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US markets rebound on trade talk momentum, Indians’ perception of the US changes, and Pakistan’s cap͏‌  ͏‌  ͏‌  ͏‌  ͏‌  ͏‌ 
 
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May 28, 2025
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The World Today

Semafor “World Today” map graphic.
  1. US markets rebound
  2. Tariffs weigh on small biz
  3. SE Asia a diplomatic hub
  4. US-China arms race in Pacific
  5. Pentagon reinforces NATO
  6. New crackdown on Harvard
  7. Indians’ perception of US
  8. Islamabad bans child marriage
  9. A need for urban rewilding
  10. Thomas Sankara memorial

A new exhibition shows how trees and snakes create a shared “visual vocabulary” for three religions.

1

US markets rebound on trade talk hopes

US shoppers at Target.
Vincent Alban/Reuters

US markets rebounded Tuesday over trade talk optimism and rising consumer sentiment. The S&P 500 rose 2%, its best day in two weeks, while US Treasury yields dipped. Investors were likely encouraged by US President Donald Trump hailing “positive” steps in trade negotiations with the European Union, after he delayed 50% tariffs on the bloc until July 9 and Brussels agreed to “fast-track” talks. “The trade tensions that had flared have already been extinguished, yet again, and now they’ll include an express lane,” one expert said. New data also showed US consumer confidence rose this month after five straight months of declines, driven in part by the temporary deescalation in the US-China trade war.

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2

Tariffs still weigh on small businesses

Worker at Spanish hat factory.
Marcelo del Pozo/Reuters

Even as markets have been buoyed by trade talk momentum and a temporary easing of US tariffs, there are signs the trade war is still weighing on small- and medium-sized businesses globally. A US startup that imports patented water bottles from China was close to being profitable, but is now struggling despite the tariff détente with Beijing. A Canadian aluminum trader filed for bankruptcy this week, saying that despite reduced levies, the cost “is still well above the market’s ability to absorb.” And as the European Union plans to accelerate trade talks with Washington, a top Spanish supplier of hats to Orthodox Jewish communities in the US warned that higher tariffs on the EU could put it out of business.

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3

SE Asia a hub for diplomacy

Hasnoor Hussain/Reuters

Southeast Asia is a nexus of global diplomacy this week, with tariffs and the US-China battle for influence dominating the agenda. On a tour of the region, China’s premier urged ASEAN nations and several Gulf countries to create a “vibrant economic circle” with China, as they agreed to strengthen trade ties in Kuala Lumpur. French President Emmanuel Macron visited Hanoi and signed $10 billion-worth of deals, pitching Europe as a reliable trading partner for Southeast Asia. And amid US criticism of China’s military assertiveness, Beijing’s defense minister will likely skip a major defense conference in Singapore. ASEAN nations are caught between Beijing and Washington, but one Malaysia-based analyst told Bloomberg, “There is no substitute for the United States.”

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4

US-China arms race over Taiwan

Chinese PLA Air Force pilots holding model fighter planes practice flying during a training session for a anniversary military parade in Beijing.
jhphoto - Oriental Image via Reuters

Washington and Beijing are both stepping up their military capabilities to prepare for a possible Chinese invasion of Taiwan. China — which sees Taiwan as a breakaway province it will eventually absorb — has ramped up its ability to rapidly switch from peacetime to war operations, including readying aviation units that could air-drop onto the island, the Financial Times reported. The US is trying to catch up to Beijing’s formidable buildup in the Pacific; a new US antiship missile launcher, deployed in the Philippines, may give it an edge, The Wall Street Journal wrote. The US believes Beijing wants the capability to invade Taiwan by 2027, but one expert said that while China’s army has made strides, it hasn’t fully adapted to modern warfare.

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5

US helps reinforce NATO front

US troops riding an APC take part in NATO exercises in Poland.
Ints Kalnins/Reuters

The US military is doubling down on defense commitments in parts of Europe amid concerns of Russian aggression, despite US President Trump’s criticism of NATO and his reshaping of transatlantic ties. The Pentagon is helping reinforce the alliance’s position on the continent’s northern front, recently conducting joint drills aimed at deterring Russia, reflecting Trump’s push for NATO to be more “lethal,” The Wall Street Journal wrote. The live-fire exercises come as Trump’s warmness toward Moscow devolves into frustration over languishing Ukraine peace talks: Trump on Tuesday said the Kremlin is “playing with fire,” as he considers sanctions on Moscow that could reportedly come as soon as this week.

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6

Trump moves to end all Harvard grants

US President Donald Trump.
Nathan Howard/Reuters

The White House moved to cancel remaining federal contracts to Harvard University amid an escalating battle with American universities. Harvard has already sued the Donald Trump administration over halted funding and a ban on enrolling international students. But Trump’s higher education crackdown goes beyond Harvard: The government on Tuesday ordered a pause on new student visa interviews as it weighs implementing a social media check as part of the application process, Politico reported. The moves are part of a larger “attack on knowledge itself,” The Atlantic’s Adam Serwer argued: By targeting institutions, canceling grants, and firing government researchers, Trump is impairing “the ability to solve problems, prevent disease, design policy, inform the public, and make technological advancements.”

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7

Indians may be souring on US

Chart showing sources of India’s inward remittances.

President Donald Trump’s agenda threatens to dent Indians’ perceptions of the US. Trump’s sweeping budget bill proposes a 3.5% levy on money sent home by visa and green card-holders, posing a particular dilemma for India, the world’s top recipient of remittances — the plurality of which come from the US. “This tax adds to the souring of the American dream for many Indians,” the Financial Times wrote. Some Indians are reconsidering plans to study in the US amid Trump’s efforts to bar international students from enrolling at Harvard. And his recent comments on the India-Pakistan conflict, along with his lambasting of Apple for increased Indian production, ratcheted up diplomatic and economic tensions between New Delhi and Washington amid trade talks.

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Live Journalism
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As electricity demand soars — driven by the rapid expansion of data centers and AI — pressure is mounting to scale secure and reliable energy resources.

Join Semafor for a timely conversation with Rep. Brett Guthrie, R-Ky., and Aamir Paul, President of North American Operations at Schneider Electric, as they discuss how the new Administration plans to accelerate domestic energy production — and whether current infrastructure is up to the task. The discussion will also explore the innovative policies and technologies that could help close the growing supply-demand gap.

June 11, 2025 | Washington, DC | RSVP

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8

Islamabad bans child marriage

Chart showing countries with the most child marriages.

Pakistan’s capital Islamabad banned child marriage, offering hope that the practice could eventually be outlawed across the country. The bill faced fierce opposition in parliament, with some religious leaders criticizing it as “un-Islamic.” But proponents said the bill’s passing Friday shows that Pakistan is bucking the trend of a global rollback of women’s rights, The Guardian reported: “It’s a very important signal to the country… and to women that their rights are protected at the top,” one lawmaker said. Still, Pakistan is among the 10 countries with the highest number of child marriages; climate-fueled catastrophic flooding has led to a surge of “monsoon brides” as poverty-stricken families in villages marry off their young daughters for money.

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9

The case for urban rewilding

Birds gather in a contaminated mangrove swamp in Panama City.
Enea Lebrun/Reuters

“Urban rewilding” could help city dwellers reconnect with nature and improve ecosystems, scientists argued. Successful rewilding efforts have led to the return of wolves to much of the US and Europe. But efforts have been focused on reintroducing animals to remote areas, whereas cities are the scene of the greatest biodiversity loss. Some urban conservation programs have brought charismatic animals back to cities: There are now platypuses in Sydney, howler monkeys in Rio, and beavers in London. That process should be accelerated, two ecological experts argued in The Conservation: It creates more complete ecosystems in cities, and “by bringing native animals back… we can create everyday opportunities for people to see, hear and connect with wildlife.”

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10

Sankara memorial opens on murder site

A rendering of Kéré Architecture’s Thomas Sankara memorial.
Render by Kéré Architecture

A memorial to Burkina Faso’s revolutionary leader Thomas Sankara, designed by the first African winner of the Pritzker Architecture Prize, opened in Ouagadougou. Sankara, who led Burkina Faso to independence in 1983 but was assassinated four years later in a coup, is referred to as “Africa’s Che Guevara.” He is credited with advancing women’s rights and boosting literacy and healthcare in the country, although he also suppressed political opposition and labor unions. Francis Kéré, a native of Burkina Faso, designed the mausoleum — built using local materials and featuring a 280-foot spire — on the site where Sankara’s second-in-command murdered him and 12 of his aides.

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Flagging

May 28:

  • France releases its first-quarter GDP estimate and inflation figures for April.
  • Nvidia and Salesforce report first-quarter earnings.
  • Actress Carey Mulligan celebrates her 40th birthday.
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Curio
Gaja-Lakshmi (Elephant Lakshmi), from 1780.
Gaja-Lakshmi (Elephant Lakshmi), 1780. The British Museum

A new exhibition at the British Museum explores the shared “visual vocabulary” of Hindu, Buddhist, and Jain traditions. Featuring more than 180 sculptures, paintings, and drawings, Ancient India: Living Traditions examines how religious deities once represented through abstract natural forms like trees and snakes were increasingly anthropomorphized in response to the “popular need to see, interact with and be reassured by sacred figures in tangible ways,” historian Peter Frankopan wrote in the Financial Times. Still, “this sacred ecology endures today,” he wrote, showing that “plants and trees are not just botanical lifeforms but living embodiments of divine presence.”

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Semafor Spotlight
A SolarWinds illustration displayed on a smartphone.
Thomas Fuller/SOPA Images via Reuters

SolarWinds is eyeing double-digit revenue growth in the Gulf as the Texas-based IT software company rebuilds following a cyberattack in 2020, Semafor’s Kelsey Warner reported.

More than 80% of government entities in Saudi Arabia, the UAE, and Qatar already use its software, and the now privately held company aims to accelerate the rollout of new tools for the artificial intelligence age, SolarWinds’ chief technology officer said.

To dive into the stories shaping the Arabian Peninsula and the world, Sign up for Semafor Gulf. →

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