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Global Hot List: A day of elections around the world

Updated Oct 29, 2024, 4:59pm EDT
Al Lucca/Semafor
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The News

Welcome to the Global Hot List, our subjective, dynamic ranking of the races and political developments you should be paying attention to right now, compiled by world elections expert Brad Glasser.

This week the Hot List takes a look at a day full of voting across the Earth. Sunday, October 27th saw nationwide elections held in at least 7 different countries. Plus, Saturday’s elections in Georgia and Australia.

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The List

1. Japan — Worse than expected

The Liberal Democratic Party lost its majority in historic fashion following Japan’s snap legislative election, setting up a term of political chaos for the country. Shigeru Ishiba, a prime minister who took office just a month ago after more than a decade of trying for the job, ended up losing 70 seats for his party in the LDP’s second-worst result ever. Now Ishiba will turn his focus to securing a weak grip on power, as the possibility of the first opposition-led government since 2009 has begun to emerge. It’s still likely the LDP will hold on in coalition talks, given the conservative landscape of parliament, but these are historic days for Japan.

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2. Brazil – Party troubles

President Lula’s Workers’ Party suffered stark erosion in Brazilian municipal elections. The PT fell to 9th place in overall mayors won, and another party, the PSD, rose to become the largest single force. Brazil overall experienced a right-wing shift, but Bolsonaro-backed candidates specifically struggled in the second round, and his party “fared worse than expected” with losses in significant contests like Fortaleza and Belo Horizonte. São Paulo, however, stood out for the right, with the Bolsonaro-endorsed incumbent Ricardo Nunes winning by more than 20 points over left-wing, Lula-supported challenger Guilherme Boulos — even if the former president’s support for Nunes was “tepid,” according to Reuters.

3. Georgia – Russia spiral

International eyes are on Georgia as the country’s ruling party claims a win, while the opposition decries Russian-aided election fraud. The Central Election Commission claimed the Georgian Dream party had won legislative elections with 54% of the vote, but the opposition has slammed the vote as “stolen,” and described GD’s actions as a “constitutional coup.” According to Georgia’s former EU ambassador, the election commission is “fully in the hands of the ruling party.”

4. Uruguay – Complete the cycle

Uruguay’s presidential election saw a decisive shift to the left, though a run-off still remains. Winning 46% of valid votes in the first round, the center-left Broad Front challenger Yamandu Orsi is favored against his conservative challenger in the run-off according to polls, though the election is still a month away. Orsi’s victory would complete a cycle of victories for left-of-center candidates in South America, even as the election of the small-government libertarian Javier Milei began to unravel the trend last year. Alongside the first round vote, a referendum on police night raids was held, but was invalidated due to turnout.

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5. Chile – Fall of communism

Santiago’s communist party mayor lost in a landslide. Iraci Hassler Jacob, a member of the Communist Party of Chile elected on a wave of momentum for Chile’s left in 2021, was ousted by competitor Mario Desbordes, the former Chilean Minister of Defense. Chile’s left lost ground overall in comparison to the last cycle, in a dynamic that progressives will hope to reverse in time for next year’s general elections, where conservative or far-right candidates loom with significant support in early polling.

6. Uzbekistan – ‘No real opposition’

Uzbekistan has been noted for its liberalization in recent years, but political opposition is still largely absent from the democratic process. Parties running in the recent legislative elections were all more-or-less aligned with the president, though the country has opened in some ways since the death of former leader Islam Karimov, widely recognized as a dictator. While Uzbekistan is still repressive, and current president Shavkat Mirziyoyev “retains a tight grip on power,” the nation has witnessed an “emergence of some independent news media” in recent years.

7. Bulgaria – Go to eight

One, two, three, four, five, six, seven snap elections in three years have not resolved Bulgaria’s political crisis, with the latest vote forecasting more deadlock. Could an eighth vote be in the cards? Bulgaria’s legislative election saw support for parties hardly budging compared to last June’s results. There was at least one new development, however: One far-right party traded places in parliament with another. The “Morality, Unity and Honour” party will enter for the first time, while another party, “Greatness,” will lose its seats after coming short by just 25 votes.

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8. Australia – Polling fake-out

Despite prognostications of a Labor resurgence, Australia’s Liberals reclaimed the state government in Queensland. Final polls showed Labor closing the gap, but actual results put the Liberal National Party 10 points ahead, after a campaign that focused on crime and social issues. After sweeping the entire mainland in preceding years, the Australian Labor Party has begun to recede, and Queensland’s vote marks the second flip this year following the victory of the Country Liberal Party in the Northern Territory. Nationally, the Labor Party will also take the results as a sign to worry.

9. Lithuania – Best ever

The center-left made a comeback in Lithuania’s election, nearly reaching a majority in parliament. The Social Democrats seem likely to govern, as allies including greens are expected to round out support for party leader Vilija Blinkeviciute to take office as prime minister. Election results saw the Social Democrats take their highest vote share since 2004, and their best ever by share of seats won.

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