View / Why COP30 wasn’t as bad as it seemed

All things considered — including the fire that almost took the venue down — COP30 went about as well as it could have. Did the push by European countries to include an explicit new mandate on the “transition away from fossil fuels” make it into the final decision? No. But that was always almost certain to be too tall an order. Any forum where Saudi Arabia and Tuvalu have to agree on the best course of climate action is going to look like a letdown to many observers. But there are a few takeaways that are slightly more encouraging.

For one, the workaround solution that the summit’s Brazilian leadership put together — a new UN “implementation accelerator” and a transition “roadmap” — amount to almost the same thing Europeans demanded, and at the very least will produce some interesting new talking points for oil-producing countries to parry. For another, the conference actually happened, and produced a decision. Another low bar, yes, but these days it shouldn’t be taken for granted that a global conference on climate change can even reach a quorum; governments may not be rising fully to the occasion, but they (not counting the US, of course) are at least demonstrating a persistent willingness to keep talking about the issue.

Finally, it’s important to bear in mind that COP exists on a parallel track to the real, global economy. Even a far more (or less) ambitious-sounding outcome in Belém would do very little to alter the near-term course of the energy transition. Those decisions are being made elsewhere: in national legislatures, in boardrooms, around kitchen tables. And while the US and Gulf countries continue to pursue a fossil-centric vision of growth, China is sticking to its strategy of dominating clean energy tech and betting that economics will continue to shift in its favor. That’s the contest that matters most.

The outcome will take different amounts of time to play out in different countries. But even if COP delegates can’t quite bring themselves to sign off on a fossil fuel death warrant, there’s little doubt that big changes are already on their way.