House Democrats are making a play for a red seat in Kansas, but Republicans are competitive in a California seat — and both are releasing polling to back it up.
Democrat Don Coover is down by three points against incumbent Republican Rep. Derek Schmidt, within the 3.9% margin of error, according to Democratic polling conducted in mid-October and shared with Semafor.
In another warning sign for Republicans, Kansas’ Democratic gubernatorial nominee Cindy Holscher and Senate nominee Adam Hamilton both narrowly led their Republican counterparts, within the poll’s margin of error. The survey showed Trump’s approval rating is underwater by 11 points in Schmidt’s district, which he won by 20 points in 2024.
Outgoing Democratic Gov. Laura Kelly won the district in 2018 and also in 2022, when Schmidt ran for governor. The DCCC named it one of the “districts in play” this month, meaning it could be on the outskirts of the House battlefield. Over in California’s 48th Congressional District, Republicans are releasing polling from mid-October that shows their nominee Jim Desmond trailing Democrat Marni Von Wilpert by just three points, with a 4.9% margin of error.
The San Diego and Riverside County-area district was redrawn by California Democrats this cycle in retaliation for GOP gerrymandering elsewhere, but Republicans think they can keep the seat competitive. Kamala Harris won the seat by about 3 points in 2024.