The News
Senate Democrats acknowledge that their base is deeply disappointed with this year’s shutdown fights. And some say the party will discuss its future leadership.
But not for at least a year.
For now, even as progressives continue to needle Minority Leader Chuck Schumer, portraying him as the wrong leader of Trump-era Democrats, his own members are signaling they’re not ready yet to discuss whether new blood is necessary.
“I just think it’s focused on the wrong thing. I mean, we are 11 months away from a midterm where we can literally take back control of the Senate,” Sen. Cory Booker, D-N.J., a member of Schumer’s leadership team with a pugnacious approach toward Trump this year, told Semafor.
“We need to focus on those things and then have a leadership conversation after we bring a whole new class in,” Booker said. “I just want us to focus on what’s important, which is winning elections.”
The debate over Schumer’s future is revealing a lingering disconnect between the 47 Democratic caucus members and outside critics on the left. The caucus has no real mechanism to jettison Schumer and no appetite to do so, according to interviews with more than a half-dozen Democratic senators, but it’s also torn over whether to even discuss the topic.
Sen. Ruben Gallego, D-Ariz., said “those are conversations we should have when it’s time to have leadership elections, which is at the end of this cycle.”
Liberals have floated Sen. Chris Van Hollen, D-Md., as a potential Schumer replacement. Other groups have talked to Sen. Chris Murphy, D-Conn., about whether he’s interested in Senate leadership; he has demurred, according to a person familiar with those conversations.
All the public talk about the Democratic leader’s staying power is grating on some of his members. Sen. Peter Welch, D-Vt., called the debate about Schumer a “real distraction.”
“The shutdown was very successful. It elevated health care. And Schumer played a major role in it,” Welch said.
Murphy said criticism of party leaders is to be expected, as divisions over how to fight Trump persist. Schumer helped fund the government in March, leading to the first round of criticism, then helped engineer a fall shutdown strategy that ended with eight Democratic Caucus members defecting despite his entreaties.
Democrats exited the longest-ever US shutdown with a Senate vote on expiring health care subsidies, but no deal to preserve those benefits. More handwringing ensued.
“We’ve got to make a commitment to be better and more unified as a caucus,” Murphy told Semafor. “There was a lot of deserved head-scratching about why we chose to join with Republicans right at the moment when it felt like we had maximum opportunity to save a lot of lives.”
Still, he declined to comment on the possibility Schumer might face a Democratic challenger. Other Democrats also treaded carefully.
“We need every Democratic senator 100% in the fight for 2026. It matters less who has what title and more who is willing to put their shoulder to the wheel and get the work done,” added Massachusetts Sen. Elizabeth Warren, another leadership team member. “That’s all I want to say.”
Van Hollen said his message to Democrats floating his name was: “I agree we all need to fight harder to take on his lawless president and present a clear message about what the Democratic Party stands for. So I look forward to working with them on that mission.”
Know More
Leadership elections will likely occur next December, and Schumer is expected to run again (a separate decision from whether he’ll seek another six-year term come 2028). Those elections are rarely fought on ideological grounds, but instead over tactics, fundraising, recruiting and managing the caucus.
Two previous Senate leaders, Republican Mitch McConnell and Democrat Harry Reid, both faced a handful of “no” votes in their final elections as party leader. Schumer has not faced dissent in his previous leadership elections; he must win a majority of his members to remain as Democratic leader.
A number of Senate Democratic candidates in battleground races next year have said they won’t support Schumer as leader should they win, and some of Schumer’s own members are supporting candidates running against leadership picks.
Asked about the implicit criticism of his Senate race strategy, Schumer said on Tuesday his “north star is to win the Senate” and said he had “strong candidates” who give his party a chance to win. Indivisible, a progressive group, argues that Schumer is an anchor in the party’s bid to take the Senate.
“There are few levers available to Democrats that they can unilaterally pull to improve the brand of the party ahead of the midterms. Replacing the least popular politician in the country with someone else is a big one,” said Ezra Levin, a co-founder of Indivisible.
Geoff Garin, a longtime Democratic pollster, said there was “zero evidence” that the Senate leader affects voters’ preferences in general elections.
“Of all the ways that Republicans can attack Democrats next year, tying a Democrat to Chuck Schumer has to be at the very bottom of the list,” Garin said.
Notably, although bashing the Senate leader is an age-old tradition in the House, several House Democrats took a pass on the topic this week.
“They stood with us in the shutdown, and I think they’re all in a difficult position,” said Rep. Steve Cohen, D-Tenn. He said it was “not necessarily” the time for a new leader.
Rep. Ro Khanna, D-Calif., one of the party’s most forceful advocates for replacing Schumer, said it’s mainly a question of “timing, when it happens.”
“It’s increasingly a sentiment with the people in the caucus, just that he’s not the future and we need new people,” Khanna said, mentioning Van Hollen and Sen. Lisa Blunt Rochester, D-Del.
Room for Disagreement
Several Senate Democrats disputed that the caucus is even actively debating Schumer’s future.
Sen. Ben Ray Lujan, D-N.M., said “before there’s a challenge, people have to step forward. I’m not aware of any of those conversations or anyone suggesting that.”
Sen. Richard Blumenthal, D-Conn., said “the caucus is still firmly behind” Schumer.
“I don’t foresee a leadership challenge right now … when I say I haven’t heard any talk of it, I mean among the caucus,” Blumenthal told Semafor. “I have heard some of the party activists say: ‘Schumer should go.’”
The View From Republicans
Senate Republicans spent much of Joe Biden’s presidency fighting about tactics and whether to compromise with Democrats. They are enjoying the reversal of fortune — in their chamber, at least.
Chris Gustafson, a spokesperson for Senate Leadership Fund, a GOP super PAC, called Schumer “the most unpopular American political figure today,” and facetiously urged “Radical Democrat organizations to support Chuck Schumer and allow him to cling to power for another 25 years.”
Burgess’s view
Does anyone want to be the Democratic version of Rick Scott? The Floridian mounted an unwinnable challenge to McConnell in 2022, but he also spurred the first defections from the former GOP leader as his hold on his conference waned.
I haven’t heard of a Democrat willing to play the Scott role. Not yet, at least.
And it’s hard to imagine Schumer losing a leadership election next year, particularly if his party picks up seats. But it’s reasonable to question whether there might be some defections as some candidates oppose him; Reid lost some votes in 2014, despite having no opponent.
The cake isn’t baked yet. There’s a shutdown fight in January and a health care vote next week, then the party’s primaries start. Schumer will play huge roles in all three.
Morgan Chalfant contributed to this report.