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Britain and France rush to draw up a Ukraine peace plan with US support in doubt, US tariffs on Cana͏‌  ͏‌  ͏‌  ͏‌  ͏‌  ͏‌ 
 
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cloudy Kinshasa
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March 3, 2025
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The World Today

  1. Europe rushes to back Kyiv
  2. US tariffs set to begin
  3. DRC seeks Rwanda talks
  4. Guyana oil tensions rise
  5. Iranian minister impeached
  6. People flee UK…
  7. … and head to Spain
  8. Indies win at the Oscars
  9. HK bubble tea listing
  10. Rappers’ drinks empires

The London Review of Substacks, and recommending a collection of short stories by a controversial Japanese great.

1

UK, France ready Ukraine plan

European leaders.
NTB/Javad Parsa/via Reuters

France and the UK rushed to draw up a peace plan for Ukraine involving European troops, after a disastrous Oval Office meeting threw US support for Kyiv into doubt. The extent of their progress was unclear: France’s president said they would propose a partial one-month ceasefire, but a British minister disputed that suggestion. Their efforts come with European nations pledging to ramp up defense spending to fill a gap expected to be left by the US in light of the Trump administration’s striking pivot toward Russia: The US defense secretary has ceased all offensive cyber operations against Moscow, with the Kremlin’s spokesman saying over the weekend that Washington’s shift “largely aligns with our vision.”

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2

US tariffs set for Canada, Mexico

A chart comparing the US’ trade with Mexico, Canada, and China

US tariffs on Canada and Mexico were set to take effect Tuesday, though whether at the planned 25% level was unclear. US Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick said the White House has not yet finalized the details of penalties to be placed on the country’s two biggest trading partners. Economists have warned that the tariffs could accelerate inflation in the US, undermining a key campaign pledge by US President Donald Trump. Food could get particularly costly: The US has never imported as much food as it does now, with avocados from Mexico representing the largest imported commodity.

For more on Trump’s trade war, subscribe to Semafor’s daily US politics newsletter. →

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3

DRC rules out talks with rebels

M23 militiamen
M23 militiamen. Arlette Bashizi/Reuters

The Democratic Republic of Congo refused to negotiate with the rebel alliance that has taken control of swaths of the country, sparking fears of a worsening humanitarian crisis. Kinshasa said it would instead seek dialogue directly with Rwanda, which the DRC says funds the M23 militia that leads the rebels, a claim Kigali rejects. The conflict over the mineral-rich eastern DRC has exposed its army’s weakness: Despite decades of fighting experience, it has been incapable of halting the rebels’ advance, hamstrung by rampant corruption, extortion, and abuse. “The army really operates like an armed group,” an expert told The New York Times.

For more from the continent, subscribe to Semafor’s Africa newsletter. →

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4

Venezuela menaces Guyana

A chart comparing Venezuela and Guyana’s oil output

Guyana said a Venezuelan coast guard patrol entered its territorial waters and approached a massive offshore oil deposit that Caracas claims as its own. The neighbors have been engaged in a dispute over the oil-rich Essequibo region — internationally recognized as part of Guyana, which has made oil deposits a centerpiece of its economic growth plans. Exxon Mobil and other oil majors also operate there. Caracas has ramped up its military presence in the area: Venezuela is desperate to increase its oil output, which has fallen by more than 60% in the past decade thanks to international sanctions.

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5

Iran economy teeters

Iran’s president
Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian. Majid Asgaripour/WANA via Reuters

Iranian lawmakers impeached the country’s finance minister, blaming him for skyrocketing inflation and a plummeting currency. The move is a blow to Iran’s moderate president, who was open to negotiations with the US over easing sanctions in exchange for limits on Tehran’s nuclear program, but was overruled by Iran’s supreme leader. Washington has shown no interest in such talks, with the Trump administration aiming to cripple Iran’s economy further while ferrying weapons to Israel. Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said the arms would be used to “finish the job against Iran’s terror axis,” with Tehran’s regional proxies hobbled by Israeli attacks in recent months. Iran is “historically weak,” a Eurasia Group analyst noted, and any “concessions will need to come soon.”

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6

Britons flee economic malaise

A chart comparing UK GDP per capita as a percentage of the EU’s

A record number of UK citizens applied for Irish passports in 2024, as Britons seek “backdoor” access to the European Union. Britain is in an economic malaise, and post-Brexit restrictions have made travel and work within the EU difficult for British passport holders. Many Britons are also keen on buying holiday or retirement homes on the continent, but European countries are increasingly restricting that option, with Spain introducing a 100% tax on non-EU property buyers and Portugal scrapping easy routes to citizenship for wealthy foreigners, the Financial Times reported. Middle-class Britons are also migrating to the United Arab Emirates in large numbers, Arabian Business said.

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7

Spain courts migrants

A chart showing Spain’s net migration

Spain is drawing huge numbers of educated immigrants, lured by a low cost of living as well as a government that has made inward migration a centerpiece policy. Madrid has become home to a growing group of “Trump regime refugees,” with the number of Americans up 35% since 2018 at 10,000. The numbers from elsewhere are even more striking, with Madrid now boasting upward of a million Latin Americans, 12 times as many as a quarter-century ago. Spain’s government has sought to present an “empathetic and positive view of migration,” Le Monde noted, though how long it can do so is debated: 70% of Spaniards think inbound migration is too high.

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8

Indies dominate Oscars

The cast of Anora
The cast of Anora. Carlos Barria/Reuters

Anora, a low-budget drama about a sex worker, swept the Oscars with five awards, including best picture, best director, and best actress. It was a good year for indies, Axios noted, with gongs for A Real Pain and Flow. The Hollywood journalist Matt Belloni told Semafor’s Mixed Signals that the Oscars have become more artsy: After a backlash over a lack of diversity, the Academy expanded to include more foreign members, who are often “actively anti-Hollywood,” eroding the ability of giant blockbusters like Titanic to take the top prizes. It may be ironic that the best actor award went to Adrien Brody for The Brutalist, about a pioneer of a style beloved of architects but disliked by the actual public.

Listen to the latest episode of Mixed Signals on your favorite podcast platform. →

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9

China’s buoyant bubble tea IPO

A Mixue shop.
Florence Lo/Reuters

A low-cost bubble tea chain saw its shares soar on its stock market debut in Hong Kong, a sign of the city’s listings revival and Chinese consumers’ cost-consciousness. Mixue, which sells drinks for under $1 — less than half the cost of most rivals’ — raised $444 million. Hong Kong is experiencing a rush of listings as investors flee both the mainland China’s sluggish economy and growing US trade war fears: Battery maker CATL is leading an expected $20 billion flurry this year. The bubble tea industry has exploded in recent years, but Mixue is utterly dominant, despite its boba being only “so-so,” one tea buyer told the Financial Times, as China’s consumers “skimp and save.”

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10

Rappers become drinks magnates

A row of bottles.
Creative Commons

Rappers and musicians increasingly own the drinks brands they sing about. Jay-Z and Lil’ Kim used to rap about Cristal champagne, while Kanye West, Tupac, and Drake all mentioned Hennessy brandy. But Jay-Z has stopped giving out free advertising and promotes his own champagne, cognac, and vodka brands, his wife Beyoncé launched a whiskey, and Snoop Dogg and Dr. Dre “literally sell Gin & Juice,” having once rapped about it, Taste magazine noted. It is a story of “artists… recognizing, then taking ownership of their tremendous financial might,” as young fans look to them to see “how to dress, what to eat, where to drink, what to drink, how to live.”

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Flagging
  • The Mobile World Congress, a major telecoms and technology summit, opens in Barcelona.
  • Former Barclays CEO Jes Staley appeals a UK fine for allegedly misleading regulators about his relationship with Jeffrey Epstein.
  • Cities across Europe mark Rose Monday, part of the week preceding the Christian period of Lent.
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LRS
The London Review of Substacks

Prawn sacrifice

Which are the most commonly farmed animals in the world? You might think chickens, but you would be wrong: There are 33 billion chickens, 1.55 billion cattle, but 230 billion shrimp. They make up 51% of all agricultural animals: Shrimp farming “dwarfs other forms of animal agriculture by sheer numbers,” writes Andrés Jiménez Zorrilla in Asterisk. And shrimp are harvested at a little over six months of age: The rapid turnover means that each year about 440 billion shrimps die for human consumption.

Zorilla, a former finance worker, quit his job to work on shrimp welfare. “When I tell anyone this,” he says, “they usually think I’ve lost my mind.” But evidence suggests that crustaceans feel pain, and shrimp farms are staggeringly unpleasant: Breeding shrimp are blinded, while the rest are kept in densities of up to 1,000 per square meter, often before being slowly asphyxiated. Zorilla is promoting more humane methods, such as electrical stunning and improved conditions, which could reduce the amount of animal suffering needed to feed humanity.

Music to my ears

New York City’s congestion charges — currently in the Trump administration’s crosshairs — appear to be reducing traffic, and pushing people towards public transport. That’s what they were intended to do. But there’s a problem: NYC’s public transport system seems to be getting worse, says the politics writer Jeff Maurer. “I remember being shocked in 2012 when I got on the C train late at night and found a (frankly quite impressive) turd,” he writes. “These days, I’d just say ‘Whoops — I got the turd car’ and move down.”

But the biggest problem, he argues, is people playing music without headphones. Maurer was amazed to learn that this is already illegal, just not enforced. Which is bad, he says, because it degrades public spaces and encourages vigilantism. The counterargument is that “you don’t want to ruin someone’s life over a minor infraction, [but] does a $25 fine ruin someone’s life?” Some people may not be able to pay, but “If all punishment is disallowed, then rules don’t matter, which leads to public spaces being unusable, which hurts poor people most of all.” He asks the really big question: Should people who play their music out loud “receive fines, or be slowly tortured to death?”

Fight or flight

China’s air force is the second largest in the world, behind that of the US. And over the last 20 years, it has evolved from an outdated Soviet-style force using clones of old Russian planes into “a modern air power capable of projecting strength beyond its borders,” writes the defense analyst Jonathon Kitson. China is the only country other than the US capable of producing large numbers of fifth-generation fighters — its J-20 is comparable in capabilities to the F-35 — and is closing the gap thanks to years of innovation and industrial espionage.

The People’s Liberation Army Air Force is crucial to China’s plans to invade Taiwan, but behind the headline figures of combat aircraft it has some weaknesses, Kitson argues. Its training facilities are weak, lacking simulators, and pilots must spend time on political indoctrination. Corruption is rife: Several senior officers have been removed over bribes and other misconduct. And it lacks support units, such as radar aircraft. If the US and China went to war, “the PLAAF would need to be far better equipped than it is today” for Beijing to be confident.

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Semafor Recommends
A recommends illustration.

Voices of the Fallen Heroes: And Other Stories by Yukio Mishima. This newly translated collection of the great and controversial Japanese novelist’s short stories — published on what would have been his 100th birthday — demonstrates “the prodigious range of the author’s talent,” and dwells on his “favorite themes of beauty, death and sex.” Mishima died by ritual suicide in 1970 after becoming an ultra-nationalist and leading an attempted coup. Buy Voices of the Fallen Heroes: And Other Stories from your local bookstore.

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Semafor Spotlight
Carl Court/Reuters

US President Donald Trump got elected promising relief for voters’ pocketbooks, but he’s already running into harsh economic reality, Semafor’s Eleanor Mueller, Burgess Everett, and Shelby Talcott reported.

The tariff regimen has to be right, or it’s going to be inflationary,” Sen. Thom Tillis, R-N.C., who faces a tough 2026 reelection race, warned. Congressional Republicans are still a long way from openly critiquing the president, but the fact there’s any daylight just five weeks in may betray deeper fault lines to come.

To read what the White House is reading, subscribe to Semafor Principals. →

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