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US inflation cools, but experts caution on shutdown-related data distortions

Dec 18, 2025, 1:35pm EST
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A shopper browses a holiday food display
David Ryder/Reuters

US inflation cooled in November, though experts cautioned the government shutdown may have distorted the data released Thursday.

The 2.7% inflation reading, down from 3% in September, is welcome news for US President Donald Trump, who has looked to bolster his affordability messaging in recent weeks as his economic approval hit a new low: “Inflation has stopped,” Trump declared in a speech Wednesday.

But the shutdown changed how federal officials gathered November’s data, which should be taken “with the entire salt shaker,” Wells Fargo economists wrote.

Many Americans are still feeling price pressures — home energy costs are up 7.2% annually — and next month’s numbers will help verify “whether this is a statistical blip or a genuine disinflation,” Capital Economics wrote.

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