Borrowing costs are likely to remain elevated across the US and Europe for the foreseeable future, economists said. Experts surveyed by The Wall Street Journal projected that US 10-year Treasury yields would decline only slightly from current levels to end the year at 5.1%, and would dip to around 4.8% 12 months later: “It has been a sea change in the fundamentals underlying the fixed-income market and the economy,” one told the Journal. A key factor, as the economist David Skilling wrote in a recent note, has been that “state capitalism … is a much more capex-intensive regime” just as “the global economy is moving from a savings-abundant environment towards one in which available capital is becoming scarcer.”
