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If Donald Trump wins, he could have a world of new friends

Updated Oct 11, 2024, 5:04am EDT
Jose Antonio Kast, former Chilean Presidential candidate, speaks during the Conservative Political Action Conference
Toya Sarno Jordan/Reuters
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The News

Donald Trump still gushes regularly about Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban, one of a handful of prominent world leaders who he built relationships with in and out of office based on a shared populist-right worldview.

Trump may have some new friends joining that informal alliance. Should the former president win in November, there are signs that he could soon be overlooking a global political landscape populated by spiritually similar governments across multiple continents. In many cases, the relevant leaders have been termed by news sources as the “Trump” of their country.

Now, polls indicate a reversal in fortunes for many of the center-left and left-wing parties who were in power either when Trump was in office or took over afterwards. Conservative forces — in Canada, Australia, and much of South America — are poised to sweep across upcoming elections with a potential wave. Their most compelling opportunity will be on the ballot in just one month, as a new US administration headed by Trump himself could form the nucleus of an empowered and brazen international right.

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The best-case scenario for the global right is plausible, and would entail one of the most right-wing periods in decades.

In Canada, Conservative leader Pierre Poilievre has railed against “globalists” and drawn comparisons to Trump himself — or JD Vance. Vox described Poilievre as an emblem of Canada’s “polite Trumpism.” Under Poilievre, the Tories have ascended to leads of 20 points or more in polling. An election looms next year.

Australia faces a somewhat similar situation. The leader of the opposition Liberal/National Party, Peter Dutton, is noted as a standard-bearer for the Australian hard-right, and has called for even stricter controls on immigration. Unlike the situation in Canada, polls for Australia’s Labor government aren’t as bleak, but their honeymoon is over and 2025’s legislative election will be a serious fight.

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Latin America could also see stark shifts. After electing a left-wing government in Chile, polls now foresee backlash, with a conservative candidate leading. Nationalist authoritarians in the form of the Republican Party, which defends the legacy of the country’s Pinochet dictatorship, will make another run in 2025. Their candidate, Jose Antonio Kast, has been labeled the “Chilean Trump.”

Meanwhile, the “Argentine Trump,” Milei, is already perched in the presidency of Argentina. The “Brazilian Trump,” Bolsonaro, is barred from running in 2026, but is likely to make his influence felt through an endorsement. Rafael Lopez Aliaga won election as mayor of Lima in 2022 and is known as “Peru’s Bolsonaro,” which by transitive property makes him the Peruvian Trump. He is one of several names in the mix to be the next president.

Multiple candidates for president in Colombia will range from Trump-friendly to Trump fans, aiming to take advantage of discontent towards Gustavo Petro, the former Marxist guerilla elected president in historic fashion back in 2022.

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Trump could see more friendly faces in Europe this time around, too. Marine Le Pen still has an opportunity to win in 2027, according to surveys. Nationalist parties across the EU have reached a zenith of power and influence in the modern political era, with strong activity in most countries. Red lines around governing with far-right forces as part of a coalition have increasingly dimmed.

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Brad’s View

Global waves are not a guarantee in politics, but they do happen. In the early 2020s, buoyed by a desire for security and stability throughout the pandemic, left-of-center governments won elections around the world. Latin America, the Anglosphere, and Germany all saw left-wing or center-left victories over the course of just a few years.

None of this is written in stone, though. The center could very well hold back a hardline right-wing wave, given structural challenges for this brand of politics — it’s often just not popular. However, in a world of struggling incumbents, this right will look to ascend on a crest of anger. Whether or not the wave ultimately falls short, the world should brace itself for this one — the conditions are all there.

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Room for Disagreement

The more traditional center-right could also make a comeback. In Germany, the CDU is at the forefront of polls, and despite a shift to the right, still intends to exclude a surging AfD party from coalition negotiations. The front-running candidate in Chile is Evelyn Matthei, known as a moderate conservative. In Brazil, the center-right had a good night in recent local elections.

Mainstream conservatives face a siren call of extremism, though, and a strong center-right does not necessarily preclude a robust far-right. Even where center-right parties are leading, they are increasingly tempted to work with the far-right, blurring lines of what was previously considered acceptable in political rhetoric or policy.

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Notable

Yes, there is a “Slovenian Trump” (besides Melania). Former Slovenian prime minister Janez Jansa acquired the label for a hard-right political profile and his support of Trump’s election fraud claims.

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