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MOUNT OLIVET, Ky. — Rand Paul might run for president in 2028. It depends on whether the Republican Party still has space for his fellow Kentuckian who now shares the title of Donald Trump’s biggest conservative troublemaker.
“First, we’ve got to see if Thomas Massie will keep his job and get reelected,” Paul said after offering a “maybe” to the 2028 question. For Paul, a libertarian-leaning senator willing to break with the president when most fellow Republicans fall in line, Massie’s ability to withstand a Trump-backed primary foe speaks to his own future.
“We represent the same thing. If people are unhappy with Thomas and he’s unelected, that hurts me personally. But it also hurts the idea of: Is there room in the party?” Paul told Semafor with Massie by his side as the two barnstormed the state this week.
Massie’s reelection represents a last stand for the OG Tea Party Republicans elected in 2010 and 2012. And Massie is nearing victory on a months-long quest to force a vote on releasing the Jeffrey Epstein files, antagonizing the White House.
Their willingness to occasionally serve as a bicameral bulwark of intra-party opposition to Trump has stirred presidential anger toward them.
Massie acknowledged his race will be harder this time around but said his Trump-aligned critics haven’t landed a primary candidate yet because “they’re looking for a unicorn” and are getting “cold feet” in recruiting state Sen. Aaron Reed to run against him.
Massie’s bid marks a new twist in Trump-era purity tests: Eliminating someone so conservative that he’s out of step with the president.
“They’ve taken out incumbents, but those are people who voted to impeach Trump. Those are people that weren’t well known in their district and didn’t have popular appeal. And didn’t have their senior senator [Paul] backing them,” Massie told Semafor.
Paul chuckled “maybe” when asked if he might face the same Trump-backed opposition in 2028, when his Senate term ends. During a half-dozen joint events in Massie’s district this week, the duo faced very little voter duress for voting against Trump or speaking against some of his policies.
“There are very vocal presidential supporters who want complete fidelity. They’re very loud online,” Paul said. “But there’s a lot of people in the community who want a mixture of balance.”
Despite the occasional friction, Paul and Massie both praised Trump as the best president of their lifetimes — but not correct on everything. Massie has pictures of Trump in his ads and even does a decent Trump impression.
“I think a lot of what’s happening to me right now is to keep the other congressmen in the House in line,” Massie said.
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During the Tea Party’s inception, Massie’s late wife told him to turn on the radio and listen to a guy who “sounds like you.” It was Paul.
Massie then drove two hours to a town hall and subsequently organized a fundraiser for Paul, who endorsed Massie in a crowded primary in 2012.
It seemed like the start of a new Republican Party wing organized around their libertarian leanings. Trump changed all that.
Yet Massie’s partnership with Paul could pay off anyway, in a district that hugs the Ohio River and includes the Cincinnati suburbs and tiny hamlets like Mount Olivet.
“Trump’s very popular here. I won’t deny that. But Rand’s numbers are almost identical in terms of your name, ID and popularity. So it’s almost an offsetting endorsement,” Massie said.
Both men have big personalities. Massie wears a debt clock lapel pin and lives off the grid. Paul’s father Ron is a leading figure in the libertarian movement, which Rand channeled into a 2016 presidential campaign that ran into an ascendant Trump.
Massie says he and Paul text once a week or so — not because they don’t want to talk more often, but because they already intuitively know where each other stands. They’ve also built up a foothold in the state legislature by backing like-minded Kentucky Republicans.
One of those Republicans, GOP state Rep. T.J. Roberts, predicted that none of his colleagues would challenge Massie: “They realize that no one’s going to agree with anyone 100% of the time. That’s impossible. We have a word for that: ‘worship.’”
Chris LaCivita, who is leading the effort to defeat Massie, said the congressman’s constituents “know who he really is: A reliable vote with the craziest on the left that defies common sense.”
“Thomas Massie is more at home with the Squad than the MAGA movement and President Trump and hasn’t accomplished a damn thing for constituents other than provide embarrassment. Massie will be fired,” LaCivita said.
Most Massie supporters raised their hands at a banquet hall in Florence when he asked if they’d seen the flag-burning ads that the super PAC MAGA Kentucky is running against him.
Massie told the audience that people have the right to burn their flag on their own property but “if you burn my flag, I’ll kick your ass.”
It was a big applause line.
Room for Disagreement
Massie and Paul got their most pointed question of the day in Cynthiana, Ky., when Mike Fisher, the GOP chair of Harrison County and a candidate for the legislature, asked them to explain some of their votes against Trump.
“We elected them because they’re fiscally responsible. We want that, and that’s what the hardcore base of the Republican Party is looking for. But we’ve added a lot of new folks, and a lot of new folks have come on board with President Trump. So their concern is that they’re voting no against President Trump,” Fisher said. “I’ve got no issue with them.”
Paul’s 2028 View
Paul has teamed with Democrats and a handful of other Republicans to disapprove of Trump’s tariff regime and readily criticizes it. He said whether he pursues another run for higher office has a lot to do with whether the tariffs further hurt the economy.
“Could I win that argument? In an economy going gangbusters, record stock market? I think people aren’t going to listen to that. If the economy struggles with trade and the tariffs appear to be damaging the economy, people might be open to it,” Paul said.
Burgess’s view
It’s clear that Massie’s district is fertile ground for his anti-government message. His stand against the massive Trump-backed pandemic relief bill in 2020 is a popular part of his stump speech. I can’t predict whether Massie might defeat a phantom candidate, but his politics clearly resonate here. Paul’s assistance doesn’t hurt.
For Paul, campaigning to reelect Massie is a clear opportunity to emphasize some of his breaks with Trump while praising some of the president’s other actions, like moving to dismantle the Education Department or slashing foreign aid.
It’ll be a clear contrast with potential presidential primary opponents in 2028, if GOP voters somehow sour on Trump — and an added challenge to his Senate reelection if they don’t.
Notable
- Massie told us earlier this week that Republican leaders have politically threatened Republican supporters of the Epstein files vote.