Flagship

Battle for second in freezing Iowa

Former U.S. President Donald Trump’s status as the overwhelming favorite for the Republican presidential nomination means the focus is on who comes second as the closely watched Iowa caucus begins. Nikki Haley and Ron DeSantis present themselves as the only realistic alternatives: Ahead of the caucus, the country’s first nominating contest, Haley told supporters that they represent a chance to change the nation’s direction and avoid the “chaos” that follows Trump. Storms forced Trump to cancel all but one of his rallies, and low temperatures may reduce turnout, but he still expects a big win, if the polls are accurate. Haley and DeSantis are hoping to stay in the race, with Haley, seen as more moderate, showing signs of momentum, despite conservative Iowa not being her natural battleground.

AI dominates Davos agenda

Artificial intelligence will affect 40% of jobs worldwide, the International Monetary Fund said ahead of the World Economic Forum in Davos. AI is at the top of the Davos agenda this year, and the IMF chief Kristalina Georgieva said in a blog post that the technology could “jumpstart productivity, boost global growth and raise incomes,” but equally could “replace jobs and deepen inequality.” New technology has traditionally affected routine work, but AI is unusual in its impact on high-skilled jobs, she said, meaning advanced economies face both greater risks and greater opportunities: In rich countries, about 60% of jobs could be affected. “The AI era is upon us,” said Georgieva, “and it is still within our power to ensure it brings prosperity for all.”

Sign up to Semafor’s Davos Daily newsletter for dispatches from the Swiss Alps, including Ben Smith and Liz Hoffman’s story on the World Economic Forum’s biggest problem: Its embarrassingly large pile of cash.

Little hope for Davos Ukraine ‘peace talks’

Ukraine presented a 10-point peace plan to representatives of 83 countries at Davos, outlining Kyiv’s terms for ending the war with Russia. It’s the fourth such gathering since the war began, this time drawing more attendees from developing, non-Western countries. But China was a significant absentee, and Moscow — which also did not attend — will not accept Ukraine’s call for a complete withdrawal of Russian forces from occupied territory. Meanwhile Zelenskyy’s chief of staff said that a ceasefire without withdrawal would create a “frozen conflict” and was “not the path to peace.”

Cape Verde declared malaria-free

Cape Verde became the fourth African country to be declared free of malaria. The World Health Organization said the small island nation had not reported a single case of local transmission in three years. Malaria is spread by mosquitoes and kills 600,000 people, mainly children, each year in Africa: Cape Verde has spent years strengthening its detection and treatment of the disease, and controlling mosquito populations. Being an archipelago makes control of malaria easier — in mainland Africa, people often cross borders, making it hard for any one nation to control it on its own. Mauritius, another island state, was declared malaria-free in 1973.

China slams Taiwan vote

The diplomatic fallout of Taiwan’s vice president — labeled a separatist by China — winning the island’s presidential election was swift, with Beijing slamming the vote and the Pacific island nation of Nauru switching its diplomatic allegiance away from Taipei. Lai Ching-te had been narrowly favored in Saturday’s poll, but pro-China interventions in the latter stages of the campaign by his opponents appeared to sway the election further towards his incumbent party, which is suspicious of closer ties with China. Analysts said the vote would likely increase tensions across the Taiwan Strait and between Washington and Beijing, but noted that voters also delivered a divided legislature, limiting the scope of what Lai can do.

The Iowa caucus’ official kicking off of the U.S. election pushes the race to the White House to the top of our Global Election Hot List, with news of a splinter party in South Korea and a far-right flameout in Europe also near the top of the charts. 2024 will be defined by elections, and with so many votes around the world, it can be hard to keep track of them at all. That’s why we’re assembling the top election stories from around the globe into a weekly list. Informed by in-depth polling, international reporting, and local expertise, we’ll alert you to the big trends and the coming surprises in this unstable new global politics.

China calls for Gaza peace talks

China’s foreign minister called for an Israel-Palestine peace conference during a visit to Egypt. China has sought to increase its role in the Middle East in recent years, notably mediating a restoration of official diplomatic ties between Saudi Arabia and Iran and hosting a Gaza-focused meeting last year. Beijing wants to show developing countries the U.S.-backed “rules-based order” is eroding, the president of the European Council on Foreign Relations argued, and is using the wars in Gaza and Ukraine as evidence: “Beijing’s selling point is precisely that in a world of fragmentation, it is not forcing other countries to choose sides.”

Arévalo sworn in as Guatemala president

Bernardo Arévalo was sworn in as president of Guatemala despite attempts from opponents to delay his inauguration. Arévalo — a former sociologist who has vowed to crack down on the graft and poverty that have fueled a historic wave of migration to the U.S. — had faced what many believe were spurious accusations of corruption since his landslide election win last year. In response, the U.S. sanctioned more than 300 members of the outgoing government. In a show of support for Arévalo, dozens of heads of state attended his swearing-in ceremony in Guatemala City. “The support of the world’s democratic nations has been crucial for us to be here,” Arévalo said.

North Korea’s new hypersonic missile

North Korea said it tested its first solid-fuel hypersonic missile, designed to travel five times the speed of sound and evade missile defense systems. The country also launched its first solid-fuel ballistic missile and its first spy satellite in 2023, among other advances, as it pushes resources into military manufacture despite its parlous economic state. North Korea is an increasingly important supplier of arms, especially to Russia, which offers technological expertise in exchange to boost Pyongyang’s missile and satellite programs. Tensions are already high on the Korean peninsula after North Korean leader Kim Jong Un last week called South Korea his “principal enemy” and said he would destroy it “without [a] moment’s hesitation” if provoked.

NFL game sets streaming record

The Dolphins-Chiefs NFL game on Saturday was the most streamed live event in U.S. history, drawing almost 28 million viewers. According to Comcast, the game — which was available exclusively on the Peacock streaming platform — accounted for 30% of U.S. internet traffic. The record figures highlight streaming giants’ increasing clout in sports: Last year, Netflix aired a celebrity golf tournament that was its first live sports event. Analysts believe Netflix and other streamers may one day bid for games in most of the big leagues, including the NBA. “Netflix’s next frontier has to be more sports rights,” an expert told The Economist.

New plant species already endangered

Scientists at London’s Royal Botanic Gardens, Kew, discovered 89 new species in 2023 — and at least one is likely to have gone extinct already. The 74 plants and 15 fungi were discovered in places spanning from Antarctica — where three species of fungi were found — to Mozambique, home to an apparently meat-eating plant that traps insects using sticky hairs. An orchid living in an Indonesian volcano, and trees that live entirely underground except for their flowers, were also among the discoveries. Scientists said that three-quarters of the new species were already endangered. Around 2,500 new plants and fungi are named each year: It is estimated that there are 100,000 species of plants yet to be identified, and far more fungi, of which just 5-10% of species are believed to be known.

• North Korea is expected to convene a parliamentary meeting to discuss this year’s state budget.
• The United States marks Martin Luther King Jr. Day to celebrate the legacy of the civil rights hero.
• Maboroshi, a new Japanese anime, drops on Netflix.

Nerdwatching

The Weird Nerd is a strange social species: People with an unyielding devotion to truth over social niceties or norms. As a result they can be hard to interact with, but they are crucial — they spot truths, drive innovation. For years, the Weird Nerd “found a sanctuary within the confines of academia,” writes Ruxandra Teslo, a Cambridge biologist, “where its traits are not only tolerated but often nurtured.” As a result, the rest of us benefit from the Nerd’s insights and discoveries, “without the need to engage directly with its often annoying demeanour.”

But the Nerd’s home in academia is dwindling. Teslo notes that between 1990 and 2002, 66% of winners of the Intel/Westinghouse Science Fair pursued academic careers. (She assumes that Science Fair winners “are good representations of the Weird Nerd.”) But between 2003 and 2014, just 33% did. Increasingly, academia is being overtaken by what she calls “The Failed Corporatist,” who “loves process, admin … and social conformity.” Meanwhile, the Nerds are ending up in tech and finance, to academia’s — and perhaps society’s — cost.

We interrupt this broadcast

An oldie, this, but one that deserves wider recognition. In 2011, the writer Sam Bleckley realized something: In conversation, he often offends or hurts people, without meaning to. A friend points out that Sam is a member of what he calls “the Church of Interruption.” In conversation, some people will interrupt the other person to signal that they understand what is being said; and they will keep talking until the other person interrupts them, because they assume that means they are not yet understood. (Flagship’s Tom is very much part of this church.)

But other people — the Church of Strong Civility — have different rules. They do not interrupt; they speak briefly, and use physical cues to signal understanding and desire to speak. When the members of the same church speak to each other, that’s fine, but when an Interrupter speaks to a Civilist, you have problems: The Interrupter expects to be interrupted, and so keeps talking; the Civilist expects to be allowed to finish. If you are conversing between churches, “conversational habits you’ve been building for decades won’t work anymore.”

Neuroskeptic

Neuroscience has not suffered in recent years as its softer sister, psychology, has. Dozens of the most famous psychological findings have been overturned or undermined in the last decade, as scientists realized that the statistical methods used were inadequate. But neuroscience, perhaps protected by its more science-y appearance and cool beeping machines, has not had the same reckoning. The neuroscientist Erik Hoel thinks it may be coming.

Neuroimaging studies, using brain scanners, are the bread and butter of the field, but most have only a few dozen participants: To have the statistical power to detect anything interesting “requires sample sizes in the thousands,” meaning the studies are a mess of “false negatives, false positives, and poor reproducibility.” There remains no overarching theory. And worst of all, neuroscientists shy away from the biggest thing in neuroscience: Consciousness.

A new BBC podcast series investigates online hate. In Why Do You Hate Me?, Marianna Spring, one of the broadcaster’s most trolled correspondents, tracks down conspiracy theorists, impersonators, deep-fakers, as well as the people they harm, to uncover what drives their behavior on social media. Her interviewees include a 22-year-old Polish woman who claimed to be Madeleine McCann, the British child who went missing in Portugal in 2007; the London Mayor Sadiq Khan, the victim of a deepfake attack, as well as the user who made it go viral; and a U.S. conspiracy theorist who propagated a theory about a 2018 shooting in Las Vegas.

• Scandals aren’t slowing down the carbon offset market.
• The business model behind resurrecting the woolly mammoth.
• Ron DeSantis, Media Critic.