The News
Less than two weeks after South Korean President Yoon Suk Yeol declared — and quickly reversed — martial law, the country is in a deepening spiral of political turmoil, with no clear indication of who is actually running the government.
Yoon, who defended his actions as an effort to “save the country,” has refused to resign. Opposition lawmakers, meanwhile, have vowed to hold an impeachment vote every week until the resolution passes — eight members of Yoon’s party are needed to vote with them.
South Korean analysts are increasingly concerned about Seoul’s ability to defend its trade and security interests in the face of traditional antagonists North Korea and China, as well as the expected shift in US stance toward international trade and defense under US President-elect Donald Trump.
SIGNALS
Washington mulls ways to contain North Korea, China
South Korea’s political paralysis — coupled with an incoming US president known to be skeptical of international defense pacts — has many Washington officials worried about Seoul’s ability to contain North Korea and China, The Washington Post reported. “North Korea may interpret it as an opportunity” to sow chaos in the region and further afield, a Bush-era National Security Council member said, although Pyongyang has so far turned to mockery rather than action in response to the South’s turmoil. More worrying for Korean lawmakers is the prospect of no strong leader to “swiftly respond to adjustments in foreign policy or trade” under Donald Trump, who has threatened to hike tariffs if Seoul doesn’t pay for the 30,000 US troops stationed in the country.
Turmoil underscores liberal democracy’s fragility — and strength
President Yoon’s declaration of martial law, initially seen as coming out of the blue, reflected the deep polarization and political gridlock in South Korea that has made it almost impossible to effectively govern the country, the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace noted. “South Korea’s experience showcases a theme of the past decade, which has been marked by global concern over democratic backsliding: liberal democracy is surprisingly hard to consolidate and maintain.” On the other hand, the mass protests condemning Yoon’s actions are “a sign of a vibrant civil society ready to defend democracy,” a former diplomat who served under the Obama administration said.
Impeachment spotlights dispute between Yoon and opposition leader
President Yoon seems intent on holding power despite the fallout to prevent opposition leader Lee Jae-myung from achieving his own presidential ambitions, The Korea Herald reported. Lee is in the midst of appealing his conviction for violating electoral law — a charge he said was politically motivated — and he may be disqualified from running for president if the appeal fails. As a result, Yoon’s ruling party “likely intends to delay the election if possible,” including by obstructing his impeachment, the outlet wrote. Some high-ranking figures in Yoon’s party have hinted the president would likely resign if Lee wasn’t in the race to replace him.