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China’s new cutting-edge AI model alarms Silicon Valley, renewed focus on Russia’s secret war, and h͏‌  ͏‌  ͏‌  ͏‌  ͏‌  ͏‌ 
 
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January 27, 2025
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The World Today

  1. China’s next top AI model
  2. New cable sabotage fears
  3. Peace risks for Russia
  4. CIA backs lab leak theory
  5. RFK confirmation hearing
  6. Colombia trade war averted
  7. Congolese rebels take city
  8. India’s China dam concern
  9. FLW tower to be sold
  10. Tasmania’s whiskey boom

The London Review of Substacks, and recommending an exhibition of Japanese art.

1

Chinese AI model shakes Big Tech

A photo of the Deepseek logo
CFOTO/Sipa USA via Reuters

A Chinese artificial intelligence startup debuted a model so impressive it shook financial markets, amplified Western geopolitical fears, and raised concerns over Silicon Valley’s strategy. The large language model by DeepSeek — founded by a Chinese hedge-fund manager and developed at a fraction of the cost of Big Tech platforms — topped iPhone download charts and was rising on Google’s app store, “stirring doubts… about the strength of America’s lead in AI,” Bloomberg wrote. Major tech stocks, meanwhile, fell as investors reassessed giant firms’ spending plans on mammoth data centers and AI development: Meta, whose researchers are “in panic mode” over DeepSeek’s model, according to The Information, plans to spend $65 billion on AI infrastructure this year alone.

For more on the fast-changing world of AI, subscribe to Semafor’s Tech newsletter. →

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2

Undersea cable cut in Baltic Sea

A cross-section of an undersea internet cable. Wikimedia Commons.

Another undersea data cable was damaged in the Baltic Sea, highlighting the ongoing risks of sabotage to marine infrastructure. The line between Latvia and Sweden was cut in Swedish waters, and Swedish authorities seized a Maltese-flagged vessel, DW reported. NATO is stepping up its protection of undersea links, after a number of incidents in recent years involving Russia- and China-linked ships. Moscow in particular is ramping up retaliation for what it views as Western aggression in Ukraine: A former British spy chief told a parliamentary committee that Moscow is deploying tactics just below the threshold of armed conflict, and that the fundamental problem is that “they think they are at war with us, and we do not think we are at war with them.”

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3

Russia’s risks of peace

Vladimir Putin
Sputnik/Gavriil Grigorov via Reuters

An end to the conflict in Ukraine could prove as risky for Russia as continuing on with the war, analysts said. Moscow has suffered major casualties and is considering peace talks at US President Donald Trump’s urging. Russian President Vladimir Putin’s forces are grappling with “growing human and materiel losses” which “make the ongoing deterioration of the Russian army irreversible,” an expert on the Russian armed forces wrote. For Moscow, “having brought the country this far, it is unclear that Putin and his team can go back,” an analyst argued in Foreign Affairs, pointing to looming economic issues, a disaffected population of military-age males, and broader domestic discontent. “Ending the war would be just as dangerous as waging it.”

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4

CIA backs lab-leak hypothesis

A chart showing excess mortality during COVID-19 by country

A US intelligence analysis of the origins of the COVID-19 virus suggested a lab leak was the most plausible hypothesis. The debate goes back to the pandemic’s early days: A lab leak was initially dismissed as a conspiracy theory, with most experts believing the virus originated in a market. The CIA’s new director, however, is a longstanding supporter of the lab-leak thesis. The latest assessment is not based on fresh evidence, and is considered “low confidence.” Some US officials say that regardless, further regulation of labs is necessary. But the CIA director said there would be major geopolitical implications if “a virus that killed over a million Americans originated in a [Chinese Communist Party]-controlled lab.”

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5

RFK hearings loom

A chart showing the COVID-19 vaccine rates in the US

Robert F. Kennedy, Donald Trump’s controversial pick for US Health Secretary, faces a tough confirmation hearing when he appears before the Senate on Wednesday. Kennedy has a long record of anti-vaccine advocacy, claiming — against scientific consensus — that both the polio and measles vaccines cause more harm than good. The former environmental lawyer, who last week skipped a meeting on pandemic preparedness, claims that infectious diseases disappear because of improved hygiene, not vaccines. Experts have called his increasingly popular anti-vaccine stance “grossly irresponsible,” saying it contributes to the spread of viruses such as bird flu. Kennedy’s confirmation would be “dangerous to public health,” The Wall Street Journal’s editorial board argued.

For the latest on the Trump presidency, subscribe to Semafor’s daily US politics newsletter. →

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6

Colombia agrees to US deal

Colombian President Gustavo Petro
Marckinson Pierre/Reuters

Colombia agreed to accept migrants deported from the US, as both countries backed down from the brink of a trade war. US President Donald Trump has made immigration an early priority, declaring the situation at the country’s border a national emergency, and launching a nationwide blitz that saw the arrest of nearly 1,000 people thought to be in the country illegally. Trump has also threatened several Latin American countries with sanctions if they failed to stem the flow of migrants. Elsewhere, too, rightist governments have begun deporting migrants: An Italian Navy ship transferred 49 asylum seekers to Albania yesterday after Rome revived a much-criticized program to process their claims outside the country.

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7

Rebels seize DRCongo city

People fleeing Goma
Stringer/Reuters

Rwanda-backed rebels claimed control of a key city in the Democratic Republic of Congo, a major advance in a days-long offensive. It is a significant escalation in a protracted conflict in the country’s mineral-rich east, which has resulted in a humanitarian crisis. Rwanda has denied any official ties to the M23 rebels, who announced Monday they had captured the city of Goma, but UN experts say Kigali has provided significant backing. The UN Security Council called for the rebel offensive to end, but “talk is cheap,” one expert wrote in the Financial Times, noting that Western powers criticized Kigali even as they offered financial support to Rwanda to address migration and security issues.

For more from the continent, subscribe to Semafor’s thrice-weekly Africa newsletter. →

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8

India worried by China dam

A chart showing the biggest hydropower plants in the world

Indian officials raised the alarm over a huge Chinese hydropower project, threatening to derail nascent efforts to reduce bilateral tensions. New Delhi has argued the Chinese plans — for a dam three times as large as the Three Gorges Dam, currently the world’s biggest — could impact regional water security and cause flooding downstream: One Indian state chief minister warned it could unleash a “water bomb.” Indian officials are wary of the opacity surrounding the project, with basic designs or details of the companies undertaking construction not yet made public. But the two countries, which have made fitful efforts to repair relations following deadly border clashes in 2020, also have a legacy of distrust.

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9

Wright skyscraper sold

The Price Building
Flickr

A Frank Lloyd Wright-designed building in Oklahoma was sold after months of legal disputes. The 1956-built tower block is the only skyscraper ever designed by the great US architect, and is a “priceless artifact of paramount importance,” according to a local judge. The building will be sold for $1.4 million — roughly the cost of a three-bedroom apartment in Brooklyn — after a court ruled that its owners had been illegally selling off its furnishings to pay off debts. Price Tower has been empty for months after those same owners ignored a ruling ordering them to turn the utilities back on. The tower was originally intended to be built in New York: Wright nicknamed it “the tree that escaped the crowded forest.”

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10

Whiskey’s growth down under

A bottle of Tasmanian whiskey
McHenry distillery/Instagram

Tasmania is the whiskey-making capital of the southern hemisphere, according to Bloomberg. The Australian island is home to more than 70 distilleries, and its exports have won top international awards. The island’s latitudes are not as high as those of Scotland, the traditional home of whisky, but like Scotland, Tasmania has highlands, peat bogs, and “a damp and temperate climate,” as well as clear waters. It’s far from the only unexpected place to develop its own whisk(e)y industry: India’s single malts are taking off, as are New Zealand’s. Bloomberg’s Brad Japhe was “especially enamored with the dried fig and plum notes” from a Tasmanian 92-proof single malt.

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Flagging
  • EU foreign ministers meet in Brussels, with the bloc’s chief foreign-policy official saying they are likely to ease sanctions on Syria.
  • Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni begins a visit to Saudi Arabia and Bahrain.
  • Ceremonies are held to mark the 80th anniversary of the liberation of the Nazi Auschwitz-Birkenau death camp.
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LRS
The London Review of Substacks

Fallout

The philosopher Sam Harris was friends with Elon Musk. Now he is not. “I didn’t set out to become an enemy of the world’s richest man,” he wrote, “but I seem to have managed it all the same.” When they first met, “Elon wasn’t especially rich or famous,” but teetering on the edge of bankruptcy, risking his last dollars to make Tesla work. He also “did not seem to hunger for public attention” in the way that he does now: “His engagement with Twitter/X transformed him.”

The pair fell out in 2020 over COVID-19: Harris thought Musk’s public skepticism was ill-founded and would exacerbate the problem. They made a bet over its spread: Harris says that Musk reneged on the bet and then started abusing him online. It is, says Harris, indicative of Musk’s broader evolution into an “avatar of chaos.” He remains “the greatest entrepreneur of our generation,” but “there is something seriously wrong with his moral compass, if not his perception of reality.”

Diggin’ the scene

The second half of the 20th century in the US saw an incredible range of artistic and cultural revolutions: Beat poetry, pop art, conceptualism, rock ‘n’ roll, hip-hop, punk, postmodern dance. “It is unlikely we will see such an interconnected series of efflorescences ever again,” writes Ian Leslie in The Ruffian. “We are living, by comparison, in an age of cultural stagnation.” No doubt there are many such reasons, but one big one is that “artists no longer gather in cities.”

Brian Eno used the term “scenius” to describe “the collective genius” that emerges from a geographically small, tight-knit community of talents, hanging out in bars, theaters, music clubs, thriving on “physical, serendipitous interactions.” But that happens much less now: “In post-war New York, artists colonised buildings that few others wanted to live in,” but skyrocketing real-estate prices across the Western world leave “fewer and fewer affordable pockets of the city for artists to flee to.”

The hero’s path

Who should we learn about at school? We teach schoolchildren about certain figures: In the past, depending on your country, it might have been Elizabeth I or Napoleon, Shakespeare or Mozart, Florence Nightingale or MLK. In recent years, “other names have entered — or attempted to enter — this canon,” writes the pseudonymous writer Edrith: Mary Seacole, Ada Lovelace. What are we trying to achieve with these names? There are two main types, says Edrith: “Giants and Heroes.”

Giants are those who had a huge impact on the world: Alexander the Great, Genghis Khan, Einstein. They “need not be virtuous, admirable or otherwise endearing,” although they can be. With Heroes, by contrast, “we wish to be inspired by their character”: Perhaps Edmund Hillary or Rosa Parks. The list of Heroes changes, as society’s mores shift — we value physical courage less; we value diversity more. But the list of Giants is more static, because whatever happens, “the Wright Brothers still built the first plane.” “It is right that we should seek our Heroes to suit our age,” says Edrith. “Our only mistake is if we confuse them with Giants.”

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Semafor Recommends

Ken Matsubara exhibition at the Ippodo Gallery, Tokyo. Matsubara creates modern interpretations of traditional Japanese art, and his paintings of Wisteria flowers — following the inspiration of the 18th-century Kyoto great Maruyama Okyo — will be on display at the Ippodo this spring. His works have a “mysterious and enchanting beauty,” according to Kateigaho International. Contact the gallery for tickets here.

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Semafor Spotlight
A great read from Semafor TechnologyDemis Hassabis speaking during the Nobel Prize lecture in chemistry in Stockholm in December 2024.
TT News Agency/Pontus Lundahl via Reuters

Google has found a cheaper way to run AI models, Google DeepMind co-founder Demis Hassabis told Semafor’s Reed Albergotti. That efficiency could give the company a long-term edge in Big Tech’s high-stakes innovation race.

For more on the AI arms race, subscribe to Semafor Tech. →

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