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Vladimir Putin orders nuclear exercises, Xi Jinping meets with Emmanuel Macron, and diners get fruga͏‌  ͏‌  ͏‌  ͏‌  ͏‌  ͏‌ 
 
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May 6, 2024
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The World Today

  1. Russia nuclear exercises
  2. Israel-Hamas truce impasse
  3. Focus on India’s spies
  4. Chad goes to the polls
  5. UAE bets on Brazil
  6. AI upends Asian energy…
  7. …and drives gene progress
  8. How housing hits migration
  9. Frugal diners abound
  10. China’s sarcastic Labor Day

The London Review of Substacks, and a new tabletop game.

1

Putin orders nuclear exercises

Gonzalo Fuentes/Reuters

Russian President Vladimir Putin ordered tactical nuclear weapons training exercises. The Kremlin blamed remarks by unnamed Western leaders leaving open the possibility of deploying their troops to Ukraine, comments clearly targeted at French President Emmanuel Macron who repeated the suggestion last week. The US has previously said it has seen no overall change to Moscow’s nuclear posture or strategy, but maintained that it takes the threat of nuclear escalation seriously. Russia’s announcement came just minutes before Macron himself stood on the steps of Paris’ Elysee Palace to greet Chinese leader Xi Jinping, a key ally of Putin’s who is on a trip to Europe that is expected to be dominated largely by Beijing’s support for Moscow.

China had long seen France as a counterweight to the US, with Paris advocating European “strategic autonomy” from Washington: As one China analyst noted, Beijing views the country as “helping prevent a further ‘Americanisation’ of the EU’s China policy and the consolidation of a US-led bloc of countries aimed at stymying China’s economic and geopolitical rise.” But as Politico noted in its preview of the talks, “times have changed,” with Macron increasingly hawkish towards Beijing’s trade practices, and more belligerent in seeking total Russian defeat in Ukraine.

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2

Israel-Hamas talks flounder

Palestinians search for casualties under the rubble of a house destroyed in an Israeli strike in Rafah, in southern Gaza. Mohammed Salem/Reuters

Hopes for a ceasefire in Gaza appeared to flounder, with Israel’s invasion of a border town in the enclave looking imminent. Talks reached an impasse over the duration of the deal, The National reported, while the Israeli military ordered residents of Rafah to evacuate ahead of an expected ground offensive. The US dispatched its CIA chief to Qatar in a bid to salvage the negotiations, The Jerusalem Post reported, and analysts described Washington as searching for leverage: Axios said the White House last week suspended an arms shipment to the country, while a Haaretz columnist cast the prospect of International Criminal Court warrants against Israel’s leadership as a chance for the US to shift Israel’s position.

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3

Canada arrests over Sikh killing

Canadian authorities arrested three Indian nationals over the murder of a Sikh separatist, further straining ties between the two countries. Ottawa did not provide further details, but Canada’s prime minister has previously said there were “credible allegations” linking Indian intelligence to the killing. India has vociferously rejected any claims of official involvement in the murder, with its foreign minister recently dubbing Canada’s inquiry a “political compulsion.” The row comes as focus grows on India’s espionage activities: The Washington Post reported last month that top Indian spies signed off on a separate assassination attempt on a Sikh activist in the US, while Australian media said Canberra kicked Indian agents out of the country for trying to steal defense secrets.

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4

Chad election begins

Desire Danga Essigue/Reuters

Chadians began casting ballots in an election that will ostensibly replace the country’s military rulers with a civilian government — but which observers worried would do little to reverse democratic backsliding. The favorite to win the presidential election is the head of the junta ruling Chad and the son of the country’s decades-long leader, while authorities have barred many opponents from contesting the vote. Those curbs have led observers to even suggest that the lone credible challenger, the prime minister, may be a cipher who will ultimately do the regime’s bidding: One disqualified candidate called the premier “a follower, he is raising the stakes simply to ensure his place.”

For more on the world’s most interesting and important elections, check out Semafor’s Global Election Hub. →

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5

UAE bets on biofuels in Brazil

The UAE’s sovereign wealth fund outlined plans to up its bets on Brazil, part of a broader strategy by Gulf investors to diversify both in terms of geography and industry. Mubadala plans a $13.5 billion investment in biofuels in Brazil, and wants to build a stock exchange to challenge the country’s main bourse, a top official told the Financial Times. Mubadala’s move highlights how Gulf sovereign wealth funds are looking beyond previously favored low-risk investments close to home and in safe markets such as the US: “Gulf ruling elites … are leveraging their SWFs to proactively drive nation-building projects, fortify strategic international partnerships, and assume a more prominent role on the world stage,” a Middle East Institute expert wrote.

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6

Data centers fuel Asia energy demands

A nuclear plant in Ikata, Japan. Mari Saito/File Photo/Reuters

The growing demand for — and demands of — artificial intelligence is reshaping Asia’s electricity system and its clean-power progress. The energy needs of data centers in Japan alone are expected to increase tenfold by 2050 on 2021 levels, while South Korea projects to have five times as many data centers in 2029 as it did in 2022, Nikkei reported. The huge growth is upending planning: Tokyo had forecast overall electricity demand would fall by around 2030, but that now looks outdated. The shifts are spurring increased bets on what kinds of energy may soon power data centers: Uranium prices have jumped 70% in the past year with some investors expecting rising demand for nuclear power alongside them.

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7

AI helps make gene-editing proteins

Researchers created a “ChatGPT for CRISPR,” using artificial intelligence to design gene-editing proteins. CRISPR-Cas9 uses bacterial proteins to cut and reattach genetic sequences, allowing precise gene editing. But it can be a challenge finding the right protein for the job. The new system is trained on millions of existing proteins, like ChatGPT is trained on a huge corpus of text, and can then spit out new proteins appropriate for new tasks. The researchers had demonstrated that some newly designed proteins worked as expected in the laboratory, and were less prone to off-target cuts and other errors than widely used existing proteins, Nature reported.

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8

The West’s housing shortfall

John M/Wikimedia Commons

Rich countries’ upside to courting skilled migrants is being undermined by their inability to build sufficient housing, analysts said. Nations such as Australia, Canada, and the UK are leading an increasingly intense global competition for white-collar workers, hoping to both bolster economic growth and stave off demographic decline. But Bloomberg analysis showed that “a common thread” among 13 rich countries suffering from per-capita recessions was housing shortages and their associated consequences. Goldman Sachs estimates that each 100,000 additional net migrants in Australia increases nationwide rents by 1%. “A windfall is no good if public services are allowed to deteriorate anyway,” The Economist warned. “Nowhere is this more obvious than in the case of housing.”

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9

Fast-food chains feel the pinch

Yves Herman/Reuters

Years of high inflation have started to dent restaurant chains’ profits, hitting fast-food companies particularly hard. In the US, fast-food prices are 33% higher than they were in 2019, and overall traffic to such restaurants has fallen 3.5% in the first quarter of this year compared to 2023, The Wall Street Journal reported, with low-income customers most likely to avoid the eateries. “Everybody’s fighting for fewer consumers or consumers that are certainly visiting less frequently,” the global chief financial officer for McDonald’s said on a recent analyst call. The issue isn’t simply an American one: Just 41% of UK hospitality business leaders are confident about their industry’s prospects over the next year.

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10

Labor Day concerns in China

Tingshu Wang/File Photo/Reuters

Chinese workers returned to work after a five-day Labor Day break that was not all that was advertised. China requires employees to make up time off over longer public-holiday breaks by working weekend days, and this year’s Labor Day holiday required two of them. Some took to social media to reference an 18th century Chinese literary phrase, “tear down the east wall to repair the west wall” — the equivalent of “borrowing from Peter to pay Paul,” Andrew Methven of RealTime Mandarin noted on Sinica. One online user was more openly sarcastic: “People are working ’996′ schedules for 12 days straight, in exchange for a five-day holiday celebrating the advent of an ‘eight-hour’ workday,” China Digital Times reported.

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Flagging
  • The US and Philippines conduct joint amphibious military drills.
  • The Offshore Technology Conference begins in Texas.
  • The World Snooker Championship final is held in the British city of Sheffield.
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LRS

What do you value?

What are European values? To hear the continent’s leaders describe them, they include a commitment to human rights, the rule of law, democracy, and freedom of speech. Israel’s war in Gaza has laid bare the differences on the continent over how these values should be applied, though: Ireland, for example, has criticized Israel far more loudly than, say, Germany — yet both countries would be regarded as part of broader “Western Europe,” the Indian journalist Pallavi Aiyar notes in The Global Jigsaw.

The countries of Europe will increasingly have to “learn to live with differences,” Aiyar — a former China correspondent for The Hindu, now based in Spain — writes. More challenging than that, she adds, Europeans will have to “accept their place among equals, when they have become used to the false narrative of being the moral saviors of a corrupt and immoral world, in need of the freedoms that only European values can bring.”

No laughing matter

The world can sometimes feel so grim — war, disease, climate change — that laughter seems far off. Yet that’s sometimes where the best humor can be found. “Outsized emotions giving way to slapstick comedy,” the writer Lyz Lenz wrote in Men Yell at Me. “The contrast of light and dark make for a moment of chiaroscuro more dramatic than a Renaissance master could imagine.”

“I used to be so afraid that the rapture would come while I was on the toilet and Jesus would take me up into the sky and everyone left behind would see my butt,” Lenz writes. “And maybe some poop would come out and even though I was saved, I’d be humiliated.” The relationship between sorrow or fear and humor works the other way, too: Not only can one use the former to fuel the latter, but as Lenz notes, the latter can wield power over the former.

Mountains out of Moloch hills

Fighting climate change is just an array of Moloch Traps: Participants all compete for a single outcome, but by competing, make everyone — including themselves — worse off in the process. Moloch Traps are legion in other sectors and industries. No professional cyclist wanted to use performance-enhancing drugs, but many did because their rivals did, besmirching the sport in the process. Online photo-beauty filters drive more and more users to apply them, because no one wants to risk falling short of expectations of how one should look online.

As the environmental scientist Hannah Ritchie notes, however, combating temperature rises and environmental decline appears particularly prone to Moloch Traps: People overfish because if they don’t maximize their catch, they may be left with nothing; the same applies to cutting down forests or depleting water resources. “I struggled to think of one [problem] that doesn’t fall into this camp,” she wrote in Sustainability by numbers.

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Curio
Stonemaier Games

Wyrmspan, a new tabletop game set in a world of dragons, is drawing praise from reviewers. Players must build sanctuaries for the creatures, which come in all shapes and sizes, in a game that can be played by up to five people. Taking inspiration from the popular tabletop game Wingspan, this latest creation gets the thumbs up from a fan of the former. “It’s too good a game to pass over if you already love the basics of the original,” he wrote in Paste Magazine. “It also is a stunner on the table — these are some fine-lookin’ dragons.

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