The News
US President-elect Donald Trump’s impending return to office is already shifting global geopolitics.
In a recent phone call, Trump warned Russian President Vladimir Putin not to escalate his war in Ukraine, reminding the Kremlin of the substantial US military presence in Europe, The Washington Post reported. The Kremlin, however, denied the conversation took place, describing the media reports as “pure fiction,” while Kyiv said it had not been informed of the call and doubted it took place, Politico reported.
Trump also assured Palestinian officials that he would work to end the war in Gaza, while Taiwan and the Philippines — locked in separate standoffs with China — are looking to increase purchases of US defense equipment.
SIGNALS
Trump’s foreign policy may include deterring rivals and transactionality with allies
Trump’s foreign policy is expected to focus on “building deterrence against foreign rivals while favoring transactional policies with US allies,” The Wall Street Journal noted, bringing back his first-term approach of “peace through strength.” But a realignment of American diplomacy toward authoritarian leaders is also on the cards, The Associated Press added. A lot will depend on who ends up in charge of national security, conservative outlet The Free Press reported: “I think there’s a new inner circle around Trump that is pushing him toward allowing Putin, Xi Jinping, and Iran to kind of do whatever they want to do, into a new isolationist approach,” said a Republican national security strategist.
Unclear how Trump intends to end the war in Ukraine
Uncertainty remains around how Trump will approach Russia’s war in Ukraine, The Washington Post reported, as he has vowed to end it quickly, but without clarifying how he plans to do so. The Kremlin congratulated Trump after his reelection and repeatedly said it was willing to discuss the conflict with the West, but that it wouldn’t alter its demands. Meanwhile, the mood in Ukraine has turned “bleak,” Reuters added, as President Volodymyr Zelenskyy expressed worries a swift end to the conflict would mean making significant concessions to Russia. Still, Kyiv is taking precautionary steps to be in a strong position ahead of possible negotiations, including by securing more potent weapons and a NATO invitation before the end of the Biden administration.
Diplomats fear Trump’s capricious nature
For those watching from abroad, the development of Trump’s foreign policy is an “all-consuming preoccupation,” The Guardian’s diplomatic editor noted. “The sheer unpredictability of Trump’s caprice, and his faith in his quixotic charisma, made it hard for diplomats to operate,” he wrote. These concerns are in the spotlight as the annual UN climate summit kicks off, CNN added. Trump has taken a clear stance against climate agreements, which could dramatically upend any international effort: “The US has more power than any other country to fund climate change action in the developing world,” the outlet wrote. “An ‘America First’ Trump administration is unlikely to be more generous with grants and loans for other countries’ green transition.”