Gulf

1. ADNOC sells LNG to India…
2. …and deploys AI robots
3. Mideast diplomacy in Riyadh
4. Israel boycott hits US brands
5. Saudi’s $1 trillion spree

Qatari royals spar over $10 million diamond.

ADNOC inks $7B+ gas deal with India

ADNOC Gas has secured a long-term role to help meet India’s growing demand for liquefied natural gas. The Abu Dhabi-based producer signed a 14-year deal with Indian Oil Corp. for up to 1.2 million tons annually, valued between $7 billion and $9 billion. Deliveries will begin in 2026.

India’s LNG demand is expected to more than double by 2030, according to the International Energy Agency. The surge is driven by rising gas consumption across industries, transport, and refineries. With India aiming to boost gas in its energy mix, Gulf producers who are expanding production like Oman, Qatar, and the UAE are well-positioned to meet its needs.

ADNOC Gas has already pre-sold most of the output from its upcoming Ruwais LNG plant, which will double its production capacity when it comes online in 2028. Meanwhile, ADNOC Logistics & Services, its shipping division, recently secured $2.1 billion in financing to expand its fleet and support exports.

Gecko Robotics to double UAE staff

Gecko Robotics — which develops devices and software to inspect and maintain critical infrastructure — plans to double its workforce and the number of robots deployed in the UAE, its CEO told Semafor. The Pittsburgh-based company’s wall-climbing robots are currently inspecting tanks and other assets at ADNOC Gas, helping the producer modernize asset maintenance, reduce costly shutdowns, and improve operational efficiency. Gecko’s CEO Jake Loosararian said minimizing downtime is crucial for energy firms because a month of lost production, for example, can cost “$30 million to $40 million per day.”

Analysis: Riyadh is US’ Mideast broker

As Washington shifts its attention to Iran and Ukraine, Saudi Arabia has emerged as the central hub for negotiations on two of the toughest issues facing the Trump administration, Al Arabiya’s Chief International Anchor Hadley Gamble writes in a Semafor column.

“Saudi Arabia has emerged as the definite counterweight to Israel. To put it another way: If the president sees Israel as the center of American influence in the Middle East, Saudi Arabia is the US’ essential partner,” Gamble wrote. “And it makes sense. Saudi Arabia is the largest economy in the Gulf, the de facto leader of OPEC, and a regional power with the financial and political heft to shape events across the Middle East.”

US food boycotts ease

A consumer boycott over US support for Israel caused profits to slump at the Gulf’s biggest operator of American fast food restaurants last year, but pressure may be easing. Americana Restaurants — which runs some 1,850 outlets around the region under brands like KFC and Pizza Hut — blamed geopolitical tensions and weak consumer demand for the 9% fall in revenue and the 39% drop in profit in 2024 compared to a year earlier. It said demand started to pick up in the fourth quarter, but there are clouds on the horizon: Trump’s Gaza policy is stoking regional tensions anew. Rivals have seen similar trends. McDonald’s reported improving business in the latter months of 2024 while Kuwait’s Alshaya Group says consumer demand has recently picked up, though it has paused plans to sell part of its regional Starbucks franchise.

Saudi Arabia’s infrastructure splurge

The amount that Saudi Arabia plans to invest in infrastructure by 2030. The government has been pouring money into transport systems, tourism resorts, sporting venues, power plants, and industrial sites in an effort to boost non-oil economic activity. Speaking at a Public Investment Fund event, Economy and Planning Minister Faisal Alibrahim said private sector involvement is supporting the build-out but did not specify how much of the $1 trillion investment would come from public versus private sources. With Riyadh set to host the World Expo in 2030, infrastructure projects in the capital are a top priority in Saudi’s economic development plan.

Governance

• Graft remains entrenched across much of the Middle East, according to the latest Corruption Perceptions Index from Transparency International, but the Gulf is relatively clean. The UAE is ranked 23 out of 180 countries, just ahead of Austria and France; other Gulf states rank from 38 (Oman and Saudi Arabia) to 65 (Kuwait).

Checking In

• UAE-based Air Arabia, the region’s largest low-cost carrier, made record pretax profits of 1.6 billion dirhams ($436 million) last year, as passenger numbers climbed 12% to almost 19 million.

Diplomacy

• Preparations for a US-Russia presidential summit in Saudi Arabia are expected to begin this week, with US Secretary of State Marco Rubio and his Russian counterpart reportedly meeting in Riyadh, ahead of an expected visit by Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy. Officials are slated to finalize a date for the summit before the start of Ramadan in March.

Sovereign Wealth

• The Public Investment Fund reduced US stock holdings by nearly 24% to $26.8 billion at the end of 2024 compared to a year earlier, Enterprise News Saudi reported. Saudi Arabia’s sovereign wealth fund’s top stakes include electric vehicle maker Lucid Group, Uber Technologies, and video game company Electronic Arts.

A five-year royal Qatari battle for the world’s largest cut blue diamond — the 70-carat Idol’s Eye — has ended. The saga of the storied $10 million gemstones is complex. The diamond is owned by Elanus, a holding company representing the heirs of a prolific Qatari royal art collector who died in 2014. That year, Elanus loaned the gem to Sheikh Hamad Abdullah Al-Thani’s QIPCO under a deal granting the company first refusal if the stone was ever put up for sale.

In 2020, a family member linked to Elanus proposed a sale. Sheikh Hamad moved quickly, and when other Elanus beneficiaries demurred, he launched a legal case to enforce the sale. A High Court judge in London has now ruled that Elanus can’t be forced to sell, quashing Sheikh Hamad’s hopes of acquiring the diamond.

Dr. Bishara Bahbah chaired Arab Americans for Trump during last year’s election. As the Biden administration supplied aid to Israel without conditions, and as the war in Gaza continued, Bahbah’s group urged voters to back the GOP nominee, send a message, and get a new deal.

Trump won, helped broker a ceasefire, and seemed to be delivering on Bahbah’s hopes. And then, earlier this month, standing next to Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, Trump said that the United States would take over Gaza and move out its inhabitants before it was rebuilt into something else. Almost immediately, Bahbah renamed his group — it’s now Arab Americans for Peace — and warned that Trump was making a mistake.

Bahbah spoke to Semafor’s David Weigel about the aftermath of Trump’s announcement.