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Semafor Signals

Latino vote in limelight following Trump rally speaker row

Oct 29, 2024, 3:59pm EDT
politicsNorth America
Donald Trump attends a Latino American political forum.
Marco Bello/Reuters
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The News

Former US President Donald Trump is no stranger to racial controversy, but a speaker at his weekend rally in New York — a comedian who called Puerto Rico a “floating island of garbage” — has put Republicans on damage control for fear of losing support in a crucial voting bloc just days before the Nov. 5 election.

The race between Kamala Harris and Trump is tied, and all eyes are on key swing states like Pennsylvania and Arizona, both of which have sizable Latino populations whose decision on the day could, in turn, decide who wins the White House.

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Trump has gained serious ground with Hispanic voters this cycle — a shift that some experts argue may reflect the broader trends in voters’ gender and educational history.

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SIGNALS

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Trump has made significant gains with Latino voters — particularly young men

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Sources:  
NBC News, The Miami Herald

Trump has made significant gains with Latino voters, increasing his margin of support in the demographic by 9 percentage points since the 2016 election, according to one recent poll, while Democrats have seen their support dwindle even more. The shift may reflect the more prominent gender and educational gap among voters: 47% of Latino men — a group that has increasingly opted for blue-collar jobs — now support Trump, compared to Harris’ 26-point lead with Latina women — who are more likely to have college degrees — according to NBC News polling and analysis. Identity may also be at play, however: Some Latino voters believe the “best way to be accepted as Americans is to vote for Trump,” a Latin American and Latino Studies academic told The Miami Herald.

Big-name endorsements could galvanize swing state Latinos

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Sources:  
City & State Pennsylvania, The Washington Post

Almost immediately after the Madison Square Garden rally, Puerto Rican stars Ricky Martin and Bad Bunny publicly endorsed Harris and criticized Trump for his stance toward the island as president. In Pennsylvania — perhaps the most critical swing state — local Democrats are hoping that those endorsements and the rally are “the last straw” that brings undecided Hispanic voters over to cast their ballot for Harris, local news outlet City & State Pennsylvania reported. Some Democratic consultants have even likened Bad Bunny’s Harris endorsement to a “game-over moment,” The Washington Post wrote, because of his particular influence with young Latino men — a demographic that the Harris campaign has struggled to appeal to.

Spanish-speaking voters may be particularly susceptible to false election information

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Sources:  
The Washington Post, The New York Times

Some Latino voters in the US who favor Spanish-language media may find themselves consuming more “unchecked conspiracy theories that align more with their cultural histories than current American reality,” The Washington Post wrote. Among the false claims on some right-wing Spanish media are stories about Harris being a Marxist — a claim that could fuel distrust in her ability to govern among Cuban and Venezuelan Americans, many of whom fled socialist regimes themselves or have family who did. Latino voting-rights activists told The New York Times that such material is “more widespread, sophisticated and complex than ever,” a threat made more pervasive because US-based social media platforms tend to be slower than usual in taking down non-English false content.

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