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Lula’s win is a blow for the Trump White House

Oct 26, 2026, 7:14am EDT
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Brazilian presidential candidate Flavio Bolsonaro after losing the presidential election in Brazil, Oct. 25, 2026
Adriano Machado/Reuters

Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva’s reelection could reshape geopolitics for years to come. Challenger Flávio Bolsonaro vowed to pursue closer ties with the Trump administration if elected and had looked set to confirm a regional conservative tilt.

Instead, Lula’s victory means already tense relations with neighbors, including Argentina, are likely to worsen, while the result is also expected to be a boost to Beijing at a time when Washington is pushing to become the region’s hegemonic power: Beijing pledged to deepen its relationship with Latin America’s biggest economy after the result was announced. Meanwhile, Lula will play a leading global role in climate change mitigation; deforestation of the Brazilian Amazon dropped by a record 42% in the year to July.

A chart showing Brazilian exports to the US and China.
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