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The Iranian president’s death in a helicopter crash raises already high regional tensions, the Democ͏‌  ͏‌  ͏‌  ͏‌  ͏‌  ͏‌ 
 
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May 20, 2024
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The World Today

  1. Iranian president dead
  2. Zuma can’t run in SA
  3. DRC coup averted
  4. OpenAI on safety concerns
  5. Taiwan’s balancing act
  6. Milei offends Spanish PM
  7. Mexico opposition protests
  8. Texas energy prices spike
  9. Man City’s dubious win
  10. Shop scanner turns 50

The London Review of Substacks, and a much-loved Argentine author’s short stories are translated into English for the first time.

1

Iran president killed in crash

Majid Asgaripour/WANA via Reuters

Iran’s President Ebrahim Raisi died in a helicopter accident, sparking questions over long-term succession in the Islamic Republic and further raising tensions in a tinderbox region. Analysts said the immediate consequences for Iran’s foreign and domestic policies would likely be limited, given the overwhelming power of Iran’s Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei. But Raisi — a hardline cleric known for brutally suppressing dissent — had been a leading contender to succeed Khamenei, who is 85 and will now probably be replaced by his own son. Raisi’s death could also ignite an electoral battle among other ultraconservatives, with a new presidential election set to take place within 50 days, and may spur speculation in a “conspiratorial political culture” over whether his death was truly an accident.

The crash, which also killed Iran’s foreign minister, comes at a perilous moment in the Middle East: Tehran has veered close to broader conflict with both Israel and the US in recent months as the impact of the war in Gaza has reverberated across the region. Israel itself is in a measure of domestic turmoil with a top member of the country’s war cabinet threatening to quit over the lack of a post-conflict plan for Gaza. And a visit by Saudi Arabia’s Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman to Japan was abruptly postponed over the ill health of his 88-year-old father, the Saudi king.

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2

Zuma barred from SA vote

Jacob Zuma, the former South African president, was barred from running in the country’s election next week. The nation’s top court said that Zuma’s criminal conviction for contempt of court, after failing to appear at a corruption inquiry, left him ineligible. Zuma, once a star of the ruling African National Congress, was running for a breakaway group and while unlikely to win power himself was in position to be a potential kingmaker: The ANC is facing corruption scandals and economic difficulties, and may get below 50% of the vote for the first time since the end of apartheid. The decision could aggravate an already tense political situation in South Africa, The New York Times reported.

For more on the world’s most important elections, check out Semafor’s Global Election Hub. →

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3

DRC coup attempt foiled

Christian Malanga/Handout via Reuters

The Democratic Republic of Congo army said it had foiled a coup attempt involving US nationals. A military spokesperson said the purported leader of the putsch was killed during an assault on the presidency offices in the capital, where witnesses reported hearing gunfire, while a separate attack took place at the home of a senior lawmaker. The US ambassador to the country said she was “very concerned” by the reports of Americans being part of the attempted coup, and pledged to help Kinshasa “hold accountable any US citizen involved in criminal acts.” The DRC has been in political stasis since President Felix Tshisekedi’s reelection in December, with no new government yet unveiled.

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4

OpenAI addresses safety concerns

OpenAI CEO Sam Altman. Flickr.

OpenAI’s leaders defended their company’s safety efforts. CEO Sam Altman detailed OpenAI’s steps to ensure safe AI development, after executives who led the “superalignment” team tasked with preventing artificial intelligence from destroying the world, quit. Jan Leike in particular said that he had long been “disagreeing with OpenAI leadership” when it came to safety. Altman said Leike was right: “We have a lot more to do [but] we are committed to doing it.” The potential catastrophic risks of AI are an increasingly mainstream concern: A summit on the topic kicks off in Seoul this week, and the UK, which is co-hosting the meeting, said it would open a new office of its AI Safety Institute in San Francisco.

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5

Taiwan president makes careful speech

Carlos Garcia Rawlins/Reuters

Taiwan’s new president voiced openness to talks with Beijing but pushed back on the mainland’s alleged territorial encroachment in a carefully worded inauguration speech. Analysts said Lai Ching-te’s remarks largely reinforced the status quo between China and Taiwan, a self-governing island which the former regards as a renegade province. The speech was — unsurprisingly — greeted with disdain by Beijing: A foreign ministry spokesman said the inauguration did not change the “historical and legal fact” that the island belongs to China. The event itself had many lighter moments, replete with a giant rainbow horse to symbolize Taiwan’s progress on gay rights, dancers dressed up as steamed buns, and a menu that included rumored in-jokes about Chinese leader Xi Jinping.

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6

Milei in Spanish diplomatic row

Ana Beltran/Reuters

Argentine President Javier Milei triggered a diplomatic row by calling the wife of Spain’s prime minister corrupt. In response, Madrid recalled its ambassador to Argentina. Milei’s comments came amid a rally held by European far-right leaders that served as an unofficial campaign launch ahead of European Parliament elections next month. The event, which included speeches by Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni and France’s leading opposition candidate Marine Le Pen, was marked by proposals to halt illegal migration and was used to rail against socialism, attitudes that seem to have struck a chord with voters: “Across the continent, far-right political parties look ascendant,” Politico reported.

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7

Mass rally for Mexico opposition

Hundreds of thousands of people marched in cities across Mexico in support of Xóchitl Gálvez, the leading opposition presidential candidate ahead of elections this month. The demonstration was held hours before the final debate, where security took center stage. Claudia Sheinbaum, the ruling party’s candidate who currently heads the polls, vowed to maintain a largely non-confrontational approach to security known as “hugs, not bullets,” which Gálvez has criticized. Gálvez has also hit back at the government’s attempts to weaken the division of powers in Mexico, including proposals to transform the country’s electoral body and the Supreme Court. “The return of an authoritarian regime is just around the corner,” Gálvez told the Financial Times.

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8

Texas heat wave sees energy price spike

Kaylee Greenlee Beal/Reuters

Texas energy prices briefly surged 1,600% as a forecast heat wave was expected to push air-conditioner use up. Electricity demand is expected to be around 50% higher today than on Friday, the state grid operator said, and could break the May record for energy use. Texas has also seen an influx of people from California and New York, Fortune reported, and has become a hotbed for energy-intensive bitcoin mining, pushing up baseline use. The good news is that future heat waves should affect prices less: Texas is building solar power faster than any other US state, and because solar output correlates with air conditioning energy demand — both go up on hot days — greater solar capacity should smooth out supply.

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9

Man City win leaves rivals skeptical

Manchester City won the English Premier League for the fourth consecutive time. No team in the 136-year history of the English game has managed four in a row. Last season, it became only the second English club to win the league, the main European trophy, and a domestic cup in the same year. But City, majority-owned by an Abu Dhabi state-controlled fund, faces accusations of financial misconduct — it is under investigation for 115 potential breaches of Premier League regulations, and may face severe sanctions. The team has a strong case for being considered the greatest in English history, but for many soccer fans its numerous achievements will always be marked with an asterisk.

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10

50 years of the supermarket scanner

Behance

The supermarket laser scanner turns 50 next month. A pack of Wrigley’s Juicy Fruit chewing gum sold in Troy, Ohio, on June 26, 1974, became the first object scanned and sold without the cashier having to key in a price. The unglamorous technology “would change shopping forever,” Smithsonian Magazine reported. The bar code which it scanned had been invented in 1949, adapted from Morse code, but lacked the technology to employ it: The commercial availability of microcomputers and lasers in the 1970s changed that. The original “Spectra-Physics Model A” is now in a museum, but “its descendants are all around us — foremost in the ubiquitous self-checkout register.”

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  • London’s High Court could rule on whether WikiLeaks founder Julian Assange should be extradited to the US over the mass leak of secret documents.
  • The UN nuclear watchdog publishes its annual report on illegal activities involving nuclear and other radioactive material.
  • East Timor marks its 22nd Independence Day from Indonesian rule.
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LRS

Following the script

Fans of 1990s popular literature may be pleased to learn that Nick Hornby, chronicler-in-chief of the inadequacies of the Western male, now has a Substack. Hornby’s novels Fever Pitch, About a Boy, A Long Way Down, and High Fidelity were all made into films, and he wrote four successful screenplays, including An Education, which kickstarted actress Carey Mulligan’s career. One of his first Substack posts, therefore, is about scriptwriting, and in particular: How come it takes so damn long?

I have written four movies that you may or may not have seen,” he says. “Three of the four films … took five years, from the time I started writing until their release.” The screenplay of High Fidelity, which he didn’t write, also took five years from when he sold the rights. Others are in theory still going through the process: One script is “eight or nine years old, and yet still people talk about making it.” Projects clash, plans change, six months get lost here and a year there. Even books as amazing as The Secret History sell their movie rights and then nothing happens: The planned adaptation “was to be directed by Alan J Pakula, and written by John Gregory Dunne and Joan Didion. All three of them are now dead.”

Student politics

The Biden administration has or is canceling many billions in student debt. This is popular among large parts of the media, which by coincidence or otherwise is often staffed by university graduates on relatively low pay. But, the economics writer Maxwell Tabarrok argues on Maximum Progress, almost any political ideology would consider it a bad idea.

From a perspective of equity and fairness, he argues, it will disproportionately benefit rich, white Americans: “72% of African Americans have no student debt because they never went to college.” From a perspective of fiscal conservatism, it is expensive: Hundreds of billions have been spent so far, to be financed by national debt, the interest on which is already one of the biggest items on the balance sheet. From a Marxist perspective, it is a transfer of wealth from the workers — whose labor will produce the value which is taxed to pay it — to the bourgeoisie. Its only likely value, he argues, is to Biden’s reelection campaign.

Driven to extinction

In 1980, drunk drivers caused 1,450 deaths in the UK. In 2020, there were 220. In the US, a similar story: There were 28,000 drunk-driving deaths in 1980, down to 11,654 in 2020. Partly, that’s to do with car safety improvements and improved emergency medicine. But it’s also because driving while drunk has become unacceptable.

Writing in Works in Progress, the criminologist Nick Cowen notes that this stigma is a deliberate construct. Governments around the world engaged in education campaigns about the risks; they also fined and jailed tens of thousands of people. It is, he argues, an example of criminal deterrence working: Criminals are rational actors who respond to incentives, who balance “the expected costs of crime — how likely they are to be caught, multiplied by how badly they will be punished — against the benefits of offending.”

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Curio
Transit Books

A new collection of translated short stories introduces the captivating fiction of Argentine author Ángel Bonomini to English-language readers for the first time. While feted at home, where he was an award-winning contemporary of Jorge Luis Borges, Bonomini was largely unknown to international audiences during his lifetime. In The Novices of Lerna, Jordan Landsman brings 16 of his stories to life for a new generation. “Bonomini glides vividly and lyrically into worlds where time warps, people live and die and live again, doppelgängers are plentiful, sentences disappear into amorphous paragraphs, and Buenos Aires isn’t quite the same urban sprawl that one might see in Argentina,” wrote a reviewer in Asymptote Journal.

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