Flagship

Wagner mutiny casts uncertainty in Russia

Ukrainian and Western leaders trumpeted a weekend standoff in Russia as signs of cracks in President Vladimir Putin’s regime. Yevgeny Prigozhin agreed to leave Russia for Belarus, and withdrew his Wagner mercenary forces — who have done much of the fighting in Ukraine — from a southern Russian military command they had taken control of, in exchange for guarantees of the fighters’ safety. Though little active fighting took place, the crisis exposed deep tensions and competing power structures within Russia’s security apparatus, and illustrated how Putin’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine last year has left his country more vulnerable than before.

The back-and-forth likely left both Putin and Prigozhin weakened: the former having capitulated rather than cracking down, the latter pulling back after realizing “he’d gone too far,” Meduza reported. For Putin, it showed that he no longer retained a monopoly on the use of force within Russia, while the reaction of residents of the town occupied by Wagner — who appeared unmoved by the chaos, and even seemed to cheer the mercenaries — pointed to how his people were “indifferent to his fate,” The Atlantic’s Anne Applebaum noted.

What Russia chaos means for Ukraine

The weekend’s events in Russia underlined growing risks to Moscow’s war in Ukraine. Vladimir Putin’s main international ally, China, only offered its support after the dust had settled, Politico noted, while the latest chaos likely damaged trust within the military — already stretched by the conflict — Atlantic Council analysts said. Were a more sustained crisis to emerge, Russia’s focus on the war would be further clouded and it may have to pull forces back to concentrate on domestic concerns. Western intelligence agencies could also be “reaping an espionage windfall,” taking in Kremlin secrets from officials seeking safe passage out of Russia, the intelligence-focused journalist Jeff Stein wrote. “This was a preview of how the war in Ukraine ends,” the historian Timothy Snyder argued.

Largest-ever Hajj begins

The Hajj pilgrimage began, with 2.5 million Muslims arriving in Mecca for what is expected to be the largest gathering in the event’s history. Muslims who are financially and physically capable are expected to make the journey at least once in their lifetime. But many missed out in the pandemic years, and are taking their opportunity now. Pilgrims visit the Kaaba, the great black stone which is Islam’s holiest site, and Mount Arafat, where the Prophet Muhammad is said to have delivered his last sermon. Muslims often save for many years for the chance to undertake the pilgrimage. This year, applications for the Hajj were processed through a new app, after an unpopular “lottery” system in previous years split up families and ruined plans.

Wind industry sees profits fall

Shares in Siemens Energy, the wind-power giant, fell 37% after a profit warning. Wind power, like other renewables, has been booming in recent years, with capacity quadrupling in a decade. But turbine failures, expensive maintenance of offshore equipment, and rising production costs has driven profits down for several companies. These are teething problems to be expected in a rapidly developing new industry, Forbes reported. And some recent problems, such as semiconductor and labor shortages, are fading away. But real concerns still exist. The industry is still in decent health — Siemens has more than $10 billion in orders — but must acknowledge its difficulties: “Something rarely improves by ignoring it.”

Firms move to protect China business

International companies are increasingly siloing their Chinese operations to mitigate risks over U.S.-China tensions. The most extreme example so far involves the venture-capital firm Sequoia Capital, which is fully separating its American and Chinese businesses. But others are taking steps, too, The Wall Street Journal reported: Salesforce is effectively walling off its China operations, Volkswagen is keeping technology developed within China inside the country, and a Japanese bathroom-products maker is reorganizing its supply chains. Surveys by the U.S. and EU chambers of commerce in China have shown foreign companies are growing downbeat over their prospects in the country, and larger numbers of them have said they are decoupling their headquarters and Chinese operations.

Cocaine production increases

Global cocaine production and sales reached record highs, a United Nations report said. The annual World Drug Report said that the global number of cocaine users is growing steadily, with an estimated 22 million worldwide in 2021, the last year for which data is available. Use is concentrated in the Americas and Europe, but markets in Africa and Asia are growing. Methamphetamine production is also up, notably in Afghanistan, traditionally the world’s heroin factory. The U.N. said that the country’s drug economy was shifting to produce more meth, although it was unclear “whether the two markets will develop in parallel or whether one will substitute the other.”

Post-election tensions in Sierra Leone

International observers urged calm after Sierra Leone’s dueling political parties both claimed victory in a tense election, with results yet to be announced. The country — which has won plaudits for holding a series of largely free and fair elections since the end of a civil war in 2002 — is grappling with huge unemployment, high levels of poverty, and a cost-of-living crisis. The poll is also the first since Sierra Leone passed a law requiring that 30% of MPs be women, up from 13% in the last parliament. Such gender requirements have drawn controversy since they were first used in Argentina in 1991, but “there’s a growing consensus among academics that these quotas ‘work’,” analysts at Foreign Policy noted.

Prison deaths in El Salvador

More than 300 people have died in El Salvador’s prisons since a crackdown on gangs was launched last year. Mass arrests have led to 2% of the country’s population being imprisoned — the highest share in the world — and triggered accusations of rampant rights abuses: Of those who died, 92% were innocent, according to a Salvadoran NGO. The campaign has, however, made El Salvador safer and raised demands for similar policies across the region, where many countries are racked by gang-related violence. Nayib Bukele, El Salvador’s president, remains the most popular leader in Latin America with an approval rating above 90%.

‘Youth’ movement increases max age

The youth wing of the French socialist movement La Convention raised the maximum age of its members to 35, due to a shortage of young people. Libération reported that the group has just 100 members and its two leaders are both 29 themselves. Political parties are aging around the world: In the U.S., a majority of registered Republicans are over 50, as are half of registered Democrat voters. In the U.K. the average age of a Conservative Party member is about 57, and 53 for a Labour member. Old people vote, which is why political parties tend to pander to old people’s needs.

Elton says farewell at Glastonbury

Elton John played his last ever U.K. tour date, headlining the Glastonbury festival. The 76-year-old has sold 300 million records over more than 50 years. He won an Oscar for The Lion King, two Tonys for Aida and Billy Elliot, and too many Grammys to list, inspiring artists from Adele to Eminem. He came on set wearing a gold suit and enormous red-tinted glasses, as tradition demands, and opened with Pinball Wizard, one of the dozens of Elton songs that everyone knows without quite knowing where they first heard it. His long-term collaboration with lyricist Bernie Taupin was one of music’s great partnerships. John, who says he wants to retire to spend more time with his husband and sons, went out on a high.

• New Zealand Prime Minister Chris Hipkins visits China.
• EU foreign ministers meet in Luxembourg to discuss Russia’s war in Ukraine and relations with Latin America.
• International Day against Drug Abuse and Illicit Trafficking.

Is geography destiny?

Jared Diamond’s Guns, Germs and Steel purports to explain why parts of the world got very rich and technologically advanced and then conquered the other bits. It did so using facts about the geography of Eurasia versus Africa and the Americas in particular: Notably, the prevalence of easily domesticated plants and animals, and a broadly east-west-aligned landmass, which allowed the rapid dissemination of technologies and crops.

The book made some people very angry: They felt it was trying to absolve Europeans of their guilt for conquering the world. The historian Davis Kedrosky argues that it was trying to do no such thing, but that — more importantly — its thesis, even 26 years on, very much still holds water.

Water, water everywhere, nor any drop to drink

The Colorado River has dried up so much that the states, districts, and operators that take their water from it have had to agree to lower their demand by 13%. The Mississippi might be going a similar way. Rivers around the U.S. and the world are changing, some drying up, as the climate shifts.

Casey Handmer, a former NASA engineer who now runs a climate technology business, argues that we can improve the supply of water, as well as curtailing demand. There exists cheap, scalable technology to desalinate sea water. “Reverse osmosis” techniques, powered by solar energy, can turn vast volumes of salt water into fresh. Pump that upstream, he argues, and refill the rivers. “We believe that water should be unconditionally abundant,” he says. “We could solve water scarcity not by choosing lots and killing entire industries, but by simply generating more water.”

A lie can run round the world before the truth has got its boots on

The political scientist Brian Klaas has a regret. He debated a conspiracy theorist on British radio once, about Donald Trump and the Hunter Biden-Ukraine corruption claims. Klaas claims to have “wiped the floor” with his opponent — but, by doing the debate on the conspiracy theorist’s terrain, worries he lost the war even if he won the battle, giving the Hunter-Ukraine link more air time than it deserved.

In this piece he talks about the lessons he learned from that, and how best to combat disinformation. There are some useful ideas in there, although Flagship’s Tom wonders if Klaas is overthinking it: If someone is made to sound like an idiot on the radio, most listeners will probably tend to disbelieve what they say.

Swallow Whole, a new exhibition inspired by the human body, opened in New York this month. Growing up the Beijing-born artist Zhang Zipiao told Artnet she was mesmerized by her doctor mother poring over videos of gastrointestinal surgeries as she prepared for work, remembering watching an endoscopic camera make its way down a patient’s throat and into the stomach and intestines. “I wasn’t exactly sure what I was seeing,” she said. “From that perspective, the body becomes very abstract.” Zipiao’s oil paintings, in sweeping strokes of pink and purple, are similarly symbolic in their exploration of flesh, flowers, and fruit.

• Republicans are beating the drum on unverified allegations against Biden — the exact same behavior they’ve accused Democrats of doing with the Steele dossier, Jordan Weissman wrote.
• RFK Jr. is running for president of podcastland. Dave Weigel looked at how the Democratic candidate is getting his message out without traditional media.
• A new generation of data centers being built in Africa’s smaller economies are fueling a $5 billion market opportunity, Alexis Akwagyiram reported.