Africa

1. S. Africa’s budget debacle
2. Somaliland dismisses offer
3. Battle for productivity
4. Airtel Africa lands loan
5. Mozambique gas deal
6. Global South wants AI stake
7. Digital payments boom
8. The Week Ahead

The genomics company aiming to build the largest cancer database in Africa.

South Africa braced for budget

Political parties in South Africa’s coalition government remain locked in budget talks, days before a new version of the contentious spending plan is to be presented to lawmakers.

The impasse over the budget in Africa’s most industrialized economy is the sternest test faced by the coalition government since it was formed nine months ago.

In an unprecedented move, the Feb. 19 budget presentation was postponed because of a disagreement over a proposed VAT hike. Finance Minister Enoch Godongwana eventually put the budget forward this month without the support of the Democratic Alliance, the coalition’s second-biggest party. Parliament will discuss Godongwana’s proposal on Apr. 2, when the headline spending and revenue figures are voted on.

“We remain confident that… we can develop a shared approach to unlock inclusive growth, job creation and a secure fiscal future, now,” President Cyril Ramaphosa posted on X late on Sunday. The DA sees a “good chance” of agreeing the spending plan this week, Bloomberg quoted a party spokesman as saying. The rand fell late last week on concerns around the budget and US tariffs.

Somaliland dismisses US ports plan

Somalia’s breakaway region of Somaliland dismissed a plan by Mogadishu to hand the US control of two ports on the Gulf of Aden as “desperate and misguided.” The comments by Somaliland’s Foreign Minister Abdirahman Dahir Adan, posted on X, came shortly after Semafor first reported the Somali government’s offer to Washington on Friday. Mogadishu does not control the assets it offered and the move was widely seen as an attempt by the government to prevent Washington from recognizing breakaway regions in the troubled region. As Semafor also first reported in December, the Trump administration is considering recognizing Somaliland in order to counter Chinese presence in the Horn of Africa. Adan said on X that there was “nothing [Mogadishu] can do to stop the upcoming recognition of Somaliland.”

Africa’s productivity dilemma

The only guarantee of improving living standards in Africa is a sustained rise in worker productivity, an author and veteran journalist argues in a new column for Semafor.

In his analysis, Joël Té-Léssia Assoko compares Côte d’Ivoire with Cameroon: The former’s GDP lead over the latter grew from $7 billion in 2010 to $30 billion in 2023 on the back of surging manufacturing output. The poverty rate — defined as living on less than $2.15 a day — fell from 33% to 10% in Côte d’Ivoire but sits at 23% in Cameroon, 2.7 percentage points lower than a decade ago.

The author of Beyond Sankara: A Reflection on African Economies warns that the Sahel region is in particular danger of backsliding due to a “resurgence of ‘Captainomics’... the belief that bluster, short-term fixes, and coercion by strongmen can reshape economic reality.”

Airtel Africa lands $100 million loan

The World Bank’s International Finance Corporation (IFC) is providing telecom operator Airtel Africa with a $100 million loan to fund capital projects and debt refinancing for the company’s subsidiaries in Kenya and Rwanda.

Airtel is one of sub-Saharan Africa’s largest mobile network operators with around 150 million customers across voice and data services in 14 countries. The IFC has previously provided funding in local currencies to help Airtel Africa address challenges in markets “where the banking landscape and access to local funding remains largely underdeveloped.”

Mobile services in East Africa are the second-largest contributor to Airtel Africa’s earnings, behind Nigeria. The $100 million loan is offered under similar terms to previous loans by the IFC, the lender said, the most recent being a $200 million facility last year aimed at increasing the company’s offering of high-speed mobile internet.

— Alexander Onukwue

Abu Dhabi invests in Mozambique gas

XRG, the international investment arm of Abu Dhabi National Oil Co., has acquired a 10% stake in a liquefied natural gas project in Mozambique, expanding its LNG portfolio, which includes assets in Azerbaijan, Egypt, and the US.

Mozambique discovered substantial gas reserves in the deepwater Rovuma Basin in 2010 and began exporting fuel last year. XRG’s acquisition is in the Area 4 concession, which is being developed by ExxonMobil and Eni.

Mozambique has attracted some of the largest energy investments in Africa. Another LNG project — stalled since 2021 due to militant attacks — is likely to resume soon after the Trump administration approved a $4.7 billion loan from the US Export-Import Bank. Fossil fuel exports are expected to transform the economy of one of southern Africa’s poorest nations.

Global South wants say on AI policy

The Global South should have a stronger voice in global digital policymaking, the head of the Riyadh-based Digital Cooperation Organization said in an interview.

The group — whose 16 members include Djibouti, Ghana, Nigeria, Rwanda, and The Gambia — is currently drafting an AI treaty that explores matters including infrastructure, capacity-building, and practical applications. “We still don’t have harmonized policies or regulations when it comes to tech… There is nobody on a global level that is actually providing that,” Secretary-General Deemah AlYahya told Semafor, adding that discussions have already begun with the Council of Europe and the African Union to expand the initiative.

A booming digital payments economy

The size of Africa’s digital payments economy by 2030, according to a new report. Progress in internet penetration and financial inclusion are the two big drivers: The former is expected to grow at a compound annual rate of 20% and the latter by 6% per year, Genesis Analytics projected in a report commissioned by Mastercard. The global payments processor said scaling remittances and “seamless cross-border transactions” will be key to its strategy of expanding digital payments. Last year sub-Saharan Africa received an estimated $56 billion from overseas migrants, the fourth successive year of increases and a record peak, according to the World Bank.

The Week Ahead

• Apr. 2: Candidates for the Africa regional director role at the WHO make their case for the job in a virtual forum.
• Apr. 2: First anniversary of Bassirou Diomaye Faye’s presidency in Senegal.
• Apr. 3-4: The inaugural Global AI Summit on Africa takes place in Kigali.
• Apr. 4: Tanzania’s central bank announces its interest rate decision.

Business & Macro

🌍 The junta-ruled states of Burkina Faso, Mali, and Niger agreed to impose a 0.5% levy on imports into their countries from elsewhere, with the exception of humanitarian aid.

🇹🇿 🇰🇪 Tanzania imposed new taxes on imports of eggs, milk, and confectioneries from Kenya, the latest import restriction that Kenyan manufacturers say led to a $32 million decline in their export revenues last year.

🇬🇭 Ghana’s Parliament repealed a 2022 law that imposed a 1% tax on mobile money transactions.

Climate & Energy

🇰🇪 The share of geothermal energy in Kenya’s energy mix fell to less than 40% in the second half of 2024 from nearly 45% in the previous year following a drop in production.

Geopolitics & Policy

🇿🇼 Zimbabwe’s President Emmerson Mnangagwa replaced his army and police chiefs as members of his party called for protests to pressure him to step down.

🇳🇪 Niger withdrew from the Multinational Joint Task Force, a regional anti-terrorism security partnership that includes Cameroon, Chad, and Nigeria.

🇸🇸 South Sudan’s First Vice President Riek Machar was placed under house arrest after being accused of encouraging his supporters to stir up a rebellion and prevent elections taking place.

Tech & Deals

🇿🇦 South Africa’s competition tribunal said it blocked a $760 million deal that would have seen the country’s largest telecom operator Vodacom own 30% of fibre provider Maziv because it wasn’t in the public interest.

🇺🇬 Uganda’s government proposed a new law to exempt startups founded by locals from paying taxes in their first three years of operation.

A new project aims to build the largest cancer database in Africa. The Africa Cancer Atlas, set up by a genomics research company in Ghana, seeks to counter a yawning research gap: Less than 2% of human genomes analyzed so far have been those of Africans. The genetic data of around 7,500 patients from the continent will be free to African researchers. The team behind the center told The Guardian it hopes the insights will fuel drug discoveries tailored to the regional population and beyond. Swiss drugmaker Roche last month signed up as a founding partner, injecting funding and technical support.

Glenn Fogel joined the online travel startup Priceline.com 25 years ago this month, just days before the dot-com crash. That has given him some perspective, he told Andrew Edgecliffe-Johnson, as travel firms’ stocks fall amid concerns over weakening US consumer confidence and foreign tourists being deterred by an “America First” administration.

Asked whether he thinks this is the toughest time to run a company, the CEO of Booking Holdings shoots back: “Which decade would you prefer to have lived in that was so much better?”

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— Alexis Akwagyiram, Preeti Jha, Alexander Onukwue, and Yinka Adegoke.