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Childhood deaths to rise for first time this millennium

Dec 4, 2025, 7:26am EST
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A child tested for nutrition status in Malawi.
Benny Khanyizira/UNICEF via Reuters

Global deaths among children under five are forecast to rise this year for the first time this millennium, largely as a result of falling foreign aid.

The Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation predicted that 4.8 million children would die this year, up from 4.6 million last year. Declining humanitarian assistance is a major part of the reason why child deaths have fallen 50% since 2000.

But commitments are down by 25% this year compared to last: The US has dismantled initiatives to tackle diseases such as HIV and malaria, while other countries, including Germany and the UK, have also cut spending. Growing vaccine skepticism has also hit immunization rates, leading to a rise in deadly childhood illnesses.

A chart showing the projected increase in under-five child mortality, all causes, from 2024–25.
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