Africa and Asia are expected to drive a boom in global oil refining capacity by 2030 as countries seek to meet rising demand, reduce reliance on imports, and expand exports, new analysis found. The BloombergNEF projections reverse several years of limited additions and high closure rates as energy supply disruptions caused by the US-Iran war pushed refining margins to record highs and strengthened the case for investment in supply-chain infrastructure.
The outlook found Africa and the Asia-Pacific region would account for 95% of total refining growth, half of which is already operational or under construction. China and India account for more than two thirds of expected global capacity additions in 2026 and 2027, while Africa is forecast to add the equivalent of half the continent’s existing capacity by 2030, led by the expansion of Nigeria’s Dangote refinery. In contrast, markets like Europe and the US face further closures.
