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Record-breaking US govt shutdown will cast long shadow

Updated Nov 14, 2025, 5:16am EST
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Donald Trump signing the bill ending the shutdown
Kevin Lamarque/Reuters

The longest government shutdown in US history may be over — but its economic fallout is still coming into focus.

At least $11 billion in real GDP will be gone for good, according to the Congressional Budget Office. And key economic data, including employment and inflation numbers for October, will likely never be released.

The latter means “we’re flying with a blurry windshield a little longer,” economist Guy Berger said.

That’s a problem for the Federal Reserve, which must decide next month whether the job market is declining fast enough to cut interest rates.

“This is not just academic,” Michael Strain of the American Enterprise Institute said. “There are real stakes here.”

He added that the data that is released may be questionable, because government workers will be attempting to collect weeks-old information: “You’re going to get lower-quality data as a result.”

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