• D.C.
  • BXL
  • Lagos
  • Riyadh
  • Beijing
  • SG
  • D.C.
  • BXL
  • Lagos
Semafor Logo
  • Riyadh
  • Beijing
  • SG


COP29 needs to tackle sovereign debt, the ‘elephant in the room’ of climate finance.͏‌  ͏‌  ͏‌  ͏‌  ͏‌  ͏‌ 
 
cloudy Washington, DC
cloudy Baku
cloudy Austin
rotating globe
April 24, 2024
semafor

Net Zero

net zero
Sign up for our free email briefings
 
Hotspots
  1. Power plant rules
  2. EVs steam ahead
  3. Climate debt crisis
  4. Tesla’s brutal quarter
  5. Drilling down on minerals

How to reboot Earth Day, and boom times for oil rig companies.

PostEmail
1

Power plant rules

The US Environmental Protection Agency is expected this week to finalize one of the Biden administration’s biggest climate regulations, a new set of restrictions on emissions from coal- and gas-fired power plants. The regulations — an updated version of rules that Barack Obama pursued and saw overturned by the Supreme Court — are likely to be weaker than what climate advocates have hoped for, since they will exempt existing gas plants and instead focus on existing coal plants and new gas plants. The rules may also be rolled out more slowly than originally planned, a move to parry the inevitable barrage of lawsuits from business groups and Republican state officials. One open question is whether the EPA will allow plant operators to switch to hydrogen as a lower-carbon alternative, or force them to choose between either adopting carbon capture or shutting down.

PostEmail
2

EVs steam ahead

 
Diego Mendoza
Diego Mendoza
 

Electric vehicle sales are likely to continue growing despite recent sales struggles, largely thanks to surging demand in China, the International Energy Agency forecast.

More than one in five cars in the US and Europe will be electric by 2030 — and one in three in China, according to the IEA. In the short-term, however, huge challenges remain. For one, Western and Japanese incumbents face strong pressure from Chinese rivals in the EV market, while US giants like Tesla are grappling with sagging sales (see Item 4 for more on that).

American consumers, meanwhile, are reluctant to buy EVs because the cars’ resale prices are still much lower than gas-powered vehicles. And as we reported recently, brewing concerns in China — the world’s fastest growing EV market — over the limits of charging infrastructure demonstrate a concern that is likely to grow among EV buyers.

PostEmail
3

The World Bank’s ‘elephant in the room’

 
Tim McDonnell
Tim McDonnell
 

The annual meetings of the World Bank and International Monetary Fund in Washington, DC, last week yielded disappointingly little progress on climate finance, climate diplomats warned, opening what is likely to be a contentious buildup to a major showdown at the COP29 summit in November.

Headlines focused on the US, Japan, and several European countries collectively contributing an additional $11 billion to the World Bank’s lending capacity, and how that fell far short of the estimated $1 trillion per year that developing countries need to adapt to climate change. But an even bigger issue looms, one which received even less attention from rich countries, and which is in many ways more vexing: Developing countries face a crippling mountain of debt that — regardless of how much their richer peers hand over — will derail any efforts to combat climate change.

And although leaders like Barbados Prime Minister Mia Mottley have spent the last several years articulating detailed solutions, and despite World Bank President Ajay Banga having expressed much more eagerness to address climate change than his predecessor, last week’s meeting closed without any concrete steps.

“You haven’t seen real transformation of the institutions,” Majid Al Suwaidi, a longtime United Arab Emirates climate diplomat who worked as director-general of last year’s COP28, told me. “It is a slow process by nature, but the problem is, we don’t have that time.”

PostEmail
4

Tesla’s brutal quarter

-55%

Fall in Tesla’s profits in the first quarter of this year compared to the same period last year. The decline also represents the company’s steepest dropoff in profits between consecutive quarters since 2012, and comes as Tesla engages in an escalating price war with its global competitors, especially China’s BYD. Tesla had already announced plans last week to lay off 10% of its workforce, including its newly-built US marketing division. Yet the company’s share price was buoyed by a promise from CEO Elon Musk to speed up production of new low-cost EV models. Tesla shareholders will get a chance to voice their confidence in Musk at the company annual meeting in June, where Musk plans to seek a big boost to his pay package.

PostEmail
5

Drilling down on minerals

 
Prashant Rao
Prashant Rao
 
View of the Cobre Panama mine. Aris Martinez/Reuters

A major Washington, DC, think tank is upping its focus on minerals. The Center for Strategic and International Studies’ Project on Critical Minerals Security will have three priorities, its new director Gracelin Baskaran said in an interview: A focus on opportunities for U.S. commercial diplomacy, providing support and analysis for policy makers, and carrying out research on minerals recycling and the circular economy. Baskaran said she hopes to explore new foreign policy and economic strategies, including using combinations of trade deals, financial instruments, and technical support on issues such as mapping potentially minerally rich areas to win over prospective allies. The US’ “comparative advantage is not in mining,” she said. “But we have significant research and development capacity.” CSIS, meanwhile, views “minerals security as a national security issue, not just an economic or energy issue,” she added.

PostEmail
Power Plays

New Energy

Fossil Fuels

Politics & Policy

PostEmail
Correction

Last week’s One Good Text incorrectly identified Manish Bapna as president of the Natural Resources Defense Council. In fact, he was commenting on Robert Kennedy’s presidential campaign in his capacity as president and CEO of the NRDC Action Fund. I’m sorry for the mixup!

PostEmail
One Good Text

Harjeet Singh, global engagement director for the Fossil Fuel Non-Proliferation Treaty Initiative. Earth Day was on Monday.

PostEmail
Hot on Semafor
  • A bipartisan pair aims to solve America’s happiness problem.
  • US prepares to sanction China over its support for Russian war effort.
  • Africa’s most valuable startup is getting ready for an IPO.
PostEmail