Net Zero

Haley wins climate hawks

Climate policy is not a winning platform for Republican presidential candidates: Just 13% of Republican voters rank it as a top priority, according to Pew, and Donald Trump still maintains that climate change is a “hoax.” But for those few conservative climate hawks, something about Nikki Haley’s message is getting through.

The former South Carolina governor won endorsement for her presidential campaign today from the Conservative Coalition for Climate Solutions, an advocacy group. And win or lose, that sets her up to shape how the issue is framed for the next generation of Republican politicians. She’s found success in toning down the denial of climate science that’s common in her party, adopting an aggressive posture toward climate-related diplomacy and trade with China, and demonstrating her knowledge of niche energy sectors, starting in Iowa with biofuels.

A growing number of Republican politicians recognize how important climate action is to young voters, including conservatives, and see a long-term benefit in staking out a more pragmatic approach to it, said Bob Inglis, a Republican who represented South Carolina in Congress in the mid-2000s until he was unseated in a primary in large part because of his support for Obama-era climate policies.

For now, Inglis said, most candidates remain terrified of being denounced by Trump. But even if Trump wins the presidency this year, by the time his term is halfway up “the longer-term Republicans will assert themselves,” Inglis said. “People will want to see the new style, and it could be Nikki Haley showing how to do that.”

Cleaner, but not enough

Total U.S. greenhouse gas emissions fell 1.9% in 2023, despite GDP growth of 2.4%, according to a new Rhodium Group analysis.

That’s the largest separation between positive economic growth and falling emissions since 2019, suggesting that the U.S. economy is able to expand while getting cleaner. The biggest factor, the analysis found, was the declining use of coal for electricity, which hit a record low; for the first time, the country’s nuclear power fleet generated more electricity than coal over the year. Still, the U.S. is far off-track to meet its goal of halving emissions by 2030 — for that to happen, they need to fall 6.9% every year from now until then, more than triple the drop in 2023.

OK for deep-sea mining

Norway became the first country to approve deep-sea mining, opening a 108,000-square-mile patch off its coast. Parts of the global seafloor are rich in rocky “nodules” that contain economically attractive concentrations of minerals like nickel, manganese, cobalt, and copper that are crucial for electric-vehicle batteries and undersupplied by existing onshore mines. A handful of eager offshore mining ventures have been scrambling to set up operations and grab market share before more onshore mines get built, but international talks over rules for seafloor mining have stalled. Norway said it would require environmental impact studies by any applicants for a seafloor mining license, and none have been issued yet.

Slow solar rollout

Planned spending by Tata Power, one of India’s top electric utilities, on clean energy projects. In a deal reached this week with the state government of Tamil Nadu, the company said it will build 50,000 acres worth of solar and wind farms, a down payment on the company’s goal to reach 100% renewable power by 2045. Overall, India is falling far short of its renewable energy targets due to a lack of private-sector investment; the rate of solar and wind installation from the last few years needs to triple, according to Bloomberg. And meanwhile, as the country’s total power demand rises rapidly, coal production is expected to double by 2030.

Fixing those damned radiators

Marshall Cox’s journey into climate tech started when his Columbia University engineering PhD was almost derailed by two disruptions in his apartment that should be familiar to anyone who’s lived in New York City in the winter: A clanging, overheated radiator, and an obnoxious roommate who won’t stop complaining about it.

In Cox’s case, the roommate was his twin brother, so he couldn’t exactly kick him out. Instead, he went to work with some foil wrap, a fan, a programmable circuit board, and “a lot of duct tape,” rigging up a system to insulate the radiator and keep the room temperature moderate without resorting to the old trick of opening a window. A decade later, Cox has spun a homemade hack into a startup, Kelvin, that raised $30 million last year and has installed energy-saving radiator covers in about 15,000 New York City apartments.

Energy consumed by buildings, especially natural gas for heating, contributes two-thirds of New York’s carbon footprint. But it’s costly to replace the old-style central radiator systems of large apartment buildings with electric, lower-carbon alternatives. Instead, Kelvin’s system balances radiator heat between rooms, which cuts down the building’s energy use; Cox said that for most building owners the cost of the system is quickly offset by energy bill savings. Now he’s planning to go a step further, installing this month in a low-income housing complex the pilot version of a new system that combines an apartment-sized electric heat pump with a small thermal battery. In the winter, the system cuts radiator use, and in summer, the battery stores electricity at night that can be sold at higher prices back into the grid the next day.

“You get about 75% of the decarbonization benefit, at what amounts to less than 15% of the implementation costs of [full] electrification,” Cox said. “And the economics are such that we can fully finance the deployment of this technology through demand response.”

A new New York law that mandates large buildings to cut their carbon footprint, and a $27 billion package of federal grants for clean energy and energy efficiency in buildings will clear a path for similar startups, he said: “This year is going to be outrageous.”

January 14-19, 2024 | Switzerland

Semafor will be on the ground at the World Economic Forum in Davos, Switzerland, covering what’s happening on the main stages and lifting the curtain on what’s happening behind them.

Sign up to receive our pop-up newsletter: Semafor Davos (and if you’re flying to Zurich let us know so we can invite you to one of Semafor’s private convenings).

New Energy

• In one of the largest solar panel deals ever, South Korea’s Qcells said it will supply Microsoft with 12 gigawatts worth of panels. Manufacturing will take place at Qcells’ new $2.5 billion gigafactory in Georgia.
• Although the U.S. is still to build its first small modular nuclear reactor, it’s already persuading Western allies to acquire their own. The move is part of efforts to wrest dominance away from Russia — the industry global giant — and China, an upstart in the sector. It also follows a U.S. commitment at COP28 to triple nuclear energy output over the next three decades, The Wall Street Journal reported.
• China’s biggest power company is on track to beat its goal to produce 40% of its power from renewables by 2025. China Energy Investment Corp., which is the world’s top producer of power from wind and coal, said that new wind installations in China’s deserts and offshore will allow the company to hit that target this year.
• GE Vernova signed the largest deal in the company’s history to make wind turbines. The company will supply 674 turbines to the SunZia project in New Mexico, the largest U.S. clean energy project currently under development.

Fossil Fuels

• The U.S. Department of Energy is weighing whether to count climate impacts in its assessment of LNG terminal proposals. The move is opposed by industry groups who have seen a massive increase in demand for U.S. LNG, but it would give cover to Biden ahead of his reelection campaign as he comes under pressure from environmental groups for the LNG boom under his tenure in office.
• Despite potential supply chain disruptions from Red Sea hijackers and the war in Gaza, oil prices fell this week, a sign the market is oversupplied. Saudi Arabia cut its export prices to juice demand, and meanwhile, U.S. production is booming.
• ADNOC, the Emerati state-owned oil company, made its first equity investment in carbon capture, buying 10.1% of the U.K. firm Storegga, which develops carbon capture projects.

Finance

• Australia’s financial regulator plans to crack down on investment funds that are misleadingly labeled as green. Last year the regulator took three major funds to court over funds that were marketed as low-carbon but contained shares of mining companies and other large emitters. Financial regulators worldwide are getting more strict about what counts as “green.”
• Natural disasters caused $250 billion in damage in 2023, according to Munich Re. That’s about the same as the last five years, with about 40% of that value insured.

EVs

• The Vietnamese EV maker Vinfast said it will invest $2 billion on manufacturing facilities in India. India is the world’s third-largest car market. Vinfast is also ramping up its sales strategy for the U.S., where executives say they’re planning to offer one of the few EV models eligible for a full tax credit
• Honda announced a new line of space-age-looking EVs that will go into production in 2026. The company is investing $40 billion in its EV makeover, but currently doesn’t have any full EVs for sale and has lagged behind its competitors in sales of hybrids.
• Automakers sold 378,000 EVs in the U.S. in the third quarter of 2023, according to new industry data. That’s 10.1% of all car sales, and 63% higher than the same period in 2022.

Miranda Massie, director of The Climate Museum in New York. The Museum, which has moved between pop-up locations over the last few years, will settle at 105 Wooster Street through April.

Semafor’s 2024 World Economy Summit, on April 17-18, will feature conversations with global policymakers and power brokers in Washington, against the backdrop of the IMF and World Bank meetings.

Chaired by former U.S. Commerce Secretary Penny Pritzker and Carlyle Group co-founder David Rubenstein, and in partnership with BCG, the summit will feature 150 speakers across two days and three different stages. Join Semafor for conversations with the people shaping the global economy.

• Taylor Swift becomes an issue in Taiwan’s election and more in Semafor’s inaugural Global Election Hot List.
• Six African countries will be among the world’s highest growth economies in 2024.
• Do not try to boot House Speaker Mike Johnson, Moderate Republicans warn hardliners.