Africa

1. AGOA is effectively dead
2. Lesotho reeling after tariffs
3. S.Africa’s auto industry
4. Pretoria’s coalition in jeopardy
5. African basketball eyes franchise
6. AI threatens outsourcing
7. Person of interest
8. Weekend Reads

The health benefits of a traditional northern Tanzanian diet.

AGOA is dead, long live AGOA! This seems to be the reaction from Africa watchers in Washington to US President Donald Trump’s whirlwind of tariffs.

On the one hand, there’s a lot of talk about how the Africa Growth and Opportunities Act has been great for helping sub-Saharan African countries access the world’s biggest market. On the other, there’s a strong sense that AGOA has never quite delivered on its promise of boosting African exports in a meaningful and sustainable way.

In fact, with or without AGOA, the US is not a key export market for the vast majority of African countries, so most are insulated from the worst impact of this upheaval. The US imported $39 billion of goods in 2024 from Africa, “which is roughly what it imports from Mexico or Canada in just over a month,” analysts at Renaissance Capital noted.

But as the saying goes, you’ll miss it when it’s gone. Not so much just the $10 billion of AGOA trade, which was less than 15% of overall US-Africa trade in 2023, but more so what AGOA had come to represent as the flagship US economic policy on the continent. As things stand now, in less than three months, for better or for worse, the US has ripped away the heart of its long-term engagement in Africa by shutting down USAID and upending AGOA. There’s also an expectation it will shutter US-Africa Command (Africom).

There are many on both sides of these debates who see this moment as a true opportunity to reset the US-Africa relationship. One way or another, we’re set to find out what resetting really means.

Trump tariffs ‘kill’ AGOA

Washington’s flagship economic policy for Africa was effectively killed after US President Donald Trump this week reset the global trading order, Africa watchers on Capitol Hill told Semafor.

The African Growth and Opportunity Act, the preferential trade program which has given sub-Saharan African countries tariff-free exports to the US since 2000, is set to expire this September if Congress does not renew it. Trump wants countries to negotiate their trade terms on a bilateral basis, doing away with the multilateralism and free trade pacts like AGOA represent.

But analysts said African countries would need to work together to mitigate the worst impacts of the reset. “There is only one way forward: Coordinate and strategize together first,” said Hannah Ryder, founder of Development Reimagined, a consultancy.

As one Hill staffer told Semafor, AGOA’s chances of renewal are now “narrow.” Another Congressional aide said: “While it’s not dead, there are few options to move it forward. Any business planning on its continuation now must assume that the authority will lapse.”

Lesotho’s next move

Perhaps US President Donald Trump misspoke last month when he mentioned Lesotho in his speech to Congress, declaring the mountainous kingdom a country “no one has heard of.” But after Trump on Wednesday slapped 50% tariffs on Lesotho’s US exports, many Basotho might have preferred he really had never heard of them.

Lesotho’s tiny economy has been one of the mini-success stories of AGOA: The country has built a textiles sector used by famous brands such as Wrangler and Levi jeans, as well as Trump golf gear. It also exports car parts and diamonds to the US. Altogether it did $237 million in exports to the US — equivalent to more than 10% of its GDP. This has left a huge trade deficit in Lesotho’s favor since it doesn’t import anywhere near as much from the US. It is now scrambling to get an envoy over to Washington to “plead our case,” Trade Minister Mokhethi Shelile told reporters. “My biggest concern was the immediate closure of factories and job losses,” he said.

— Yinka

S. Africa’s autos face bumpy ride

The new US tariffs look set to hit South Africa hard, with the automobile industry — the country’s fifth-largest export sector, responsible for around 300,000 jobs — particularly vulnerable. Washington imposed a 30% levy on goods imported from South Africa as part of “Liberation Day” tariffs, on top of 25% duties on all vehicles and car parts imported into the US, which took effect on Thursday.

The US is, in monetary terms, the second-largest export market for South African cars: Sales of vehicles and auto parts to the US are worth more than $2 billion a year to Pretoria, last year accounting for 64% of South Africa’s exports made under the seemingly doomed AGOA preferential trade program, under which they were imported duty-free into the US.

Pretoria’s coalition is in jeopardy

South Africa’s government is teetering on the brink of collapse after the Democratic Alliance voted against the budget. The fiscal framework passed in a tight 194-182 vote after the ANC overcame the opposition of its biggest coalition partner by securing support from smaller parties in the 10-party Government of National Unity.

The Democratic Alliance immediately mounted a legal challenge and its chair, Helen Zille, said the party was considering its future in the coalition. “The ANC does not want to share power,” she told Newzroom Afrika.

Zille’s comments followed the circulation of a purportedly leaked recording of President Cyril Ramaphosa in which he said the DA had “locked itself into an unenviable position” and questioned its future in the government.

Hon. John Mbadi Ngongó, Cabinet Secretary for the National Treasury & Economic Planning, Kenya, will join top global leaders at Semafor’s 2025 World Economy Summit, taking place Apr. 23 — 25, 2025, in Washington DC. As the first major gathering since the new US administration took office, the summit will feature on-the-record discussions with 100+ CEOs.

Bringing together leaders from both the public and private sectors — including congressional leaders and global finance ministers — the three-day summit will explore the forces shaping the global economy and geopolitics. Across twelve sessions, it will foster transformative, news-making conversations on how the world’s decision-makers are tackling economic growth in increasingly uncertain times.

April 23-25 | Washington, DC | Learn More

African basketball eyes franchise model

African basketball organizations are pitching financial backers in preparation for a franchise bidding process in the NBA-owned Basketball Africa League, aiming to award an initial set of franchises by year-end, investors and executives told Semafor.

Bid fees will likely vary by market, but estimates could go up to tens of millions of dollars, according to two industry sources. The franchise model would bring BAL in line with the NBA and would effectively close off the league to existing teams who currently qualify to play in the championship each year. But the bet is franchises make it easier to forecast annual revenue and boost income for the league and team owners, potential investors said.

AI threatens outsourcing market

Artificial intelligence threatens to shrink Africa’s labor-outsourcing market, according to a new report. At least 40% of tasks currently performed by outsourcing agencies across Africa could be automated by 2030, the report by Caribou Digital, Genesis Analytics, and the Mastercard Foundation said. Customer experience roles, which account for nearly half of outsourcing roles, are most at risk, followed by finance and accounting tasks, the study found. Jobs held by women were most vulnerable, it noted.

Africa’s business outsourcing market is still projected to generate $35 billion by 2028 compared to about $17 billion in 2022. Maintaining that market will require immediate investment, “especially in rural infrastructure, co-working hubs, and access to laptops,” Charlene Migwe-Kagume, a director at Caribou, told Semafor. She said funding in those areas was needed “so that young people and women can get a fair shot at these jobs.”

— Alexander Onukwue

Person of Interest: Bassirou Diomaye Faye

Bassirou Diomaye Faye, a former tax inspector who went from prison to president-elect of Senegal in 10 days, this week marked a year since his inauguration.

The 45-year-old has shaken up the status quo since becoming Africa’s youngest democratically-elected president last year. Nicknamed “Mr Clean” on account of his anti-corruption campaign, he swiftly launched an audit of the country’s finances.

In September, Faye called for a new world order that reflects changing demographics and gives “more weight” to Africa. And two months later he called a snap election to drive change in an opposition-dominated Parliament — a vote that reinforced the country’s reputation for having strong democratic institutions. Faye’s overwhelming win was seen as “a strong mandate to implement [his] radical agenda of economic and social reform,” the BBC wrote at the time, an agenda voters are watching ever more closely.

Weekend Reads

• Prestigious British schools are opening campuses in Nigeria, appealing to parents drawn to the UK curriculum but still keen to preserve their children’s cultural identity. Charterhouse launched a primary school in Lagos last year and Rugby School is due to offer secondary education in the country from September. Other elite schools including Harrow are exploring opportunities, the BBC reported. Rising UK tuition fees and a weakening naira make local options attractive.
• A Japanese entrepreneur has built Ethiopia’s fastest-growing EV maker. Two-wheelers made by Dodai, a startup launched by Yuma Sasaki less than a year ago, have become the country’s top transport choice for businesses that require deliveries. Sasaki, who previously worked at Uber in Japan, chose Japanese backers for their long-term perspective, reported Rest of World. “Unless you are a long-term investor, you won’t be happy,” he told the outlet, citing regional challenges such as political stability and supply chain infrastructure.
• South Africa’s distinctive kwaito music — a fusion of rap, R&B, and house — is the enduring sound of a post-apartheid generation, wrote Thembi Ngubo in Africa Is a Country. Kwaito began as a “radical declaration of agency and self-determination” and remains a strong influence on the country’s musical landscape today, she said. Contemporary artists such as Focalistic, DBN Gogo, and Felo Le Tee draw on this legacy, “bridging past and present” on the dancefloor.
• Beijing is dealing with a huge PR challenge in Zambia after an acidic waste spill from a Chinese-owned copper mine contaminated the country’s most important waterway, wrote James Palmer in Foreign Policy. Nearly two thirds of Zambians depend on the Kafue River in some fashion and the water supply to 700,000 people in Kitwe city was impacted after the spill. The incident is “likely to become a new rallying point for anti-Chinese sentiment not only in Zambia, but also throughout Africa,” he said.
• A new exhibition at the Pompidou Center in Paris explores the influence of Black artists on the French capital from the 1950s to 2000. Black Paris offers “long overdue recognition” to 150 mostly unknown artists of African descent, wrote art historian Philippe Dagen in Le Monde. Nearly 400 artworks are on display until June 30. The vast exhibition highlights how Paris became a “haven” for creatives from the continent as well as the diaspora in the US, Caribbean, and South America, The Guardian noted.

Business & Macro

🇰🇪 Kenya raised $549 million from auctions of three treasury bonds this week, exceeding its target.

🇿🇦 Jameel, a Saudi Arabian vehicle distributor, plans to begin sales of SUVs and electric cars by China-owned automaker Changan in South Africa from the fourth quarter of this year with a $27 million investment.

Climate & Energy

🌍 Google has made its AI-powered weather forecasting feature available in Africa. The service uses satellite data and ground observations.

🇳🇬 Nigerian mass transit startup Shuttlers added 20 buses powered by compressed natural gas to its Lagos fleet in the first quarter, part of a transition to more “climate friendly” operations.

🇰🇪 Kenya’s electricity exports rose 80% to 8.1 million kilowatt hours between last December and January 2025. It follows the start of cross-border electricity trade between Kenya and Tanzania this year.

Geopolitics & Policy

🇨🇩 The US reviewed DR Congo’s proposal for a minerals agreement between both countries and has come up with “a path forward,” President Donald Trump’s new Africa envoy Massad Boulos said after meeting the Congolese president.

🇺🇬 🇸🇸 Ugandan President Yoweri Museveni is on a visit to South Sudan for talks with embattled leader Salva Kiir, as tensions in the country raise the prospects of a new civil war.

Tech & Deals

🇨🇲 A Cameroonian court ordered the unfreezing of bank accounts belonging to pan-African telco MTN Group. The accounts were frozen in 2022 over a conflict between Cameroon’s richest man Ahmadou Baba Danpullo and South Africa’s First National Bank.

🇪🇹 Meta can be sued in Kenya in a $2 billion case over the alleged use of Facebook to fuel hate speech and ethnic violence in Ethiopia, a Kenyan court ruled.

The traditional diet of northern Tanzania’s Chagga people offers a striking range of health benefits, according to new research. The ethnic group, which lives on the slopes of Mount Kilimanjaro, has a mostly plant-based diet that features ingredients such as plantain, beans, and millet. Their cuisine, with its emphasis on grains and fermented foods, has anti-inflammatory benefits, according to the study published in the journal Nature Medicine. Researchers assessed 77 healthy men from urban and rural parts of northern Tanzania. The study found that adopting the traditional Chagga diet for just two weeks improved the health of participants, while those who switched to a Western diet with processed foods saw a decline in health. “African heritage diets hold untapped potential for promoting health,” Dr Quirijn de Mast, one of the study’s authors, told the Times of London.