Brazil’s energy path could change less than environmentalists expect if right-wing candidate Flávio Bolsonaro wins Sunday’s presidential election. President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva’s administration has celebrated new oil discovery and exploration efforts, marking a difference from some regional leftist allies. Lawmakers from the candidates’ respective parties also found much agreement when debating a critical minerals law that centers domestic value addition earlier this year.
One area where the pair may diverge, however, is on the Amazon: Brazilian economist Monica de Bolle said the enforcement of existing environmental laws could weaken under Bolsonaro, whose father presided over the loss of more than 11 million acres of rainforest.
A nearly $3 billion takeover of a Brazilian rare earth mining firm by USA Rare Earths—which the US government holds a stake in— also hangs in the balance: Lula opposed it, and will likely try to use a new law to change the terms of the deal if he remains in office, according to de Bolle.