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Senate Republicans are departing Washington to defend their majority — and many are carrying with them real fear that the party didn’t do enough to address constituents’ economic concerns ahead of the impending election.
Despite passing a huge tax cut law last year, Republicans are fretting they have not demonstrated to voters that they are tackling high gas prices, stubborn inflation, and sky-high interest rates that threaten their House and Senate majorities come November.
“If you’re not worried, you’re living in a cave,” Sen. Jim Justice, R-W.Va., told Semafor. “There’s no question that there’s people out there that are hurting.”
Justice said West Virginians love President Donald Trump but people in the Mountain State “really probably feel like Congress deserves what they get — a 14 percent approval rate.” And if that’s the case in a conservative state like West Virginia, it explains why Republicans are praying Trump can help turn out his voters to support the congressional GOP in the midterms.
“If you’re sitting home without a job and you can’t make ends meet … at some point in time, what do you decide? You decide, ‘Well, I can’t stand to vote for those Democrats because they got us all in this mess. But I’m just not going to vote,’” Justice said. “If you lose your base, you’re in trouble, and then you’re going to have a bad outcome.”
The unease with the economy — and voters’ perception of it — is widespread across the Republican Party. Some House members desperately want the body to return to Washington to address fuel prices. And many GOP senators think the party made a mistake by not staying and working on cost-of-living issues deeper into the fall.
Battleground campaigns are largely being fought on cost-of-living and economic issues — the same challenges that cost Democrats the 2024 election just two years ago.
“If we had done enough, our constituents wouldn’t be continuing to raise it, and it wouldn’t be the No. 1 thing that everyone’s campaign is talking about,” Sen. Lisa Murkowski, R-Alaska, told Semafor.
Her colleague, Sen. Dan Sullivan, R-Alaska, is in the fight of his political life, as are Republican Sens. Susan Collins of Maine and Jon Husted of Ohio and GOP candidates in open seats in Iowa, North Carolina, and Texas. Democrats are also targeting Sens. Roger Marshall of Kansas, Darline Graham of South Carolina, and Cindy Hyde-Smith of Mississippi — all of whom are red state incumbents.
Republican leadership tried to address concerns about utility costs with a data center bill from Husted, but Democrats blocked it because its requirements were voluntary. And Sen. Rand Paul, R-Ky., prevented Marshall’s medical price transparency bill from getting a vote.
“Ending Joe Biden’s inflation crisis has been a Day One priority for President Trump,” White House spokesperson Olivia Wales told Semafor, pointing to the tax bill as well as progress on private-sector jobs, manufacturing investments, and beef, drug, and insurance prices. He “remains laser-focused on delivering even more economic relief for American families,” she added.
But both Marshall and Husted told Semafor that they wanted Republicans to do more. Husted said voters “rightly always want us to do all we can to make their lives more affordable and that’s exactly what we should do.”
Sen. John Kennedy, R-La., said that he wanted the Senate to stay longer, “but there are a lot of folks that are in tight campaigns and want to go back home and campaign, and I understand that.” And while there is broad recognition of the economic challenges facing the country, there isn’t exactly agreement on what to do about them.
“Everyone’s looking for the magic bullet. There’s no one magic bullet here. I mean, yes, the war in Iran is not helping at all. And in my view, that’s the first piece. But there is so much more to this,” Murkowski said.
Republicans are increasingly calling for an end to the war, a break with Trump that underscores the conflict’s unpopularity. Sen. John Cornyn, R-Texas, who was defeated in his primary by Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton, said the “national mood is not great for us.” Paxton is struggling to defeat his Democratic opponent James Talarico in a state that rarely votes for Democrats.
“Foreign wars don’t typically motivate people to want to go vote. And kitchen table issues do,” Cornyn said. “And I certainly think the president hasn’t been focused on that and has kind of deprecated the suggestion that we spent more time and effort to focus on it. So, that’s not going to help.”
Know More
Trump signed Republicans’ signature legislation last summer, which preserved many tax cuts and enacted some new ones on things like overtime pay, tipped wages, and car interest.
“Just think what we did to put money in the pockets of working men and women,” said Senate Finance Committee Chair Chuck Grassley of Iowa, home of another tough race.
Nonetheless, Grassley is leaning on Trump to help lower fuel prices, the most visible sign of high prices.
Consumer confidence in September sank to its lowest level since 2014, The Conference Board said Tuesday, as higher oil and gas prices eclipsed more positive economic indicators.
The AI buildout, higher tariffs, and the Iran war together “had the effect of raising the prices that consumers and businesses face,” Federal Reserve Gov. Michael Barr told the Detroit Economic Club Tuesday. “While the effects of tariffs may have diminished, high energy prices are still with us — and there is considerable uncertainty about when the conflict driving them may be resolved.”
The House left town two weeks before the Senate after passing bills like the data center legislation, giving lawmakers more time to campaign in their districts.
Since then, some lawmakers in tight races like Rep. Ashley Hinson, R-Iowa, who’s running for Senate, said the House needs to come back to suspend the gas tax and act on diesel prices, among other legislation. Most Republicans are doubtful they’ll return before the midterms, however.
Meanwhile, the White House is pulling out all the stops it can.
Trump will travel to battleground states in coming weeks, chief of staff Susie Wiles recently told GOP senators, in an eleventh-hour bid to bolster the party’s most vulnerable incumbents. He also announced plans this week to spend billions on a steel mill in Iowa and a natural gas facility in Alaska — both states where Republicans are facing tough races for House and Senate.
“I’ve done a very bad job of explaining how good the country is doing,” Trump said Wednesday.
Room for Disagreement
Many Republicans still blame former President Joe Biden for the weak economy.
“People understand that we inherited a house that was on fire,” Marshall said. “We’re all concerned about the cost of gas and groceries back home and I’m doing everything I can to end this war and keep the gas price down.”
Others maintain that things are headed in the right direction.
Sen. Rick Scott, R-Fla., said he met with Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh on Wednesday morning and that White House economic adviser Kevin Hassett also recently spoke to Senate Republicans. Scott described both men as “very upbeat.”
“I think we’re going to continue to see a better economy,” Scott said.
burgess, eleanor, and nicholas’ view
Republicans are facing big problems and they’ve nearly run out of time to address them.
The Iran war, fuel prices, economic sentiment, and Trump’s unpopularity are creating huge headwinds for the party. The tax cut law hasn’t given the GOP an appreciable bump for the election, either. Neither has Trump’s hollow proposal to give $5,000 to Americans after the election.
Republicans still have a favorable Senate map and a growing spending advantage down the stretch. But most think the House is likely lost to the Democrats already.