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Breach of Paris Agreement global warming level ‘inevitable,’ UN says

Oct 21, 2026, 7:20am EDT
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The Tefe lake in Brazil suffering severe drought.
Bruno Kelly/Reutrs

Efforts to cap global temperature rises have largely failed and a breach of the Paris Agreement’s limit of 1.5℃ is now “inevitable,” the UN said.

Overall global warming is now likely to be between 2.6℃ and 2.8℃ by the end of the century, the UN Environment Programme predicted.

It warned that the best-case scenario — in which humanity overshoots its target but ultimately reverts to it — would require cuts to global emissions of about 45% by 2035; current national plans, even if fully implemented, would only lead to reductions of up to 15%.

Yet, UNEP argued, “countries can still limit peak warming, shorten the duration of overshoot, and keep the goals of the Paris Agreement within reach.”

A chart showing per capita CO2 emissions for several countries.
AD