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US President Donald Trump reportedly considers striking Iran, tensions between OpenAI and Microsoft ͏‌  ͏‌  ͏‌  ͏‌  ͏‌  ͏‌ 
 
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June 18, 2025
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The World Today

Semafor “World Today” map graphic.
  1. Trump weighs Iran strike
  2. China, Russia watch on
  3. US retail sales slide
  4. ‘Revenge tax’ debates
  5. India’s superpower ambitions
  6. OpenAI-Microsoft tensions
  7. Speculative stock rally
  8. German drone-maker boost
  9. Ukraine’s digitization
  10. Dinosaur up for auction

How a German abstractionist served as a precursor to Andy Warhol.

1

Trump weighing Iran strike

Chart showing American views on whether US military should enter Israel-Iran conflict.

US President Donald Trump is reportedly seriously considering striking Iran to thwart its nuclear ambitions, raising the specter of a wider war. Trump on Tuesday called for “unconditional surrender” from Tehran and warned US patience was wearing thin. Trump appears to have abandoned a diplomatic approach toward Tehran after realizing he could not deter Israel’s expansive assault, which he has now become publicly supportive of following its success, The New York Times wrote. Only the US possesses the bunker-busting bombs capable of destroying Iranian enrichment facilities buried deep underground. But US military involvement could exacerbate a conservative schism, as some members of Trump’s MAGA coalition want to stay out of another foreign war.

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2

Russia, China stay on the sidelines

A split image of Russia’s President Vladimir Putin and Chinese leader Xi Jinping.
Maxim Shemetov/Reuters/Sputnik/Alexander Kazakov/Pool via Reuters

Two top US adversaries are sidestepping the Israel-Iran conflict, though both have high-stakes interests in the region. Russia lacks the tools to influence the conflict, Bloomberg wrote, and is prioritizing its own war against Ukraine. While Moscow stands to benefit from a new Middle East war that would raise oil prices — and divert attention and aid away from Ukraine — it could also endanger Russia’s economic interests in Iran. China, which shares Tehran and Moscow’s opposition to US hegemony, likely won’t rush to help Iran either, analysts said, but Beijing would feel the pinch if Iranian oil exports are cut off. In what one China commentator called a “very balanced” statement, Chinese leader Xi Jinping called for de-escalation Tuesday.

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3

US retail sales slide amid tariff pessimism

A Manhattan Target location.
Kylie Cooper/Reuters

US retail sales fell sharply last month, following an earlier burst of consumer spending aimed at getting ahead of tariffs. The new data, marking the largest drop in two years, is the latest sign of softening domestic demand amid tariff-induced volatility. “You can see cracks forming in spending,” one economist said. “We should be wary about the direction of consumption.” The pullback comes despite inflation easing in May, beating economists’ forecasts as companies didn’t dramatically hike prices, despite warnings. Markets are holding steady, but pessimists worry gloomy economic vibes will eventually become reality, Semafor’s Liz Hoffman wrote: And “historically, the pessimists are right.” Analysts expect such uncertainty will lead the US Federal Reserve to keep interest rates steady on Wednesday.

For more economic insights and Wall Street scoops, subscribe to Semafor Business. →

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4

US ‘revenge tax’ scaled back

Chart showing US views on Republicans’ tax and spending package.

US senators softened a proposed “revenge tax” targeting some foreign companies and investors, as uncertainty surrounding the measure risks exacerbating trade frictions. The provision, officially called Section 899, is part of Republicans’ massive tax-and-spending package dubbed the “Big, Beautiful Bill.” Business lobbyists have worked to kill the tax, which would apply to countries that the US argues have unfairly taxed American firms. The Senate’s modifications on Monday could lift international investor sentiment, Commerzbank analysts said, but it “does not solve the fundamental problem” of the measure: The US “is rather one-sided in determining which international taxes it considers discriminatory.” Opponents fear it could deter foreign investment in the US at a time when the appetite for American assets has already taken a hit.

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5

India’s foreign policy paradox

India’s Prime Minister Narendra Modi.
Stavros Ioannides/PIO/Handout via Reuters

India is growing rapidly, but the country’s “perennial discomfort with alliances” will thwart its ambitions to become a superpower, an expert argued in Foreign Affairs. India’s foreign policy centers on strategic autonomy, eschewing traditional ties and maintaining relations with the US, but also the West’s adversaries like Iran, while opposing Washington and Beijing’s hegemonic aspirations. But that mentality — seeking US support while pushing for a multipolar world order that limits Washington’s power — is “both counterproductive and unwise,” Ashley Tellis, a former US State official, wrote. Though more companies are expanding manufacturing in India, it is also not growing fast enough to credibly challenge China, Tellis argued: In the coming decades, India will become stronger, but “less able to wield that strength.”

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6

OpenAI-Microsoft tensions swell

OpenAI CEO Sam Altman.
TechCrunch/Wikimedia Commons. CC BY 2.0

Tensions are reportedly swelling between OpenAI and Microsoft. The tech giant and artificial intelligence company, which have a multibillion-dollar partnership, are in a standoff over OpenAI’s $3 billion acquisition of AI coding startup Windsurf. OpenAI executives don’t want Microsoft to access Windsurf’s intellectual property, and have discussed filing antitrust complaints against Microsoft, The Wall Street Journal reported. Microsoft first invested in OpenAI in 2019, but has since become its competitor in some arenas like search as the startup has grown with the AI boom. “Artificial general intelligence,” which refers to AI with humanlike cognitive abilities, is another sticking point: Microsoft’s access to OpenAI’s tech is set to be curtailed if the latter achieves AGI.

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7

Chinese herbal medicine stock surges

Chart showing Regencell Bioscience’s stock performance since January 2.

Shares of a tiny Chinese herbal medicine company spiked on Tuesday in a speculative rally that created a $26 billion fortune for its founder. The Nasdaq-listed Regencell Bioscience Holding said it develops treatments for childhood ADHD and autism; though it has zero revenue, its stock has soared 58,000% this year, giving it a market value surpassing Lululemon and Kraft Heinz. US markets have occasionally seen international firms with minimal sales surge in value before cooling, and the exact reason for Regencell’s rally is unclear. But it comes amid a heightened US focus on alternative medicines after Health Secretary Robert F. Kennedy Jr. vowed to identify the cause of autism and make it easier to access experimental treatments.

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Live Journalism
Semafor Live Journalism graphic: Solving the Youth Wellbeing Challenge.

Can we reconnect a generation? A mental health crisis is gripping young people, with rates of depression, anxiety, and loneliness rising. As social bonds fray and digital life deepens isolation, experts are sounding the alarm and demanding action.

Join Daniel Zoltani, Executive Director of the Whole Foods Market Foundation; Sara DeWitt, Senior Vice President and General Manager of PBS KIDS; January Contreras, Former Assistant Secretary for the Administration for Children and Families, US Department of Health and Human Services; and Steve Bullock, Former Governor of Montana, as Semafor explores the complex drivers of youth wellbeing, highlighting opportunities to rebuild social ties, foster resilience, and develop lasting strategies to improve the mental health of young people.

July 16, 2025 | Washington, DC | RSVP

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8

Investment boost for defense tech firms

An Anduril Industries Fury autonomous air vehicle is displayed at the 55th International Paris Airshow.
Benoit Tessier/Reuters

Spotify’s founder invested $700 million in a German defense startup, part of a wider European move to invest in military manufacturing. Helsing — named after the vampire hunter in Bram Stoker’s Dracula — makes artificial intelligence software, but is expanding to create its own drones and other hardware. Spotify’s Daniel Ek was among Helsing’s first major backers in 2021, and told the Financial Times that he is “doubling down” on the firm. Defense tech firms are hot property — US startup Anduril and European dronemakers Quantum Systems and Tekever have both seen their valuations shoot up in recent months, while Helsing’s has more than doubled to $14 billion in less than a year, largely thanks to wars in Ukraine and the Middle East.

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9

Ukraine leads in govt. digital services

Diia app interface.
Ministry of Digital Transformation of Ukraine

Ukraine’s government services are among the most digitized in the world, despite three years of war. The “Diia” app allows users to access and register for all state functions — marriages, housing deeds, driving licenses. Ukrainians can even vote for the national Eurovision Song Contest representative. Other countries have similar apps, but few if any have as much uptake as Ukraine’s — 22 million of the country’s roughly 33 million adults are signed up. Ukraine has many skilled software engineers, Kyiv’s digital minister told the BBC — several overseas countries use them for outsourced IT projects — and their lower wages mean Diia was made for less than $10 million, a fraction of what it might have cost in the UK or US.

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10

Multimillion-dollar auction of dinosaur

A juvenile Ceratosaurus, the only known specimen of its kind.
Sothebys/X

The auction of a 150-million-year-old dinosaur could fetch millions of dollars — and distort the market for fossils and the land from which they are dug, The New York Times reported. The juvenile ceratosaurus, a Jurassic predator, is one of just four of the species ever found, and is predicted to fetch up to $6 million. The market for dinosaur fossils is hot: Last year, a stegosaurus nicknamed “Apex” sold for $45 million. But paleontologists told the Times that the high-profile sales could hurt research. Dig site leases are expensive, and if landowners see multimillion-dollar auctions, they might raise them further, squeezing out academic renters. But the auctioneers argue it would attract more funding from potential donors.

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Flagging

June 18:

  • Japan publishes trade data for May.
  • Indonesia’s President Prabowo Subianto visits Moscow to meet with Russia’s Vladimir Putin.
  • The 33rd Raindance Film Festival, celebrating independent film, begins in London.
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Curio
Gabriele Münter’s linocut “Aurélie” (1906).
Gabriele Münter, “Aurélie” (1906). Städtische Galerie Im Lenbachhaus/Kunstbau München

A new exhibition at Paris’ Musee d’Art Moderne casts light on the pioneering German abstractionist Gabriele Münter. Münter was the student and partner of fellow Der Blaue Reiter movement co-founder Wassily Kandinsky, and was often unfairly minimized as such. Münter’s first-ever France retrospective aims to rectify that by highlighting her own profound influence: In particular, a linocut series of a maid at her Paris boarding house serves as a “distant precursor” to Andy Warhol’s silkscreens. Ironically, Münter’s contributions were further overshadowed later on by a large trove of Kandinsky works she saved from destruction by the Nazis — “it is now high time to set that record straight,” Le Monde wrote.

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Semafor Spotlight
YouTube IShowSpeed in a Chinese SUV.
@livespeedy7451/YouTube

American YouTuber IShowSpeed’s viral trip to China, amplified by Chinese state media, is part of a broader Beijing effort to reshape its global image using foreign influencers, Zichen Wang writes for Semafor.

A video of the influencer marveling at a Chinese SUV that floats in water, as well as Huawei’s new foldable phone, amassed nearly 9 million views — a clear soft power coup.

Wang’s surprising advice? Beijing should disclose its sponsorship and embrace American-style transparency.

Sign up for Semafor Media, a Sunday evening briefing of the news behind the news. →

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