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US Fed minutes show bank is unlikely to hike rates in October

Oct 7, 2026, 6:41pm EDT
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US Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh
Evan Vucci/Reuters

The market odds of a rate increase at the US Federal Reserve’s October meeting sank Wednesday after the central bank published minutes of its September meeting, though Fed watchers priced in a December hike.

While the Fed’s policymakers voted unanimously to raise interest rates last month, they were divided over the rationale for doing so.

Some sought to head off demand-driven inflation while others wanted to curb energy and AI-driven price shocks.

Last week’s cooler-than-expected jobs report, along with a rise in bond yields, bolstered the case for a pause: “The long end of the yield curve has already gone up, and that’s the end that matters to the economy,” a former Philadelphia Fed president told The Wall Street Journal.

Chart of the probability of outcomes for October US Federal Reserve meeting
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