AI export growth will offset trade disruptions this year, WTO says

Global trade in goods is expected to grow by 3.9% this year, The World Trade Organization said Thursday, as conflict-fueled disruptions in the Middle East are more than offset by the booming AI trade.

AI-related goods and materials accounted for 47% of growth in the first half of 2026 while making up only 15% of trade, the WTO said, boosting cross-border commerce despite declines in shipments of oil, natural gas, and fertilizer.

Global trade has been “shaped by two opposing forces: a Middle East conflict affecting services as much as goods, and an exceptionally strong wave of investment in AI infrastructure,” the WTO’s chief economist said. “So far, the second force has outweighed the first.”