US murders are on track to fall at a historic rate in 2025, according to an analysis of preliminary data.
The Real-Time Crime Index tracks 570 law enforcement agencies and is typically in line with official rates.
The projected 20% drop in murders from 2024 to 2025, which would be the largest decline ever recorded, furthers a trend that began in 2023; at least 10 cities are set to record the fewest murders since 1970, crime analyst Jeff Asher wrote on his Substack.
Polls indicate more Americans also feel safer, though partisanship often plays a role in that assessment.
That’s especially true this year, as President Donald Trump has deployed the National Guard to several cities with the intention of fighting crime.
