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Israel increasingly targets Hezbollah, Taiwan claims China is meddling in its upcoming election, and͏‌  ͏‌  ͏‌  ͏‌  ͏‌  ͏‌ 
 
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January 9, 2024
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The World Today

  1. Israel targets Hezbollah
  2. Taiwan’s China claims
  3. Duolingo fires staff for AI
  4. White House snubs Davos
  5. Ukraine’s non-US allies
  6. Gambian official on trial
  7. Ecuadorian emergency
  8. SKorea bans dog meat
  9. UK’s wind farm bet
  10. Fixing offensive names

The inaugural Semafor Global Election Hot List, texting about the future of the war in Ukraine, and the latest viral food sensation in China: ice.

1

Israel ups targeting of Hezbollah

Smoke rises after an IDF strike in Lebanon. Israel Defense Forces/Handout via REUTERS

Israeli targeting of Hezbollah ramped up as the country’s forces began what they described as a less-intense stage of their Gaza offensive. Two Israeli strikes on successive days killed one of the Iran-backed Lebanese group’s senior commanders as well as three fighters, while a Hezbollah drone reportedly struck an Israeli military command center — sparking worries that an expansion of the Israel-Hamas war into a broader conflict may be imminent. Analysts worry that such a shift, which diplomats have furiously sought to avoid, would be far costlier than the Gaza war, because Hezbollah is better equipped than Hamas, and Iran would likely be more involved. “Perhaps the most daunting thing about an Israeli-Hezbollah military confrontation is its apparent inevitability,” the former Israeli diplomat Alon Pinkas wrote in Haaretz.

The apparent shifting of the conflict came as pressure piled on Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu. Judges presiding over the politician’s corruption trial said they would speed up the pace of his years-long case, according to The Times of Israel, while the leader of the United Arab Emirates reportedly issued a sarcastic retort to Netanyahu’s request that Arab countries pay stipends to Palestinian workers in the West Bank whom Israel has barred from entering its territory. “Still, it would be unwise to write off Netanyahu,” Politico’s senior foreign-affairs correspondent noted. “In his decades in Israeli politics, he’s learned a thing or two about dealing with both enemies and friends.”

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2

Taiwan accuses Beijing of meddling

DPP candidate Lai Ching-te REUTERS/Carlos Garcia Rawlins

The favorite to win Taiwan’s upcoming presidential election accused Beijing of meddling. The accusations came as China announced it had launched a satellite through Taiwanese airspace, triggering an emergency alert across the self-governing island, and following allegations by Taipei’s defense ministry that Chinese-deployed balloons near or over the island sought to intimidate voters ahead of the Jan. 13 election. Beijing regards Taiwan as a renegade province and has described the incumbent party’s candidate, who is narrowly ahead in opinion polls, as a separatist. Still, thanks to concurrently tight legislative elections and close economic ties between Beijing and Taipei, “Taiwan’s next president, whoever he is, is unlikely to make a hugely dramatic shift in cross-Strait ties,” a regional expert wrote in Nikkei.

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3

Tech firm cuts workers for AI

Flickr

Duolingo, the language-learning software, cut 10% of its contractors and increased its use of artificial intelligence-based tools.We just no longer need as many people,” the company said after announcing the cuts. Tech companies, including some of the biggest employers in the industry, have begun to evaluate how the technology might enhance, or even replace, significant portions of their workforce: “I can’t sit here and say that AI will never displace a job,” Microsoft’s president said last month, adding that AI was primed to replace jobs considered “to be drudgery.” IBM’s CEO, meanwhile, said as many as 30% of back-office jobs, such as human resources, could be replaced by AI within five years.

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4

White House skipping Davos

Flickr

The Biden administration looks likely to keep its distance from Davos. Heading into an election year, senior White House officials who have previously made the trip to Switzerland are eschewing the confab. Their decision comes with the prospect looming of a rematch against ex-President Donald Trump — who, despite having been the last U.S. leader to attend the World Economic Forum, pursues fervently anti-elites messaging. There’s as yet no official word on who will represent Washington, but the dance is a familiar one among Western centrists, our colleagues at Principals report: French President Emmanuel Macron similarly skipped the gathering in 2022 ahead of his reelection bid.

For more from the World Economic Forum, which begins next week, sign up to Semafor’s daily pop-up newsletter. →

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5

Growing non-US support to Ukraine

U.S. allies sought to up their support for Ukraine amid signs Washington was unlikely to increase aid to Kyiv. Germany urged “higher contributions” from Europe, and called for a more-public overview of individual countries’ support — a shot at France, whose rhetoric has outpaced its aid, Politico reported. The call came as Japan’s foreign minister, on a visit to Kyiv, pledged anti-drone funds, while Tokyo has also loosened rules allowing for Patriot air defense missiles to be routed to Ukraine. “Many people may be tired of the sentence, ‘Ukraine is also fighting for our freedom’,” Die Welt’s foreign editor wrote. “Because Japan’s foreign minister knows this, she did not shy away from the 11,000 kilometer journey from Tokyo to Kyiv to bow there.”

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6

Jammeh aide’s trial opens

ELODIE LE MAOU/AFP via Getty Images

A former Gambian minister’s trial for crimes against humanity while in office opened in Switzerland, a rare case to be prosecuted under the “universal jurisdiction” principle. Ousman Sonko faces life imprisonment for actions taken during the rule of former Gambian dictator Yahya Jammeh, whose two decades in power were characterized by widespread rights abuses, enforced disappearances of critics, and political assassinations. According to Al Jazeera, Sonko’s case is only the second attempted in Switzerland since the country in 2011 began enforcing “universal jurisdiction,” which allows states to prosecute anyone accused of certain grievous crimes, regardless of where the crimes allegedly took place and whether or not the defendants are residents of the country hearing the case.

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7

Ecuador declares emergency

Ecuador declared a two-month state of emergency after the country’s most-wanted drug trafficker escaped from prison. President Daniel Noboa, a 36-year-old former businessman, has vowed to crack down on soaring crime levels that have made Ecuador — once a relatively peaceful nation — one of the most dangerous countries in Latin America. Since 2016, Ecuador’s murder rate has shut up by almost 500% as drug cartels battle for control of trafficking networks. This month, Noboa proposed a referendum that would expand the government’s crime-fighting capabilities and announced the construction of two new maximum-security prisons inspired by a mega-prison in El Salvador.

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8

SKorea approves dog meat ban

REUTERS/Kim Hong-Ji

Lawmakers in South Korea approved a ban on the sale of dog meat, the culmination of a decades-long campaign by animal-rights activists. The ban will go into effect in 2027. Although only about 5% of South Koreans said that they had eaten dog meat in the past year, many in the country saw the custom as “a societal sore” and “a punchline from outsiders.” Some also felt the practice overshadowed the country’s staggering modernization over the past half century. Eating dog meat nevertheless remains common in parts of east Asia, with some 30 million dogs being killed for consumption every year according to Humane Society International.

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9

Britain bets on floating wind farms

Britain is planning to build more floating wind farms to meet its net zero targets. Floating turbines can be placed in deeper water than fixed ones, meaning they can harness stronger winds further from shore. Plans are under way to open a 600-megawatt farm off Scotland by 2028, and government contracts are expected to attract several bidders. The North Sea is “one of the best wind corridors in the world,” one company director told the Financial Times, and Britain is pioneering the technology. Separately, in 2023 the amount of U.K. electricity generated by fossil fuels fell to its lowest level since 1957, according to Carbon Brief analysis, driven by reduced demand and the growth of renewable energy.

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10

Scientists debate species-naming

Anophthalmus hitleri. Flickr.

Scientists are debating what to do when species have offensive names. Since the early 19th century, the rules of taxonomy have dictated that the first scientific name applied to a species will be kept forever. But some scientists have given species names we might now regret, such as the beetle Anophthalmus hitleri, reported Yale Environment 360. Most species are also given names by Western scientists, ignoring names given to them by native people. Some argue offensive names should be replaced, although one Sri Lankan scientist said this was “ludicrous” and would put needless burden on underfunded taxonomists already struggling to classify species in developing nations. Instead of changing existing names, taxonomy’s governing body might instead recommend that future names are more carefully chosen.

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Global Election Hot List

Taiwan, Sri Lanka, and the United States lead the inaugural Semafor Global Election Hot List, our new weekly ranking of the key election stories from around the globe. It’s our attempt to orient you in a year that will see about 2 billion people cast ballots, and a shortcut to the key stories that shed light on the big patterns and the coming surprises in this unstable era. In Taiwan, an opposition leader says stronger ties with China could bring in Taylor Swift. In Sri Lanka, a communist is dominating the polls. And in the U.S., longshot Republican challengers to Donald Trump are betting it all on the early primary states. All over the world, a tide of populism is threatening fraying establishments, and we hope you’ll follow the story with us — and help us keep abreast of the key local signals of these global trends.

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  • Indonesian President Joko Widodo begins a three-day official visit to the Philippines.
  • Norway’s Parliament will debate a government proposal to open ocean areas for seabed mineral-mining.
  • The Princess of Wales turns 42.
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One Good Text

Yaroslav Trofimov is chief foreign-affairs correspondent at The Wall Street Journal. His new book, Our Enemies Will Vanish, is out today.

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Curio
SCMP/Instagram

Spicy grilled ice cubes have gone viral on social media with the South China Morning Post describing them as one of the “hottest” street foods in China right now. In a recent video a vendor is filmed basting ice cubes with oil then sprinkling them with chili flakes as they heat up on a grill. The origins of the snack are unclear: One vendor said the dish, also seasoned with cumin, was a speciality of northeastern China, but the SCMP reported that a food researcher from Heilongjiang said there were no such snacks in the province. Sold at 15 yuan ($2) per serving, they seem to be proving popular. “What a wonderful taste,” said one customer.

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WES 2024

Semafor’s 2024 World Economy Summit, on April 17-18, will feature conversations with global policymakers and power brokers in Washington, against the backdrop of the IMF and World Bank meetings.

Chaired by former U.S. Commerce Secretary Penny Pritzker and Carlyle Group co-founder David Rubenstein, and in partnership with BCG, the summit will feature 150 speakers across two days and three different stages, including the Gallup Great Hall. Join Semafor for conversations with the people shaping the global economy.

Join the waitlist to get speaker updates. →

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