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YAOUNDE, Cameroon — The non-appearance of Cameroon’s nonagenarian president in public for the last 30 days has pushed the Central African country into a state of uncertainty and speculation.
President Paul Biya, 91, in power since 1982, was expected in New York last month for the UN General Assembly but failed to show up. He also did not appear at last week’s La Francophonie summit in France.
Across Cameroon, these two significant no-shows have stoked speculation about Biya’s health and whereabouts. The government on Tuesday said he was in good health but did not disclose his location.
Cameroonians have not heard officially from their head of state since Sept. 8, when the presidency announced that Biya and wife Chantal had left Beijing after participating in the FOCAC China-Africa summit (pictured).
Since then, Biya’s whereabouts remains a mystery. The president typically spends a significant portion of the year overseas. Biya, fondly nicknamed the “Lion Man” has a strong liking for roaming abroad, usually on “brief private stay”, as his cabinet terms it. His preferred getaway is a hotel in Geneva.
In 2018, the Organised Crime and Corruption Reporting Project estimated that Biya had spent 15% of his presidency out of the country.
But his latest absence has sparked fears from Cameroonians across the country and on social media that he is dead — something the government referred to as “pure fantasy.”
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Cameroon is currently dealing with a drawn-out armed separatist conflict in its English-speaking regions and a counterinsurgency operation against Boko Haram in the north. Analysts think a power struggle in Biya’s absence would put the country at a high risk of undergoing a polycrisis driven by geostrategic concerns in early 2025.
Joe Chafetz, intelligence analyst at political risk company Global Guardian, told Semafor Africa that Cameroon is the last country of five which qualify as high risk. “Other countries like Burkina Faso, Mali and Niger have already been destabilised,” Chafetz said, citing military, commercial and political presence of foreign powers in Cameroon as threat factors.

Amindeh’s view
Biya’s reticence to engage in public speaking and the silence which surrounds him frustrates many Cameroonians. His supporters argue that his behaviour is a sign of maturity and wisdom but the uncertainty it creates can be disruptive. Just this week, Cameroonian dollar bonds dropped for days running and were among the worst performers on Wednesday as speculation about the president’s health triggered fears of political unrest.
The fact that there is no clear succession plan is another source of concern. His immediate constitutional successor, Senate President Marcel Niat Njifenji, 89, makes regular hospital visits and can barely stand on his own.
Biya’s patronage system, which he has used to maintain a firm grip on power for nearly 42 years, would make transition difficult.

Room for Disagreement
The president’s chief of cabinet, Samuel Mvondo Ayolo, believes Cameroonians are unnecessarily apprehensive about the president’s health and whereabouts as he works from wherever he is.
He said Biya is in an “excellent state of health” and has not stopped exercising his duties from his Geneva base since leaving Beijing on Sept. 8.

The View From Maroua, Far North Cameroon
“Drawn-out uncertainty could weaken the confidence of local and foreign businesses, disrupting expansion and investment plans,” said Ferdinand Haiwang Djamo, policy analyst at the Cameroon Economic Policy Institute (CEPI). “Some companies with close ties to the current government could be weakened, particularly if internal rivalries emerge.”
Djamo predicted that any potential power tussle could derail economic reforms, reduce foreign direct investment, and drive capital flight.
“The unequal distribution of wealth is a source of discontent in Cameroon. If succession is not managed in a transparent and inclusive manner, this could exacerbate social tensions – disrupting the national economy,” Djamo told Semafor Africa.