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Trump reportedly signs off on a US plan of attack on Iran’s nuclear facilities, the FDA approves a ‘͏‌  ͏‌  ͏‌  ͏‌  ͏‌  ͏‌ 
 
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June 19, 2025
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The World Today

  1. Trump said to back strikes
  2. GOP split over Iran
  3. ‘Miracle’ HIV drug
  4. Time short for 1.5°C target
  5. China’s currency ambitions
  6. Europe disinflation risks
  7. US eyes new travel bans
  8. New Colombia labor law
  9. Honda enters space race
  10. LA Lakers sell for $10B

The box-office draw of the PG movie, and a Haydn piano concerto performed by the late, great Alfred Brendel.

1

Trump said to approve strikes

Donald Trump.
Nathan Howard/Reuters

President Donald Trump has approved US attack plans for Iran, but is withholding giving the final go-ahead to see if Tehran abandons its nuclear ambitions, The Wall Street Journal reported. Iran’s key Fordo enrichment facility is buried deep underground, with only the US holding the deep-penetration bombs required to hit it, and Trump has been pressing his aides on whether such a strike would work, according to Axios. While he deliberates, the war goes on: An Israeli hospital and another Iranian nuclear site were hit, with the growing hostilities likely to significantly affect the global economy. Oil tanker operators, for example, have more than doubled their previous rates to sail through the Strait of Hormuz.

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2

Trump base divided over threats

Ted Cruz and Tucker Carlson. Tucker Carlson Network/Handout via/Reuters
US Senator Ted Cruz (R-TX) and Tucker Carlson. Tucker Carlson Network/Handout via/Reuters

US President Donald Trump’s threats to attack Iran are splitting his political base as he backs away from a long-held pledge to avoid foreign conflicts. Republicans are divided between those who support strikes aimed at ensuring Iran does not obtain a nuclear weapon, and the party’s nationalist MAGA wing, much of which opposes intervention: A Washington Post poll found only 47% of GOP voters back taking action. Trump has spent the early months of his term negotiating with Iran over its nuclear program and seeking to restrain Israel — unsuccessfully — from attacking Iran. His apparent reversal has fueled supporters’ concerns about a “massive schism in MAGA.”

For more from Trump’s Washington, subscribe to Semafor’s daily US politics briefing. →

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3

‘Miracle’ new HIV drug

A chart showing the HIV population by continent.

US regulators approved an HIV drug described as a “miracle” by the UN for its ability to prevent infections with two doses a year. When given to people at risk of HIV in the US and Africa, Gilead’s lenacapavir vastly outperformed the standard pre-exposure prophylaxis drug, which requires taking several pills daily. The drug works by stopping the virus infecting cells and replicating within them, and has previously been approved for use as a post-infection treatment, but is so long-acting that it can work preventatively even if only injected every six months. Gilead’s CEO said it could “end the HIV epidemic once and for all.” Almost 40 million people are living with HIV worldwide, with two-thirds of cases in Africa.

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4

Global carbon budget running out

A chart showing global CO2 by region.

The world will have emitted too much carbon dioxide within the next three years to keep below the 1.5°C warming target, a new study suggested. The 2015 Paris Agreement saw governments pledge to limit warming to 1.5°C, which scientists regard as a critical turning point. But with temperature increases accelerating, new research estimates that the remaining carbon “budget” to avoid passing the threshold dropped from 500 billion tons in 2021 to 130 billion now, less than three years’ worth at current rates. The International Energy Agency predicts that oil use will peak before 2030, but that forecast is contested: OilPrice.com noted that global uptake of green technologies may be slowing.

For more on the battle against climate change, subscribe to Semafor’s Net Zero briefing. →

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5

China pushes ‘multi-polar’ currency world

A chart showing the world’s currency reserves.

China’s central bank governor set out his vision for a “multi-polar” currency order, part of Beijing’s long-running efforts to dethrone the dollar. Washington derives huge benefit from the dollar’s role as the world’s reserve currency, allowing it to borrow more cheaply and impose economic sanctions on countries it wants to punish. Yet with mounting threats to the dollar’s dominance, others see opportunity, from Beijing, which wants to increase global use of its yuan, to Brussels, which has touted a “global euro.” The US Treasury secretary is hopeful, however, that Washington’s embrace of crypto and stablecoins — it passed new legislation this week — could “reinforce dollar supremacy” by making the US a hub for digital assets and its currency a reference point.

For more on global currencies, subscribe to Semafor’s Business briefing. →

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6

Swiss cut spotlights Europe disinflation

The Swiss National Bank building.
Denis Balibouse/File Photo/Reuters

The Swiss National Bank lowered interest rates to zero, spotlighting worries of falling inflation in Europe. The central bank’s decision — along with a similar move by Norway — marks a contrast to peers across the rich world, most of whom are holding fire as they await more information on the economic impact of Washington’s tariffs and the Israel-Iran conflict. The continent largely expects both inflation and growth to slow, however, and the Swiss decision serves as “a reminder of the disinflation risks in core Europe,” Commerzbank economists wrote in a note to clients, while European economic growth has “never really recovered from the 2008 financial crisis,” a Center for European Reform paper warned.

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7

US eyes new travel restrictions

A chart showing the travel restrictions on African nations.

The US is considering extending travel restrictions to dozens of nations, including around 25 in Africa. The restrictions — which would follow those already imposed on 10 African countries this year — would include Nigeria, the continent’s most populous nation, The Washington Post reported. Washington is believed to be targeting those countries for their high share of visa overstays, among other reasons. Meanwhile the State Department will restart student visa applications, but said it would require applicants to have their social media profiles open for the government to review. The moves could further alienate foreign students, including from Africa: “China is the future,” a Ghanaian student in Nanjing told The New York Times.

For more from the continent, subscribe to Semafor’s Africa briefing. →

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8

New Colombia labor law

A chart showing GDP per hour worked for several nations.

Colombia approved a labor law that limits the working day to eight hours and boosts overtime pay, moves the country’s president said were long overdue. While laborers across Latin America work some of the world’s longest hours, the region’s productivity is a fraction of that of wealthy nations. Meanwhile a huge share of workers are in the informal sector, meaning labor laws such as Colombia’s fail to reach them; some economists even forecast that a greater regulatory burden could dampen hiring and could push more people into the informal sector. Unless such issues are addressed, “the productivity of Latin American workers will remain low,” the World Bank said last year.

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9

Honda joins space race

The explosion of the SpaceX rocket.
The explosion of the SpaceX rocket. TheRocketFuture via X/via Reuters

Honda unexpectedly entered the commercial space race, launching and landing its first reusable rocket. The 20-foot craft reached 900 feet in the air before landing precisely on its touchdown point in northern Japan. The Japanese car manufacturer has been involved in spaceflight-related equipment since 2021, including fuel cells and electrolysis systems for use in space, but kept its rocket plans “relatively quiet,” Gizmodo reported, making the launch a surprise. Japan wants to double the size of its space industry by the early 2030s. Honda is some way from challenging SpaceX’s dominance of the sector, although it may be heartened by the fact that the US company’s latest test of its giant Starship rocket ended in an explosion on the launchpad.

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10

Lakers sell for $10 billion

LeBron James dunking.
Creative Commons photo/Haute/CC BY 4.0.

The Los Angeles Lakers — one of professional basketball’s most glamorous and storied franchises — were sold for $10 billion. The price, far higher than the prior record of about $6 billion for their historic rivals the Boston Celtics, showcases both the breakneck growth in valuations of sports teams, as well as the Lakers’ unique draw. But though the Lakers have won the second most NBA titles, and LeBron James, arguably the greatest basketball player ever, is currently a member, they have not historically been among the league’s biggest-spending teams. So their purchase by Mark Walter, chief executive of the financial firm Guggenheim Partners, may bode well for their on-court prospects: “Laker fans should be ecstatic,” team legend Magic Johnson posted.

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Flagging
  • The US commemorates Juneteenth, marking the end of slavery in the country.
  • The Finnish parliament is due to vote on its withdrawal from a landmark treaty banning the use of landmines.
  • Predominantly Catholic countries across the world celebrate Corpus Christi, a holiday marking the Last Supper.
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Semafor Stat
$3.18 BILLION

The cumulative gross box-office take of PG-rated films in the US in 2024. Traditionally, PG-13 movies, aimed at teens, have dominated film revenues; the highest-grossing recent franchises, including those of Marvel and Star Wars, have been rated for 13s and up. But something changed last year, when seven of the 10 biggest movies, including Sonic the Hedgehog 3, Mufasa: The Lion King, and Moana 2, were rated PG. An analyst told Variety that “wholesome” movies without too much violence or language were like “comfort food,” although another point is that the seven biggest PG releases last year were sequels, reboots, or prequels; movies without a widely familiar IP tended to flounder.

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Semafor Recommends

Joseph Haydn’s Piano Sonata in E Minor, performed by Alfred Brendel. The pianist Brendel died this week aged 95, and unlike his younger peers, focused throughout his career on the works of a few composers, notably Beethoven, Haydn, Mozart, and Schubert, nurturing their works “with almost spiritual diligence,” according to The New York Times’ classical music critic Zachary Wolfe. In particular, he championed Haydn and Schubert when they were unfashionable; this performance finds “unexpected complexity in fairly straightforward music,” Wolfe says, easing from “diamond-sharp pointedness [to] mysterious tenderness.” Listen to Piano Sonata in E Minor on Spotify.

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Semafor Spotlight
New York City comptroller Brad Lander appears in the streets following his arrest.
Brendan McDermid/Reuters

Over the last month, four elected Democrats have been arrested, publicly handcuffed, or charged with obstructing law enforcement, the latest being New York City mayoral candidate Brad Lander, Semafor’s David Weigel reported.

Many Democrats have described these as instances of “tyranny,” while the default Republican response is to say that “no one is above the law.”

Republicans like any contrast that puts them on the side of law enforcement, Weigel wrote, no matter who is being cuffed.

Sign up for Semafor Americana: an insider’s guide to American power. →

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