Net Zero

1. Podesta’s China quest
2. Climate finance imbalance
3. Energy shakeup
4. Lending race
5. Mapping heat solutions

Goldman Sachs pulls away from copper, and a former VW exec pulls into fraud court.

Trump looms over US climate envoy’s trip to China

John Podesta, the top US climate envoy, is in China this week for talks with his counterpart Liu Zhenmin as the countries try to find agreement on climate finance, the future of the coal industry, and clean energy trade ahead of the COP29 summit in November.

The visit is one of the last scheduled meetings between US and Chinese officials on any subject before the US presidential election. It’s a chance for Podesta to press China to adopt more ambitious emissions-reductions targets, something both countries are expected to announce at COP or early next year. He can also lay the groundwork for a potential meeting between presidents Joe Biden and Xi Jinping before Biden leaves office — and discuss contingency plans for US-China cooperation on climate in case Donald Trump returns to the White House.

The Nov. 5 election looms large over this meeting. During Trump’s first term, relations with China ground to a halt, especially on climate. On the surface,, there’s little reason for China to agree to anything major with Podesta. House Republicans are expected next week to push forward a number of anti-China bills on electric vehicle tax credits and other issues that, while doomed in the Senate, give a good preview of what China can expect if Trump wins. China has already independently stepped up its climate policy ambitions in the last few months, extending new cheap lending for green energy and curbing permits for new coal plants, among other measures. That means Podesta may have a negotiating partner still willing to keep up the Biden administration’s momentum on climate even if Trump wins.

Climate finance imbalance

The US has continued to fall far short of its “fair” allocation of international climate finance under the Biden administration, even as Japan and some European countries exceed theirs, a new analysis finds.

Wealthy countries agreed in 2009, and reinforced in the 2015 Paris Agreement, to finance $100 billion a year in emissions-reducing projects for less developed nations. UK think tank ODI measures those commitments against a country’s historic cumulative emissions and current per-capita income to estimate its fair share of the costs to combat climate change and ability to pay. Under that method, the US “owes” about $45 billion a year but only financed 32% of that in 2022. Norway, by comparison, donated more than twice the $690 million it “owes.” Resolving this discrepancy will be at the heart of the COP29 summit in November. China is not included in the ODI analysis since, under the original terms of the $100 billion target, it is not considered wealthy enough to be a donor country. But it still contributed $2.5 billion in 2022, the analysis found, making it the top donor among non-obligated countries.

September 25, 2024 | New York City | Request Invitation

Join Tom Steyer, Co-Executive Chair, Galvanize Climate Solutions, Kara Mangone, Head of the Sustainable Finance Group at Goldman Sachs, Mary de Wysocki, SVP and Chief Sustainability Officer at Cisco, and Heather Zichal, Global Head of Sustainability, JPMorgan Chase for an evening of forward-looking discussions on climate finance and AI’s role in advancing low-carbon technologies. As AI enhances climate projects by forecasting risks and boosting energy efficiency, questions remain about whether its energy demands could outweigh the benefits. The conversation will address these concerns while exploring how to ensure investments reach the regions most impacted by climate change.

Energy shakeup

The dismissal of the head of Ukraine’s state-owned electric grid company spurred fears that Western countries could slow their assistance in rebuilding Ukraine’s battered energy system. Volodymyr Kudrytsky, the head of Ukrenergo, was removed on Tuesday over concerns by members of President Vladimir Zelensky’s staff that he had moved too slowly to install protective barriers around the country’s power plants and grid stations, according to local media, following a wave of attacks on energy infrastructure by Russia over the last few weeks that have left Kyiv and other cities gripped by rolling blackouts. Oleksandr Kharchenko, director of the Energy Research Center, told reporters Kudrytsky “earned significant trust from foreign partners,” and warned that his dismissal puts “our ability to keep the lights on this winter in jeopardy.” Two members of Ukrenergo’s board resigned in protest over what they described as a “politically motivated” and unjustified firing. Separately, a wave of top Ukrainian government officials resigned yesterday in one of the biggest cabinet shakeups of the war, including foreign minister Dmytro Kuleba.

Lending race

Loans delivered so far by the US Department of Energy’s Loan Programs Office under Biden, out of a $400 billion clean energy war chest. The office is under increasing pressure to speed up its financing in the next few months over fears that a second Trump administration could put one of the federal government’s biggest climate investment vehicles on ice. But the LPO is constrained by a rigorous review process and a longstanding institutional fear of repeating its notorious and politically damaging Solyndra scandal during the Obama administration.

Mapping heat solutions

Google introduced a new AI-powered tool that city governments can use to plot out solutions to extreme urban heat. The tool, which is now being piloted in 14 US cities, shows which census blocks are most impacted by extreme summer temperatures. It then forecasts how those temperatures would change if city planners do things to mediate it like planting more trees or painting rooftops white to reflect sunlight. The data can also be used to show which blocks would provide the most cooling benefit for the least amount of intervention and to focus on blocks with high levels of income inequality. Miami and Stockton, Calif., are already using the tool to make planning decisions and target scarce financial resources, said Mansi Kansal, a Google product manager who helped design it. Future versions of the tool will include more cities and suggest more heat-reducing solutions, she said.

New Energy

• The next trillion-dollar climate tech business could be grid-scale batteries.
• One of the most powerful forces driving rooftop solar adoption is the “neighborhood effect,” researchers found. In a study in Australia, having one house with solar led to an additional 15-20 solar roofs in the same postcode.
• 131 clean energy projects in the UK won state subsidy contracts at an auction this week, a record.
• Despite high interest rates and other financial bottlenecks, mergers and acquisitions in the US power and energy transition market rose to a record $79 billion in the first half of this year.

Fossil Fuels

• Japan’s engineering firms, banks, and utilities have worked together to seize a commanding position in the liquified natural gas trade network worth at least $14 billion per year.
• French oil major Total is spending up to $100 million on what might be the largest-ever purchase of carbon offsets from US forest conservation projects.

Finance

• Natural disasters could cause global insurers to lose up to $151 billion this year, a 40% increase over the average of the last five years. Climate change, inflation, and development in risky areas are to blame.

Mining & Minerals

• Goldman Sachs is pulling away from copper and slashing its price forecast for the commodity next year, over signs of shrinking demand in China.

EVs

• Volkswagen may close a factory in Germany for the first time, citing financial issues related to the EV transition. Meanwhile, the trial of the company’s former chief executive starts this week over allegations of fraud and perjury in the “Dieselgate” emissions testing scandal that broke in 2015.

Personnel

• The Harris campaign has hired Camila Thorndike, previously of the advocacy group Rewiring America, as “climate engagement director,” Politico reports.

• Chinese loan resurgence sets up Africa summit.
• Austria’s ‘Beer Party’ started as a joke. Now it could determine an election.
• African countries are losing up to 5% of their GDP to climate change.