Two former Pfizer executives, including his predecessor and former mentor, Ian Read, have lent their support to an activist investor with a $1 billion stake in the company. The situation has echoes of Disney, which ended with CEO Bob Chapek out of a job.

Activist investors’ complaints are always some version of “make the stock go up.” But Bourla has been trying to do that since he became CEO in 2018, with little to show for his efforts. He spun off the company’s consumer products, animal-health arm, and off-patent drugs, announced $5.5 billion in cost cuts, and refocused Pfizer around a high-growth biotech program. Its shares still trade at the same level, relative to profits, that they did a decade ago.

In our conversation in June, Bourla acknowledged that Pfizer had failed to plan for a post-pandemic world. “Covid is not what it used to be,” he said. “I’m very optimistic that the stock will come back, I hope this year.”

PostEmail
Evidence

Google must relinquish its iron grip on the Android app store. A federal judge ruled Monday — nearly a year after a jury sided with Epic Games, which had sued Google for not allowing third-party app stores to run on Android — that the company can’t pay developers to launch their apps exclusively on its own Play Store or pay smartphone makers to preinstall it. He also had unusually sharp words about Google’s behavior during the trial. Google says it will appeal.

It’s the first major ruling in the US to chip away at Google and Apple’s lock on smartphones. (Epic lost a similar case against Apple in 2021.) In Europe, regulators have taken steps to jailbreak devices to the delight of consumers, who are “getting all kinds of stuff because they have cool regulators, not, like, regular regulators,” The Verge’s Allison Johnson writes.

Also today: The US Justice Department is expected to propose remedies after winning its case that alleged Google unfairly dominates online search. Options range from a forced breakup of the company — unlikely to happen, former DOJ heavyweight Eric Posner says — to restricting its ability to strike exclusive agreements like the one that makes Google the default search engine on iPhones.

Look ahead: A federal judge is expected to rule next month in a separate monopoly case against Google, this one targeting its online ad business. That’s three of the company’s cash cows under serious threat from competition cops.

PostEmail
Obsessions

Last week I wrote about a hot trade on Wall Street right now, in which investment firms buy and sell pieces of each other:

“A short history of modern finance is that someone invents a financial product — a mortgage, for example. Then someone else has the idea to bundle lots of mortgages and slice the resulting bundle into pieces and sell them individually.”

In the mortgage example, loans get bundled into a mortgage bond and then sliced into tranches with different repayment setups. In the private-equity trade, firms get sliced first into “GP stakes” and then bundled into a fund. The result is something like Blue Owl’s GP Stakes Fund III, which offers investors exposure to multiple private-equity firms including Vista and Silver Lake. As far as investment innovations go, this one seems useful.

But here’s the hard part: Those investors will eventually want their money back, and Blue Owl’s options are pretty limited. It could wait for Vista and Silver Lake to go public, but IPOs in this space are the exception. (There are thousands of private-equity firms, and only a dozen or so are listed on an exchange.) It could stall for time by borrowing money to give back, but investors hate that.

It could slice that bundle into still-smaller slices, call them shares of stock, and sell them to the public in an IPO. Blue Owl has thought about doing this. A rival firm, Petershill Partners, actually did, to dismal results. Public investors don’t know what to make of a grab bag of opaque and illiquid investments.

But private-market investors do. That’s their entire business. And so Blue Owl is selling some of the fund to them, then using the money to pay back the original investors. The new investors, which an industry trade pub referred to as “yield oriented long-term investors” (read: insurance companies) will now own a slice of a bundle of slices of private-equity firms. With enough of those new slices, the whole process can start over again. It’s a near-perfect financial carousel.

PostEmail
Live Journalism

What’s in store for the advanced manufacturing workforce in the US? Join Hernan Luis y Prado, Founder and CEO of Workshops for Warriors, Christian Meisner, Chief Human Resources Officer at GE Aerospace, and other industry leaders in Washington D.C., on Oct. 21 to discuss how the United States looks to maintain a competitive edge.

Oct. 21 | Washington, D.C. | Request Invitation

PostEmail
Hot on Semafor

PostEmail