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The simple reality of the two-week US government shutdown is that neither side is likely to move until Donald Trump gets more involved.
Trump’s unmatched sway over his party in Congress has Democrats and even some Republicans hoping — or perhaps wishing — for the president to intervene more directly in the 15-day impasse over funding the government. Absent that, lawmakers and aides forecast the standoff going into November, potentially breaking the record for longest shutdown in history.
Sen. Catherine Cortez Masto, D-Nev., one of three in her party who supports the House-passed stopgap funding bill, said she doesn’t “think that Republican leadership will make a move without the president weighing in.” If he does get into negotiations, Trump could emerge from it all as a “hero,” said Sen. Peter Welch, D-Vt.
Democrats are betting Trump shares their goal of avoiding health insurance premium increases next year, seeing him as perhaps more amenable to a deal than Senate Majority Leader John Thune or House Speaker Mike Johnson. Republicans know Trump likes to strike deals, and some privately worry he might cut one with Democrats if left to his own devices — perhaps one they do not like.
“If he doesn’t get involved, it won’t get resolved,” Welch said. “In the House in particular, but in the Senate as well, people on the Republican side won’t move unless they get the blessing of Trump.”
But Democrats might be disappointed: White House officials say Trump won’t work with them. The administration is maintaining that Republicans provided the only stopgap funding bill that will get a vote, viewing the reopening of the government as non-negotiable.
“Democrats have this theory that the president is going to roll over his own congressional leadership and save them from themselves,” a senior White House official told Semafor. “That theory is false.”
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The shutdown stalemate is an indictment of Congress, where a smattering of bipartisan discussions have run aground and Democrats have blocked the House’s stopgap bill nine times so far. Thune and Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer are too deep in their respective partisan foxholes to cut any deal.
Underpinning that dynamic is Republicans’ overwhelming deference to Trump, on everything from his nominees to his tax cuts agenda, and the tremendous pressure Democrats are under to resist him at every turn. It’s a recipe for inertia.
Meanwhile, many past dealmakers have left the Hill, leaving Congress’ middle hollower than it’s been in a generation. Efforts by moderates to put together a bipartisan Senate gang to get out of the shutdown have stalled as most members seek to support party leaders and wait out the other side, according to multiple sources.
Trump’s involvement “would be helpful. There are members in both the House and the Senate who look to him for guidance,” said Sen. Susan Collins, R-Maine, one of several members trying to find a way out of the shutdown.
Trump directly negotiated some deals with Schumer and then-House Democratic leader Nancy Pelosi during his first term, including on spending and coronavirus aid. But Republicans say they don’t need him right now.
“He can do what he wants, but I don’t think it’s his responsibility,” said Sen. John Cornyn, R-Texas.
Democrats “know that he’s a dealmaker,” Cornyn added. “He wisely is letting Congress duke that out. There’s going to be a role for everybody to play once we reopen.”
But it’s hard to see the breaking point absent Trump’s involvement, save for the slim possibility of a bipartisan group of senators hashing out an agreement. Republican hopes that Democrats would cave have not panned out; they seem more dug in two weeks into the shutdown than they did at the start.
The senior White House official suggested that Democrats go to federal employee unions and “explain that they’re prepared for [government workers] to go without pay for another five weeks.”
In other words, Trump’s advisers are prepared for a long shutdown.
Trump didn’t sound ready to deal on Wednesday, calling Schumer a “loser” — albeit “an intelligent one. But he’s losing IQ points over time.”
In a Capitol devoid of tourist traffic as well as the House Republican majority, the mood is worsening by the day and the Senate is set to leave for another weekend.
The Republicans who are open to a compromise to end the shutdown “are concerned that if they don’t have [Trump’s] blessing, that whatever they do could backfire,” contended Sen. Dick Durbin, D-Ill.
“Republicans often look to the president for what direction to go. But we’re pretty united,” said Sen. Jerry Moran, R-Kan. “At the moment I’m interested in giving Sen. Thune the opportunity to lead us in a direction that solves the problem.”
White House officials who don’t see much to do other than manage the shutdown are giving Office of Management and Budget director Russ Vought free rein to implement cuts and slash jobs.
Vought said Wednesday that the administration is likely to fire “north of 10,000” federal workers, though a federal judge just temporarily paused the layoffs.
Trump is turning his focus to big foreign policy initiatives, like the peace agreement between Israel and Hamas that prompted a 24-hour trip to the Middle East on Monday.
On Friday, the president will host Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy, though another official suggested that Trump may be more focused on the shutdown in the days ahead of that visit.
“We’re the ones that pass budgets,” said Sen. Rick Scott, R-Fla. “The president is relying on us to do our job.”
Room for Disagreement
Asked by Semafor whether he would ever advise the president to become more involved in the shutdown talks, Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said: “Trump’s very involved; it’s these maniacs who are not.
“I have Democratic senators in for breakfast all the time, and I have advised these moderate senators: You could be a hero here,” Bessent added. “If you want to negotiate, reopen the government.”
Burgess and Shelby’s View
Democrats are right that Trump likes a deal and has expressed openness to reviving the health care subsidies, but they are underestimating how tightly Thune and Johnson have coordinated with the president.
Their hopes that Trump might undercut GOP congressional leaders are not out of the realm of possibility, but the president has shown no interest yet in personally defusing the shutdown.
Still, Democrats aren’t going to move in the end without a clearer sense of where Trump stands. They are concerned that even if they get an agreement to pass health care subsidies in the Senate, the House could kill it — or Trump could decline to sign it.
Unless Democrats completely cave, Trump will have to play an integral role in reopening the government. This GOP-run Congress won’t make a move without him.
Notable
- Capitol Police officers are slated to miss their first full paychecks as the government shutdown continues, NBC News reported.
Eleanor Mueller contributed.