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Global oil buffers weaken as global conflict expands

Oct 12, 2026, 7:07am EDT
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Oil trucks arriving from Iraq in Baniyas, Syria in May, 2026.
Mahmoud Hassano/Reuters

Economists and executives warned of thinning global oil buffers, with conflicts in the Middle East and Ukraine piling pressure on the energy supply chain. Goldman Sachs over the weekend raised its forecast for average year-end oil prices, warning of “downside risks to supply, low stocks, and the high sensitivity of interest rates to oil prices,” while the CEOs of major producer Saudi Aramco and trading giant Vitol respectively warned that stockpiles were “scarily thin” and that “there aren’t any more inventories to drain.”

Though efforts to adapt by building new pipelines and trade routes are underway, countries such as Iran are “not likely to stand by,” experts at the Washington-based Center for Strategic and International Studies warned.

Data for the US SPI.
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