The News
Republicans used to have their hands full with competitive, divisive Senate primaries. This election season, it’s Democrats’ turn.
The party is confronting an unfamiliar dynamic in its uphill battle to take back the Senate: A half-dozen primaries that are increasingly difficult to control, plus lingering friction and ideological tension between senior Democrats and activists.
Democratic leaders are treading carefully, not yet officially endorsing any candidates and offering only subtle indications of whom they see as stronger general election performers.
Some in the party want the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee and Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer to stay out entirely.
“It’s important that the DSCC leadership not pick favorites … they should stand aside and assume that these candidates and the Minnesota voters are going to figure it out,” said Sen. Tina Smith, D-Minn., who’s retiring and creating an open seat next year.
“They don’t know better than the voters in Minnesota,” she added.
Democratic Rep. Angie Craig and Lt. Gov. Peggy Flanagan are vying to succeed Smith, one of several wide-open primaries that Democrats aren’t used to confronting on such a large scale. One person familiar with the situation pointed to a possible preference among party leaders for the more centrist Craig in Minnesota.
Tough primaries are also underway in Michigan, Iowa, Maine, Texas, and Illinois. Except for deep-blue Illinois, the results of those races could very well determine the majority next year.
“Republicans will face backlash from voters for raising costs on everything from groceries to health care and for ripping away health care coverage, and our focus is winning seats in 2026 to put a stop to the damage Republicans are doing,” said Maeve Coyle, a spokesperson for the DSCC.
While Schumer and DSCC Chair Kirsten Gillibrand avoided internecine fights in Ohio and North Carolina by landing strong candidates — former Sen. Sherrod Brown and former Gov. Roy Cooper — the rest of the landscape is messier.
And after Kamala Harris got their presidential nomination without a primary, plenty of Democrats welcome that messiness.
“I like that we can have a primary, and the party doesn’t just anoint somebody, because that’s what they tried to do with my race,” said Sen. Andy Kim, D-N.J., who steamrolled New Jersey Democrats’ attempt to install Tammy Murphy last year.
Kim is supporting Craig over the more progressive Flanagan but said he’s not leaning on party leaders to join him. Massachusetts Democratic Sens. Elizabeth Warren and Ed Markey support Flanagan, who has sworn off corporate PAC money.
“The DSCC should announce that anyone who’s taken corporate PAC money is not someone who will receive their support,” Warren said. “That’s the place to put the thumb on the scale.”
In Michigan, Democratic leaders’ apparent preference for Rep. Haley Stevens is casting a shadow over the Senate primary. In response, both state Sen. Mallory McMorrow and health policy expert Abdul El-Sayed are running as anti-establishment candidates.
“If DC comes in and spends a lot of money to try and dictate what happens in this primary, I think Democrats are going to lose,” El-Sayed told Semafor.
El-Sayed and McMorrow are also swearing off corporate PAC money, though McMorrow took some in prior races. Stevens isn’t there yet.
Know More
Officially, the DSCC is neutral in every race so far. That doesn’t mean the campaign arm is quiet.
Democrats are openly recruiting Gov. Janet Mills in Maine even after the entry of oysterman Graham Platner and brewer Dan Kleban. Senior Democrats similarly see state Rep. Josh Turek in Iowa as a strong general election candidate in his race against state Sen. Zach Wahls, Des Moines School Board Chair Jackie Norris and veteran Nathan Sage.
These subtle preferences, however, are a far cry from the field-clearing exercises the party conducted in the 2020 cycle. Democrats are hoping the proliferation of candidates injects energy into the moribund party.
It definitely creates an opportunity for individual senators to help shape what the party looks like in 2027, and Bernie Sanders is first in line there.
Americans “want candidates who can stand up to the oligarchs, stand up to a corrupt campaign finance system which is funded by billionaires, and fight for an agenda that works for the working class of this country,” the Vermont independent told Semafor.
Sanders supports Platner and El-Sayed; he said he could imagine getting involved elsewhere.
But Democrats need to make sure races like Michigan don’t get harsh enough to leave the eventual nominee bruised.
“I generally am of the mindset that it helps as long as they’re not really damaging each other,” Kim said. “You can’t really honestly stop it if there’s credible candidates.”
In Texas, Democrats want to exploit a bitter GOP primary between Sen. John Cornyn and state attorney general Ken Paxton, but they now have their own field to tend to. Former Rep. Colin Allred entered the race early, but state Rep. James Talarico, whose Bible-quoting speeches against anti-LGBT laws and gerrymandering went viral, jumped into the race this month and quickly raised $1 million.
Some Democrats think Talarico would be too liberal a candidate in Texas. And Republicans now expect their rivals to burn millions of dollars in a primary.
“The Democrat Senate primary in Texas will be nasty and expensive and is likely to result in a badly damaged nominee for their party,” said Gregg Keller, a spokesman for the super PAC supporting Paxton. “It’s a great development for Republicans and AG Paxton, who will be the clear favorite in the general election.”
The View From Republicans
When they did intervene in primaries more directly, Schumer and the DSCC almost always got their candidates.
Now that Democrats can no longer avoid the sort of internal jostling that has distracted the GOP, there’s a bit of schadenfreude taking hold.
“The era of Chuck Schumer’s primary coronations is over and the result is messy, crowded primaries with candidates desperate to overcome their Party’s historically low approval ratings while appeasing an increasingly radical base,” said Joanna Rodriguez, a spokesperson for the National Republican Senatorial Committee.
Room for Disagreement
Democrats appreciate their leadership’s work in places like Ohio, North Carolina, and New Hampshire, where the Senate primaries are already basically settled.
“I’m in no way criticizing the DSCC for supporting Sen. Brown running or Roy Cooper,” Smith said. “It’s smart in those situations to weigh in, but I think humility is important when you are trying to assess the political realities in states where the voters have a big decision to make.”
Burgess and David’s View
This isn’t quite the Democrats’ Tea Party moment. Incumbents are not getting ideologically driven primary challengers like the GOP endured in 2010.
But after failing to stop a Trump comeback last year, the party is dealing with more unrest than usual, and leaders who can’t — or won’t — calm the base down.
What happens over the next year will say a lot about where the party is headed into the 2028 election. Schumer and DSCC Chair Kirsten Gillibrand’s recruiting efforts are highlighted by older, established figures like Brown, Cooper, and Mills.
If those three can flip Republican seats, it’ll amount to a rejection of the idea that Democrats need new blood to win general elections.
If the party’s old guard falters, look out.
Notable
- The Craig-Flanagan primary is shaping up as a “test case” for the future of the party, NOTUS reported.