The News
Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman led a call for immediate ceasefires in Gaza and Lebanon at a joint meeting of the Arab League and Organisation of Islamic Cooperation in Riyadh on Monday.
In a joint statement, the Arab and Muslim leaders condemned Israeli’s actions “in the context of the crime of genocide.”
The call followed a decision by Qatar to stop trying to mediate between Hamas and Israel, although Doha has left the door open to future talks.
Many regional leaders had taken a “wait-and-see” approach prior to the US presidential election, The New York Times reported, with many seeing Trump’s win as likely to mean any potential progress on securing a Gaza ceasefire will not come until he takes office in January.
SIGNALS
Israel feels emboldened after Trump’s victory
Donald Trump has said he wants Israel to wind down its war in Gaza, although most Israel officials expect that he will grant them freer reign in the territory. “I encourage [Netanyahu] to get this over with,” Trump said in August, while criticizing Kamala Harris’ efforts to “tie Israel’s hand behind its back.” Israeli politicians have warmly welcomed Trump’s reelection, with at least one openly talking about the potential of annexing the West Bank after Trump returns to the White House. Even so, Trump and Netanyahu had a stormy relationship during the president-elect’s first term in office, with Trump reportedly accusing the Israeli leader of disloyalty.
Trump administration may seek to expand Abraham Accords
Trump had said he would prioritize expanding the Abraham Accords, which normalized relations between Israel and some Arab states during his first term as US president. Once back in office, the president-elect is expected to revive a plan for a Saudi-Israel peace deal, including a strengthened defense agreement with Riyadh in exchange for the resumption of diplomacy with Tel Aviv. Saudi officials, however, have said a deal is “off the table” until there is “a resolution to Palestinian statehood.” One expert told Breaking Defense that discussions of Israeli normalization are “toxic” in the Arab world, adding that Riyadh would be taking a significant risk by signing a deal at a time when “images of death and destruction in Palestine are livestreaming 24/7.”
Israel sees pathway in Lebanon ceasefire talks
Despite the overall regional uncertainty, Israel’s foreign minister said Monday there was “certain progress” in negotiations for a ceasefire in Lebanon, although he added that challenges remain as to how it might be enforced. A Hezbollah official, however, told a news conference that while there is “great movement between Washington, and Moscow, and Tehran and a number of capitals,” toward a deal, “we are still in the phase of testing the waters.” Russia may be poised to take a more active part in talks, with an Israeli official telling The Times of Israel that an Israeli delegation to Moscow had discussed the Kremlin’s role in ensuring weapons are not transported through Syria to Hezbollah.