noscript
Semafor LogoLiz Hoffman
Liz Hoffman
business

What will drive the economy in 2023? We asked 5 experts

Sign up for Semafor Business: Follow the money (and the memes.) Read it now.

Title iconThe News

Huge questions hang over 2023: Will AI save us? Can central bankers get inflation under control? How will CEOs fight the culture wars? Will Twitter implode? We asked some of the smartest people we know for their predictions.

Marty Chavez helped digitize the trading floor at Goldman Sachs and is now working on “making life programmable.”

Ross Gerber runs Gerber Kawasaki, a California-based wealth manager, who helped us land our scoop on Elon Musk trying to raise new money for Twitter. We asked him what the year ahead holds for the company.

Don Cornwell, a longtime PJT banker, co-founded a new firm this year to invest in what is shaping up to be the next hot asset class: sports teams

Born in Ethiopia in the early 1980s, Sara Menker saw famine ravage her country. She founded Gro Intelligence to make use of AI and data to battle food insecurity.

Orson Porter was Bill Clinton’s body man and now advises corporate CEOs on navigating Washington.

A PARTNER MESSAGE
The View From

In our 2023 U.S. Outlook, our economists say the world’s largest economy is likely to land softly. In fact, their forecast for the likelihood of the U.S. economy tipping into recession over the next 12 months is well below the median in recent surveys of economists.

Goldman Sachs Chief Economist Jan Hatzius points to two big drivers of the growth outlook—one positive and one negative. As interest rates have risen, the tightening in financial conditions weighs heavily on the economy. But real disposable personal income will rebound over the next year despite fiscal tightening. And while there are risks on both sides, the upturn in real income is likely to be the stronger force as we move through 2023. “We think the risk of recession is real, but our best guess is that we’ll avoid one,” Hatzius says.

See more from Hatzius about Goldman Sachs’ 2023 outlook.